IMO the punditry is missing one of the available analytic "angles" in thinking about this election. IMO a lot of rural white people may have stayed home rather than vote for either BHO or Romney. In their eagerness to see the US become a "multi-culti" kaleidoscope of peoples and groups the media are beating the drum hard for the GOP to turn itself inside out to become a slightly more rightward leaning version of the Democratic Party. The 2% decline in the share of votes cast by white people is cited as evidence of inevitable decline of caucasian dominance in the USA.
That may be a flawed analysis.
I think a lot of white people in all those red counties pictured above hold deeply racist views concerning BHO. Some of them may have voted for him in 2008 out of fascination with the novelty of the idea of him and as a mute protest against the domestic and foreign policy misrule of the Bush administrations. The financial disaster into which we were clearly falling probably added to willingness to experiment with the Obama idea. After 4 years of his government and endless "cracker barrel" discussion of the notion of a n---r president, many of these folks were completely and irreversibly against him. If you don't think that is true, you need to get out of the blue areas on the map above and talk to people. You may be afraid to do that and you may be justified in feeling that way. In my years as a business consultant I learned not to take foreign clients out into the countryside for meetings, recreation, etc. In general they perceived a profound difference in the attitude of the rural people and wanted to flee back to the blue enclaves.
At the same time, the Mormon factor was in play in this election. The polling of rural people, especially white evengelical Protestants is generally all about talking to people who have overcome their doubts about Mormons as Christians. The polling is not extensive among those who would not vote for someone who they think belongs to a secretive, non-Christian cult. Those people probably do not want to talk about this to poll takers.
If you seek a net effect from my hypotheses, it seems likely to me that the conclusion reached by quite a few citizens was that they preferred not to vote at all rather than vote for either of two unacceptable candidates.
That effect may have played a significant role in the result. the Republicans should be careful in doing their "homework" before they start making themselves into Democrats. The potential white vote out there in "flyover" country may be larger than what was showing in this election. pl
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012
Great point, sadly I might have been wrong on.
Posted by: Jose | 08 November 2012 at 01:29 PM
Jose
"sadly I might have been wrong on" What? Me? I am not a party man, never was and will not be. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 November 2012 at 01:30 PM
Some proof of the racism out there and they all appear to be young:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jpmoore/the-31-worst-people-on-the-planet
Posted by: Swampy | 08 November 2012 at 01:44 PM
Anyone see what the percentage of turnout was for registered voters? Or votes that went third party?
If has been reported I missed it.
First Obama election I wrote in Chuck Hagel just for the hell of it..had nothing to do with race and I am not a republican, I just liked Hagel, was among many that urged him to run.
This time I voted for Obama out of abject fear of Romney and Iran war and his I-First backers and advisors.
Entirely possible some rural white voters, for reasons of race or religion or plain general disgustedness just didn't bother to vote.
Posted by: Cal | 08 November 2012 at 02:24 PM
Swampy
I know a broad spectrum of white people in Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. I love these people but their heads aren't "screwed on" right on this. The older ones are not different. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 November 2012 at 02:28 PM
WAPO reporting in its ELECTION section today that 72% of make white voters voted. So 28% of male white voters did NOT vote. Also that Romney received at least 60% of the male white vote that actually voted.
Not sure if any of the above accurate but that is my quick read. I would argue if accurate supports PL's conclusion in the post!
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 08 November 2012 at 02:47 PM
The simplest explanation is that many people realized that Romney was a lying SOB. As someone who has had to engage with a lot of lying SOBS in the venture capital and private equity business Romney did a very poor job. His total and complete lack of empathy with ordinary little people has been on exhibition since the start of his campaign - notably offering Rick Perry and Ten Thousand dollar bet in a public debate.
This is not to say that Obama is any more or less ethical than Romney, but he acts out much better.
Posted by: Walrus | 08 November 2012 at 03:04 PM
Sadly I do not have to ponder on your theory having validity because I have similar exposure and experiences. My wife summed it up brilliantly last night and dates us both. One of our favorite movies of all time is Blaze'n Saddles. Not just for the somewhat sophomoric slap stick humor, but the biting satire woven throughout.
"The Sheriff is nearer!"
"No....The Sheriff is a N----r!"
More beans anyone?
Posted by: agin' cajun | 08 November 2012 at 03:11 PM
Racism runs deep in those minds and souls. My Bro-in-law who passed away in '12 was VERY bigoted against "others". He would spew hateful cuss words re blacks, Hispanics, or whatever group seemed to upset him at the time. Politically he was a"union man" Democrat, though, and tended to vote the party line for economic issues. When Obama was the Dem candidate in '08, my bro-in-law accepted him with the rationalization, "Well, he's half white." He had a black co-worker that "worked his ass off and not like those OTHERS." Then his daughter married a VERY DARK young man form Bangladesh-again fully accept the guy because he worked steadily and provided. My oldest son married a co-ed from Mexico City who charmed him. My youngest son married a gal from China who he met in Belize. My bro-in-law accepted these "aliens" as full members of the family as they were "not like the others". But.....I continued to hear his bigoted hate words to the groups at large, not as loud but still there in his fears, resentments, ignorance.
Posted by: Al Spafford | 08 November 2012 at 03:16 PM
A quick drive up I-66 and out to Shenandoah National Park will prove out your theory. We took this drive a few weeks ago and saw multiple Obama signs defaced. Some were spray painted, others tore down or ripped. They were the only politic signs treated in this manner, including other Democratic candidates. The defaced signs were a large portion of the scarce Democratic signs posted. The farther you move away from Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria you get the more this is the case.
Posted by: Abu Sinan | 08 November 2012 at 03:37 PM
Abu Sinan
Yes and I think this is generally true across the red counties area. It saddens me to see such behavior. Many of their ancestors were better men. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 November 2012 at 03:43 PM
In Dec '08 I was driving down to spend time with my son and family in Austin, Tx, driving thru eastern Tx and around Dallas I had several instances of people honking at me and flipping the middle finger, with angry looks on faces, as they roared by me. My initial thought was that somehow my "Yankee" Michigan license plate irritated them, then realized in was the Obama bumper sticker on the back , as the previous yr driving thru that same stretch none of this had occurred. Everything was fine when I got to Austin, though. As any true Texan will tell you, "Austin ain't really Texas!" This yr I will take off or cover the Obama sticker when going to Texas in Dec.
Posted by: Al Spafford | 08 November 2012 at 03:56 PM
The Secret Service, I fear, will have an even more enormous job ahead these next 4 yrs!
Posted by: Al Spafford | 08 November 2012 at 03:59 PM
Col: Speaking of better men, in Ron Chernow's "Washington: A Life," he reports that General Washington invited Cornwallis's officers to dine with him after they surrendered at Yorktown.
What a gift this man was to our country.
Posted by: Matthew | 08 November 2012 at 04:13 PM
After all the talk about the importance of the Christian vote during the last decade, it seems like pollsters and politicians suffered a massive attack of amnesia.
Why is no one but the colonel talking about the Christian fundamentalist vote, which ostensibly elected Bush 43 in 2004?
I must say that I loved the irony of giving Christian "values voters" a choice between a black and a Mormon. And, like the colonel, I wondered which candidate would benefit from being the lesser of the evils, if either.
When presented with a choice of the lesser of two evils, I voted third party. The outcome in my state was all but decided anyway, so why would I waste a vote and not take an opportunity to register my discontent with both of the evils?
Posted by: JohnH | 08 November 2012 at 04:24 PM
I saw the same thing with my father, when 42 years ago before my half Mexican daughter was born he told me in words I will not repeat that she would not be accepted. I needed a ride home from the hospital after having her and my father was the only one available. As he held her and they bonded, surprise she became his favorite and Mexicans were no longer on the unaccepted list. He was still prejudice against Blacks and Asians however.
Posted by: NancyK | 08 November 2012 at 04:42 PM
My husband worked the phone back for the Obama Campaign here in Wake County NC. One of the callers reached a man, who presumably had been registed Democratic, and he replied to her "I would not vote for that n----r for dog catcher. The woman calling was African American and she was sad but just responded have a good life.
Racism is so insidious, passed on from one generation to the next, unless somehow the light comes on and we realize, we are all humans, we are all Americans.
Posted by: NancyK | 08 November 2012 at 04:48 PM
I'm not saying you're right, though I suspect you are. I'd want more numbers that what have been presented to say for sure. I do know that Romney alienated a huge number of folks by his attitude - he expected this to be handed to him on a silver platter. He paid no attention to the polls, letting others do that work. His campaign did no GOTV efforts whatsoever, leaving that to the RNC. He and his campaign put virtually no work into this at all. And yet, in spite of doing virtually no work to win, he was obviously stunned at the outcome on election night.
The American Taliban vote or lack thereof was surely a factor but I do not know how much. I'm pretty sure they know very little about Mormonism, or they'd have run screaming for the hills when the Romney caravan pulled into town. Having spent a significant amount of my life with a "jack" Mormon, I frankly know far more about their religion, and how they tick, than I would about the fundamentalists. If anyone knows how Romney was perceived by the true believers, I'd like to know.
Posted by: The Moar You Know | 08 November 2012 at 04:48 PM
TMYK
"I'd want more numbers" Numbers won't tell you anything when people lie to you. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 November 2012 at 04:54 PM
COL,
"it seems likely to me that the conclusion reached by quite a few citizens was that they preferred not to vote at all rather than vote for either of two unacceptable candidates."
ISTM that this was a large cause for why voter turnout declined in 2010 and allowed the so-called Tea Party (aka well funded faux grassroots GOP) to command such an election win. And with the win, they derailed 2 full years of government action on a wide variety of important national policies. 2010 made it necessary for the more populous blue counties to raise turnout once again to protect what they view as their way of life.
It remains to be seen if 2014 will be a repeat of 2010 or 2012.
RP
Posted by: RetiredPatriot | 08 November 2012 at 04:58 PM
Bill "O'Really!" was on the tube talking his spew about how the 50% of Americans voted Obama in because they wanted "stuff and things" from the Federal gov't. Does he not know that the people in the "Red States", not the "blue", have by far the largest transfer of tax $ by the federal gov't (from the "blues" to the "reds"). So, it is the Romney supporters, by and large, that are the "takers".
Also, remember "Joe the Plumber"? Well, he exemplifies how LOW the Republican Party has sunk. He actually won a US House Repub primary in Ohio, but lost in the gen election. In his post election tweet, he called the voters "morons", must a been looking in a mirror
Posted by: Al Spafford | 08 November 2012 at 05:07 PM
I think there's truth in this. I have also observed a little class-ism in rural whites of my acquaintance, similar to the opinion expressed by my uncle (a non-Mormon who lives in outback Utah): he wouldn't vote for BHO, and he wouldn't vote for Romney because he reminded my uncle of "every a**h*** boss I've ever had."
Posted by: EGrise | 08 November 2012 at 05:25 PM
Col. Lang:
You have a good and accurate view of what happened with many whites and the Romney campaign used a lot of dog whistles to promote those racist sentiments. They also energized the opponents.
There will be a civil war within the GOP and right now I would bet on the far right to prevail. At least until the GOP only manages to put together less than 100 EV's.
It has frequently been pointed out that CA leads the way and the GOP is close to political sect status there. Unless there is a GOP 5.0, it will spread.
Posted by: Lars | 08 November 2012 at 05:28 PM
Great point, sadly I might have been wrong on the matter. I got cut off or didn't type.
Posted by: Jose | 08 November 2012 at 05:59 PM
RetiredPatriot
Minorities and young voters tend to show up at the polls in greater numbers when voting for President than on the off-POTUS-year elections, while Whites vote in equal numbers both times. It would be interesting to see why they don't think the off-year elections are as important.
68% of Jewish voters cast their ballots for Obama, down from 78% in '08, still a greater percentage than white males as a whole. Bibi's influence wasn't as important on American Jews as he had hoped, or as many worried, it would be.
Posted by: optimax | 08 November 2012 at 06:44 PM