Sic Semper Tyrannis

We are headed for the cliff.

 
 

"Late Thursday, House Republicans said they rejected an offer from the Obama administration that was presented by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and White House Congressional Liason Rob Nabors in meetings with lawmakers on Capitol Hill. The $4 trillion offer would have raised taxes $1.6 trillion over a decade and cut $400 billion from Medicare and other entitlements, to be worked out next year. It would also have extended the payroll tax cut, raised the estate tax to 45 percent on inheritances over $3.5 million, kept Medicare reimbursement rates from being cut (the "doc fix"), extended unemployment insurance and added $50 billion in infrastructure/stimulus spending in the first year, with more such spending in the future. House Republicans characterized the offer as a joke. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, called it a "step backward, moving away from consensus and significantly closer to the cliff, delaying again the real, balanced solution that this crisis requires."   CBS News

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I am coming to the conclusion that neither party wants a solution to the "fiscal cliff" dilemma.  If they did they would make a deal and they would do it today.  Instead, the parties seem to see an advantage in allowing the various disasters to occur.  If they do that then it becomes theoretically possible to blame the other side for; higher taxation, higher unemploymet, lower securities markets, etc.  If that is what they are doing it is a reprehensible and risky idea.  pl 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57556312/obama-taking-fiscal-cliff-fight-to-the-public/

SST Potpourri - 28 november, 2012

"Despite  official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been  “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy  military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions of dollars each year. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently addressed the success of U.S. efforts against al Qaeda, saying “al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened in Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Its most effective leaders are gone. Its command, and control have been degraded, and its safe haven is shrinking….we have decimated core al-Qaeda.” The U.S. must still “finish the job” in Afghanistan, Secretary Panetta added, calling for continued commitment on both military and diplomatic fronts. "  Afghanistan Study Group

http://www.afghanistanstudygroup.org/2012/11/26/al-qaeda-decimated-but-us-considers-heavy-military-footprint-in-afghanistan/

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This is all nonsense.  The Afghans are not going to agree to a SOFA that gives US forces legal immunity in their  country and that will be the end of it.  The Pentagon should start preparing for that event.  pl

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William Hague has said today Britain will back the Palestinian bid for United Nations observer status if they agree to peace talks with Israel.  The UK will abstain from debating the issue at the UN General Assembly as there are no guarantees Palestine president Mahmoud Abbas will negotiate.   Express.coDespite official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions

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So, the US and Israel will vote against non-member 0bserver status for the PA?  Why does the US continue with the farce of pretending to be an "honest broker" in this dispute?  The soon to be disunited Britain will abstain unless the Palestinians give up a right to press charges against Israel in the international courts?  The Palestinians will win the vote in the General assembly and then prefer charges against such as Natanyahu, Barak and Avigdor Lieberman.  This will expose these Israelis to extradition action by various member states.  Then Israel can be a prison for them in much the same way that Gaza is for the Palestinians.  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/9708521/Britain-will-abstain-on-Palestinian-bid-without-assurances-says-William-Hague.html

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"Fresh clashes broke out in Cairo on Wednesday near Tahrir Square, as riot police fired tear gas and charged at Egyptian protesters angry about a move by President Mohamed Morsy to extend his powers." CNN International

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Egypt is on fire again.  There were 100,000 anti-Mursi demonstrators in Tahrir square yesterday.  The US media is obviously avoiding the subject of the imposition of a tyranny in Egypt.  It seems that the revelation of their own naivete two years ago is too much  for them to cope with.  And then there are the naifs and neocons in the governmenr who still cling to their hopes.  pl

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/28/world/meast/egypt-protests/?hpt=hp_t2

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"About 14 percent of the 1.4 million troops in the active-duty military are women. About 280,000 women were deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan. About 150 women died in those two conflicts. Although there may be growing support in the military to opening some jobs in combat units to women, there remains stiff opposition from the infantry, where the physical demands — like walking long distances carrying heavy loads and handling bulky weapons — are most demanding. In a widely circulated article, a female Marine Corps captain who served in Iraq and Afghanistan wrote in the Marine Corps Gazette this year that seven months in Afghanistan left her physically broken, with muscle atrophy in her leg and an ovarian condition that left her infertile. “I am confident that should the Marine Corps attempt to fully integrate women into the infantry, we as an institution are going to experience a colossal increase in crippling and career-ending medical conditions for females,” the article’s author, Capt. Katie Petronio, wrote. "  NY Times

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If I recall correctly there is a provision in law aganst womens' service in certain combat specialties in the infantry, armor and SF.  If that is so, then congressional repeal of that provision would also be necessary, but since the Congress can be expected to do anything "catchy" that appears popular, well...  I think that since these women see this as a civil rights jobs program issue they should be given the chance to "try it on." My only hope about this is that physical standards are not lowered to make this easier.  War is an equal opportunity employer.  It would be most unfortunate if some of these job seekers literally have to be carried.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/28/us/servicewomen-file-suit-over-direct-combat-ban.html?_r=0

 

 

New Sale story on TA

"The Awakening." 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2012/11/download-the-awakening.html

 

Open Thread - 27 November, 2012

I have to do some catch-up work today for my consulting business, invoicing, etc.  pl 

More Logrolling on Syria from the Washington Poat

"None of the battles alone represented the kind of decisive military victory that the rebels need if they are to claim control of an entire city or province and prod the international community for greater demonstrated the capacity to capture any of the country’s major cities, and whether they will ever be in support. The rebels, most of them grouped loosely under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army, have not a position to dislodge the regime from the heavily guarded capital without help is in question." Liz Sly

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It should be added that the menagerie of rebel groups has not been able to hold ANY ground at all against government forces when they wish to retake it.   It seems Sly knows which way the wind blows at the Post.   It is well established that that the editorial board of the Washington Post is in thrall to the neocons and the Wilsonians.  Now, it appears that front page "news" is also to be the instrument of interventionist propaganda that the rest of the paper has been.

I make it a practise at Washington meetings on Syria to challenge the data.  I do this because there is no accurate data except that held under secrecy by the US Government.  Such challenges are protested as unfair because there is much "data" broadcast by the rebel propaganda machine.  This propaganda is inherently unreliable.

Nevertheless, we now have two Washington analysts, Jeffrey White of WINEP and Joseph Holliday of the Institute for the Study of Warfare (a Kagan/Nuland dominated thinktank) proclaiming that the forces of the Syrian government are in decline.   Thus far they say that their conclusion is based on rebel "data."  White is a retired DIA executive and analyst and Holliday is a military reservist who spent some time in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I suppose he is a captain or a major in the reserves.  Are they really basing their estimate of the Syrian civil war's "direction" on BS from the rebels or do they have better information than that?  Surely they are not feeding us more BS from the IDF.  If not that, then what?

One would think that the rise of pharaonic rule tinged green in Egypt would give pause to the naive and the cynical.  Surely the analogy to Syria is clear.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-rebels-making-advances/2012/11/25/1cfcc8cc-372c-11e2-9258-ac7c78d5c680_story.html?hpid=z3

 

 

Hezbollah chief warns Israel

"Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel Sunday that any war with Lebanon would see thousands of rockets fired on Israeli cities.

Nasrallah's televised warning comes just days after a tenuous cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the end of Ashura, a religious holiday for Shia Muslims.

“If the confrontation in the Gaza Strip given its blockade included missiles reaching 40 to 70 kilometers [into Israel], then the radius of a battle with us will reach occupied Palestine [Israel] from the Lebanese border to the Jordanian border and the Red Sea,” Nasrallah said, according to the Daily Star.

“From Kiryat Shmona to Eilat,” he continued, in reference to Israel's most northern and southern cities.

Nasrallah has previously warned that it now has an arsenal of weapons that could reach Israel's largest city Tel Aviv."  Global Post

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Israel and the "Israel Friendly Community" should take this warning seriously. 

"As of 2010[update], the Israeli government believed Hezbollah had an arsenal of more than 15,000 long-range rockets stationed on its border with Lebanon. Some of these missiles were said to be capable of penetrating cities as far away as Eilat." Wiki on Hizbullah  

Israel's nightmare ought to be a situation in which war with both HAMAS and Hizbullah ocurs and 20,000 odd artillery rockets and short range ballistic missiles are fired at their population centers,  Iron Dome worked reasonably well against HAMAS artillery rockets, but even at the end of hostilities after a week of bombardment by Israel, HAMAS was still firing salvos of rockets at Israeli targets.  HAMAS has buried pre-aimed rockets that are very difficult for the Israelis to locate before they are fired.

A war in which both Islamist groups "unloads" the whole inventory at Israel would produce high casualties and much damage in Israel.

Would there be a lot of damage in Lebanon?  Yes.  Would that deter Hizbullah?  No.  pl  

 

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/israel-and-palestine/121125/hezbollah-chief-warns-israel-marking-e

 

 

The Army at a Crossroads - TTG

For much of this year, Sgt. Maj. Raymond F. Chandler III, the Army’s top enlisted soldier, has traveled to bases around the world with a simple message: “We’ve allowed ourselves to get out of control.” His solution has been a raft of new regulations governing tattoos, the length of soldiers’ sideburns and the color of the backpacks they are allowed to carry while in uniform. The tighter standards are intended to improve discipline in a force that is recovering from an exhausting decade of war. But some of his fellow troops viewed the new regulations as one piece of a larger, more worrisome trend in the Army as it confronts an uncertain future. Instead of embracing change, some officers worry that the service is reverting to a more comfortable, rigid and predictable past. 

“We are at a crossroads right now, and I don’t get the sense that we know what we are doing,” said Maj. Fernando Lujan, a Special Forces soldier who has served multiple combat tours. “I am worried about the Army.” (Wash Post)

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So says Greg Jaffe in today's Washington Post. The Army may be at a crossroads, but I do not share the apparent trepidation over the Sergeant Major of the Army's raft of new regulations and tighter standards. Nor am I as worried about the Army as Major Lujan is. 

The world is changing, belts will tighten and the Army will change. That is inevitable. SMA Chandler is doing what he can to manage this change. He wants a disciplined force capable of handling whatever comes its way. For more than a decade I've seen Army enlisted personnel and officers wearing every combination of uniform imaginable in the Military District of Washington. It bothered me. At times, it embarrassed me. I grew up with Army Summer and Army Winter. Our uniforms were… uniform. I'd say we're about due for some tighter regulations. 

However this is not the focus of the story. What will the Army do with less resources and a changing defense strategy. We've been through this before. I began my career in the days of the hollow Army. We were undermanned and under equipped, supposedly suffering from a post Viet Nam syndrome or something. My twenty-five man rifle platoon was full of pot smokers and wise guys. They were a pain in the ass in garrison, but they were a fighting force to be proud of in the field. Their godfather was Command Sergeant Major Snead. The soldier in the picture. He would take each soldier arriving in the battalion on a tour of the hall of honor explaining the regimental history and pointing out each battle trophy. It was a chilling experience hearing him call out each battle streamer as he held it over his head before clipping it on the battalion colors during our organization day parades. To this day I can only refer to him as Command Sergeant Major Snead. This is the kind of intangible thing that glues the Army together during rough times. 

We made do with what we had. When the battalion had no fuel for training, we walked to the training areas with the mortars and 90mm recoilless rifles. We trained heavily in strongpoint defense, withdrawal under pressure and breakout from encirclement. We also trained to meet every other ARTEP task. Knowing the basics, we would adapt to all else. We were prepared to deploy anywhere in the Pacific, SWA or even Europe. Ambiguity was a way of life. The Army emerged from this period as a strong disciplined fighting force. We will do so again this time. 

Jaffe mentions the Army plan to "regionalize" combat units. Brigades and divisions will focus their training on specific deployment plans. They will conduct training missions and joint exercises with friendly forces in the region. This is nothing new. We did this in the hollow Army, too. However the added emphasis on cultural and language training is new. Jaffe probably learned this from Major Lujan. This is how Special Forces have always trained and always will train. I like this idea for combat units as long as the basic tasks of combat are not forgotten. Do not try to make the conventional Army into a Special Forces light. It won't work. 

The Army will downsize. I hope they will start by replacing the vast majority of contractors with active duty personnel. We need mess halls and mess teams, not dining facilities run by DynCorp. Then dump half the generals. There will still be plenty. At some point the defense strategy must change. It should happen before the Army starts adapting to the new reality, but I'm not holding my breath. No matter what happens, the Army will emerge just fine and remain true to its motto… This we'll defend.

TTG

Lincoln: A Brilliant Film with a Disturbing Subtext - Kieran Wanduragala

Barack Obama is said to have drawn much inspiration from Abraham Lincoln and his “Team of Rivals”, to be a close reader of the Doris Kearns Goodwin work by that title, itself a chief source for the Spielberg flick. And a great film it is too, largely thanks to the utterly compelling portrayal of the man by Daniel Day-Lewis.  

The film tells the story of the 13th Amendment’s passage, forever outlawing slavery in the United States - a great moral achievement however you slice it. The stirring emotion one feels when the legislation finally passes, and the prayers of the black men and women onlookers are answered, and as Lincoln himself looks like a crushing weight has been lifted - all mask the central political message of the film: a calculus of executive power according to which the end justifies the means. 

 

Bibi lost at Gaza

Natanyahu looks weak.  The generally militaristic and nationalist electorate in Israel will make him pay for that in the election.  Bibi chose to mobilize for war against HAMAS and then drew back his hand when faced with; Obama, Mursi, the international media and continuing and defiant HAMAS rocket fire out of Gaza.  Iron Dome worked but but the fire out of Gaza continued unabated and Israel faced the possibility that Hizbullah might join in the barrage at some point.

The Palestinians in Gaza are celebrating because in the end the Israelis blinked.  pl 

 http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/23/opposition-parties-lambaste-netanyahu-for-ceasefire-in-gaza/ 

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK22Ak03.html

 

Mashall says HAMAS could accept Israel

In this interview Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal declared a position on Palestinian statehood that is nearly identical to that of his Fatah rival, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, in an interview with CNN aired Wednesday.

"I accept a Palestinian state according [to] the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as the capital, with the right to return," the Hamas leader told Christine Amanpour in Cairo.

Pushed about his party's refusal to recognize Israel, Mashaal said such a declaration could only be made once a Palestinian state has been created.

"After this state is established, it decides its standing toward Israel," the Hamas leader said.  JPost

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This is much the same thing that Mashall insisted on saying on Charlie Rose's show in 2010.  Rose appeared to be unhappy with this and kept questioning Mashall in the apparent hope that he would express some anti-semitic thoughts.

IMO Mashall can say this until his head falls off or is blown off by the "Israel friendly community" and nothing will result.  Israel does not want peace with the Palestinians on any sort of basis of equality.  The PA has been sufficiently subjugated with money and fear to produce a peace of unequals.  HAMAS has not been subjugaed yet.  The struggle will continue indefinitely.  pl

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11032 

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=293084&rz=n_22nov12

 

 

Will "iron dome" work against ballistic missiles?

The "iron dome" anti-rocket defense system appears to have functioned well in the recent Gaza crisis.  There remain questions as to whether saturation of the system defense by Hizbullah's massive rocket and missile inventories  could occur, and more importantly, does this system work against ballistic missiles.  pl  

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Nov-22/195872-hezbollah-missiles-would-be-test-for-iron-dome.ashx#axzz2CzMQp5d5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_domestic_weapons_production

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missiles 

 

"Tell Old Pharaoh..."

22 November declaration

• All investigations into the killing of protesters or the use of violence
  against them will be re-conducted; trials of those accused will be re-held
• All constitutional declarations, laws and decrees made since Mr Mursi
  assumed power cannot be appealed or cancelled by any individual, or political or governmental body
• The public prosecutor will be appointed by the president for a fixed term of
  four years, and must be aged at least 40
• The constituent assembly's timeline for drafting the new constitution has
  been extended by two months
• No judicial authority can dissolve the constituent assembly or the upper
  house of parliament (Shura Council)
• The president is authorised to take any measures he sees fit in order to
  preserve the revolution, to preserve national unity or to safeguard national
  security.

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"Go Down Moses. Tell Old Pharaoh to let my people go..." An African American Hymn.

Mursi has "cracked the code." So long as he assists the "Israel friendly community" with its insoluble Palestinian problem, he can do whatever he likes in Egypt or anywhere else.. The military subvention from the US? Don't worry about it. It's "in the bag." Mursi's assumption of power marks the end of Egypt's recent experiment with the possibility of actual representative democracy in a country with little demonstrated talent for that form of government.  With Mursi's apparent success at mediation over Gaza, Egypt resumes her natural place as one of the grand arbiters of political life in the Middle East.  The US created this situation by its abandonment of Mubarak.  Now Mubarak et al will be tried again. Expect a flight out of Egypt by secularists and Chhristians as the import of this naked assumption of dictatorial power sinks in.  pl

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20451208

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/58950/Egypt/Politics-/Morsi-declaration-hailed-by-supporters,-deemed-cou.aspx

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20458148

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving at Signal Knob, Virginia

New Athenaeum Post

"Happy Thanksgiving" From The Heartland, AKA Mason's Hot Rods

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2012/11/happy-thanksgiv.html

 

 

 

What About the Pilgrims?

"It's all very exciting to imagine that," Speth said, standing on the dock at Founders Pier as the crew worked to prepare the vessel for a week-long celebration. Alexandria is one of six port cities the ship will visit this summer during a promotional tour to kick off a year-long commemoration of the 1607 Jamestown settlement.

There will also be stops in Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Newport, R.I., and Boston. Numerous other celebrations are planned throughout the year, and a Web site devoted to teaching young students about the ship's first journey offers free lesson plans to educators.

The Godspeed -- a re-creation of one of the three ships that carried the country's first permanent English-speaking colonists from England to the commonwealth, where they landed May 14, 1607 -- replaces a replica built in the 1980s. It will also serve as an exhibit at Jamestown Settlement, a living-history museum of 17th-century Virginia.  Washpost

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1607 - Jamestown.

1620 - Plymouth

1630 - Massachusetts Bay colony

Get it?

1607 is 13 years before 1620.

1607 is 23 years before 1630.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jamestown_Settlement_(1607%E2%80%931699)

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Pilgrims?

In 1622, the Jamestown colony had a population of around 1200.  In that year "strategic warning" failed yet again and an unexpected Indian attack on outlying farms and settlements killed 400.  20 women were carried away into slavery (Indian Slavery).

Yes.  It is true.  People in the Virginia Colony were just trying to make a living in a New World.  They were not ideologically motivated exclusivist religious fanatics.  Deplorable..

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/26/AR2006052601936.html

"US Military Battling To Stay In Afghanistan Past 2014" - The Guardian

"Afghanistan and the US have opened talks to keep American troops in the country  after most Nato forces go home in 2014, but the thorny question of immunity for  American soldiers, which in effect ended the US role in Iraq last year, is  likely to prove a stumbling block.  

The issue has been thrown into sharp relief by the Seattle trial of the US  army staff sergeant Robert Bales, who is accused of the massacring 16 Afghan  civilians, mostly women and children, during a shooting spree at their homes in  March. US prosecutors are seeking the death penalty but many Afghans, including  some of the victims' relatives, want to see him brought before one of their own  courts."  The Guardian

Read more:  http://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-battling-to-stay-in-afghanistan-past-2014-2012-11#ixzz2CgJcMgUR

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This is going to go exactly the same way as the negotiations with Iraq went over a SOFA.  This is not a mutual security pact.  That kind of agreement was not a problem in Iraq.  A SOFA gives US forces legal extra-territoriality while in a given foreign country.

The case of SSG Bales is illustrative of the point of a SOFA.  Without a SOFA the Afghan government could demand that Bales be handed over for trial under Islamic law.  Actually, they could demand that any soldier be handed over  for any charge they wanted to make.

The wonkery across the world, the anti-Americans, the naive, etc., would probably think that a great idea.  Why should soldiers not be thrown to "the dogs"  or "the wogs"  if that is convenient.  After all, they are soldiers.  Isn't that the purpose for which they exist?  If they were worth more they would be working for a thinktank in Washington.

In spite of such sentiments, the SOFA problem will kill negotiations for a continued US presence.  The US military will not accept a SOFAless agreement and neither will the US population and its representatives in Congress.

Karzai may think that our desire for SOF basing in his "country," will cause us to bend on this.  It will not.  The generals, the wonks and the business looters may think that the "good times" will "roll on."  They will not.

Sooo, the US presence in Afghanistan will end at the end of 2014.  It will be lonely in the embassy.  pl  

 

Egypt Secularists and Christians Abandon Constitutional Planning

"Members who threatened to leave the assembly also included former Arab League chief and one-time presidential candidate Amr Moussa, assembly spokesman Wahid Abdel-Meguid, liberal politician Ayman Nour, and constitutional law professor Gaber Gad Nassar. On Saturday, the Liberal Wafd party and representatives of Egypt's churches also withdrew from the assembly. The assembly has already suffered a number of withdrawals since 11 June, when the Egyptian Bloc parties – including the Free Egyptians, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party and the leftist Tagammu Party – initiated a walk-out, followed by the Karama Party, the Socialist Popular Alliance Party and the Democratic Front Party, to allow greater representation for women, young people and Coptic Christians, while also registering their objection to "Islamist monopolisation" of the assembly. "  Ahram Online

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The Obama administration is well on its way to realization of their apparent goal of creating an "authentic" Islamist government in Egypt. 

This is on a par with the Obama Administration drive to destroy secularism in Syria and any number of other countries from Afghanistan to Morocco.

Well, when you are advised by neocons and kids still wet behind the ears, what should you expect?  pl  

PS -  TWV.  Yes, I voted for him, but not for his foreign policy. 

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/58501/Egypt/Politics-/Revolutionary-youth-group-leader-quits-Constituent.aspx

The US Sponsored New Syrian Government. - Clifford Kiracofe

Washington's Soviet style "provisional government in exile": "The leaders of the old Syrian National Council, which was largely dominated by the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, had strenuously objected to having their outfit unceremoniously wound up. After days of wrangling in a luxury hotel in the Qatari capital of Doha, they were brought on board, having been promised 40 percent of the seats in the leadership.  In the end, while Hillary Clinton made much of putting together a more “representative” body to serve as a front for the US-backed war for regime-change, the new coalition amounts to the same gang of thieves, intelligence agents and Islamist politicians, refurbished with a bit of “diversity.” Seats in the leadership have been reserved for minorities, including the Alawite sect, which are overwhelmingly hostile to the so-called “rebels,” and for women.  Heading the body is a Sunni cleric, Sheikh Ahmad Mouaz al Khatib. Its vice presidents include Riad Seif, the Syrian businessman and confidante of the US embassy in Damascus who served as Washington’s standard bearer for a new “united” opposition. Its general secretary is Moustafa al-Sabagh, who was chairman of the Syrian Business Forum, a front of exiled Syrian capitalists that offered to join Qatar and Saudi Arabia in paying salaries to the Syrian “rebels.” There is no indication that any of these figures have any real connection with, much less control over, the sectarian militias, Islamic jihadists, foreign fighters and suicide bombers who are playing the principal role in waging a civil war for regime-change inside Syria. There is even less evidence that any of them have a base of popular support inside the country.  Nonetheless, they are being sent on tour to seek recognition from the Arab League and the “Friends of Syria,” comprised of Washington and its allies, as the first step toward turning the coalition into a provisional government to be installed on “liberated” Syrian soil.  Among the “principles” agreed to by those forming the new coalition is a commitment “not to take part in any dialogue or negotiations with the regime” in Damascus. This represents a direct US repudiation of the UN-brokered agreement reached in Geneva last June in which Washington committed itself to supporting “peaceful dialogue and negotiation” to bring an end to the civil war in Syria and a transition to a new constitutional order. ..."

http://syria360.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/one-week-after-us-elections-war-threats-against-syria-mount/

Any further data on the various persons in this new grouping?  Clifford Kiracofe

E-mail down

My turcopolier e-mail was down for a day because of expiration of the domain registration.  What e-mail I would have received for tht period is lost.  pl

Syria, France, Gaza, Natanyahu and Obama

"After almost twenty months, Syria's internal war appears to be approaching a decisive stage. Since early October, rebel forces have been on the offensive in key theaters, while regime forces are stretched thin, increasingly on the defensive, and giving ground. The conflict is evolving from a war of attrition (with the two sides primarily exchanging casualties) to a war of positions, with rebel forces seizing checkpoints, reducing the regime presence in the provinces, interdicting roads, and pressuring key regime strongholds and facilities. Barring a major change in Bashar al-Assad's approach or massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, the regime's military situation will likely continue to deteriorate, perhaps dramatically, in the weeks ahead."  Jeffrey White

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"... while regime forces are stretched thin,"

White's conclusion that the Syrian Army is "stretched thin" is based on a belief that most of the Syrian Army is unreliable and cannot be used in counter-guerrilla operations.   If that is true and if only 30% or 50% of the Army is usable, then the failure of the government to mount a continuous series of operations to clear the north of rebel forces is understandable.  White does not make it clear what the basis is for his judgment that large parts of the Syrian Army are unreliable.  He is a meticulous analyst and i am sure that he has some solid basis for this judgment.  There are parts of various governments who have the means to know exactly which Syrian units have been employed and with what frequency.  Is this article a reflection of that kind of certain knowledge? 

White also opines that foreign assistance to the rebels would have a significant effect on the outcome of the war.  Well, of course it would.  The Syrian forces are very dependant on their equipment;  aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery pieces to be exact.  Training and equipping of the rebels with weaponry that is effective against these systems  would be very effective and possibly decisive.  The training could be done in Turkey or Jordan.  France has recognised the rebel kaleidoscope of groups as the government of Syria.  Is this a prelude to French action in this area?  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syrias-internal-war-turns-against-the-regime

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"The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exposed Obama and is forcing a reset of their mutual equations even before the US president gets started on his second term in the White House.  Asia Times

-----------------------------------------

Yes, the Gaza attacks are about Obama and not about HAMAS.  Natanyahu is demonstrating to BHO that he can do as he pleases and that the Congress will back him and not the president of the United States.  It will be interesting to learn what Obama will do about that, if anything.  pl  

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK17Ak03.html

 

My "Dream Team" at Defense and State

I think that nomination of Susan Rice to be Secretary of State would be a bad idea.  This has nothing to do with the Benghazi canard.    She recited the administration's screed on the attack in Libya.  BHO said at his 14 November press conference that he, and not Rice, is the proper target for their animus over Benghazi.  He was quite correct in that statement.  My problem with Rice is that she has often been described to me by those close to her as a hyper-ambitious and ruthless person who would be a threatening presence in the state Department headquarters in Foggy Bottom

At the same time, I think the appointment of Senator John Kerry to be Secretary of Defense would be an insult to the armed forces that he falsely denounced in lying testimony and statements after his return to Vietnam during the war.  The same Kerry faked his participation in a "ceremony" in which he and other malcontents threw their military medals away.  Kerry had bought copies to throw in order to be able to keep his own.

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IMO the president should nominate former senator Bob Kerrey to be Secretary of Defense.  Kerrey was a long serving and moderate member of the senate from Nebraska.  He was awarded the Medal of Honor for his service in VN as a SEAL officer.  He was badly wounded in the same war.  Kerrey was president of the New School University in New York for a long time.  He would be respected by the armed forces.

John Huntsman, Jr. would be my choice for Secretary of State.  A moderate Republican, his nomination would demonstrate the sincerity of BHO's desire to "work across the aisle."  Huntsman was US ambassador to China and speaks fluent Chinese.  China should be a major focus of our diplomacy.  To have a secretary of state so familiar with that country would be a significant advantage.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Kerry

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.

 

The Lebanese Factor in the generals' downfall

Does this picture look like your usual conception of the Middle East?  It was taken at a fashion show in Beirut a couple of years ago.  The show was for the collections of Lebanese designers.  Those are Lebanese women.

People in the US and in many other places shy away from the idea of cultural generalizations but I do not, with caveats, sometimes.

I have worked on the general subject of the Middle East and the Arab countries for 40 years.  After I left government I worked for a Lebanese owned construction materials company for 10 years.  The company's executives were almost entirely Lebanese citizens of all confessions.  I spent a lot of time in Beirut and Lebanon in general.  I know the country and I know them.

It Is Beginning to Read Like Peyton Place--by Foresman

According to the Telegraph, General Allen Commander in Afghanistan had some type of (not necessarily) sexual with the other woman, Ms. Allen.

I guess we should wait to see what other shoes shall fall!  Foresman

US oil/gas independence soon.

"The IEA said it saw a continued fall in U.S. oil imports with North America becoming a net oil exporter by around 2030 and the United States becoming almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035. "The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said. IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told a news conference in London he believed the United States would overtake Russia as the biggest gas producer by a significant margin by 2015. By 2017, it would become the world's largest oil producer, he said. The United States will rely more on natural gas than either oil or coal by 2035 as cheap domestic supply boosts demand among industry and power generators, the IEA said. "  Reuters

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This will make a big difference in the US economy and with regard to the long standing relationship to the Saudis.  pl  

http://news.yahoo.com/u-overtake-saudi-top-oil-producer-iea-132331660.html

New Post On The Athenaeum

Veterans Day 2012

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2012/11/veterans-day-2010.html

Petraeus Agonistes II

 

Don't cry over this guy.  He has had a hell of a run.  IMO someone  "dropped a dime" on him with the FBI. Once that happened an investigation into the limits of his lover's access to classified information through her relationship with him was inevitable.  The FBI has the power to investigate anyone in the US Government, including the director of the CIA, and they relish the responsibility.  It is in the grand tradition of J. Edgar Hoover.  A secondary consideration that is unappreciated by civilians is that as a retired US Army officer Petraeus is still subject to UCMJ and its prohibition of adultery, a crime under UCMJ punishable by a dishonorable discharge and a year in prison.  It is unlikely that this would happen but it is still the law.  If you don't like that, tell Congress to change the law.

Who would have "squealed" on him over his paramour?  There are various candidates so far; her husband, someone at CIA who did not appreciate everything he did, someone or some group in the US Army.

He was never much liked in the Army.  "Clever" is a term of art in the Army for someone "foxy,"  slippery and politically adroit.  He was always clever.  At West Point, which is, after all, a college like all others, the appreciation of teachers can be carefully cultivated by students.  He excelled at that.  Every WP graduate becomes an Army officer.  Relationships established with officer staff there affect the rest of an officer's career.  Petraeus married the daughter of the superintendant (president) of the place.  This officer was a major general.  Later he was a four star general.  Throughout his career Petraeus carefully maneuvered to maximize his potential for promotion.  He has a terrible reputation in the Army for egomania smoothly concealed beneath the appearance of the warrior scholar.  He can and has charmed all, or almost all.  His fluency in the English language and his ability to interact with congressmen and the press are superb.

He was not the originator of the armed forces current doctrine on COIN.  He did not triumph in Iraq employing that doctrine.  The improvement in the security situation there happened because he was clever enough to accept marine and Special Forces sponsorship of the "awakening" of the Sunni Arabs to the fact that they did not wish to live under Al-Qa'ida rule.  This led to the creation of the "Sons of Iraq" who, for a time, virtually wiped out the Sunni jihadis.  This gave the Shia Arab dominated government a chance to at least partially assert its power in some parts of the country.  This serendipitous set of events was carefully parlayed in the US media into the creation of an image of Petraeus as the heir of George Marshall.  Iraq is slowly becoming a satrapy of Iran.  Should Petraeus have credit for that as well?

His success" in Iraq led to sending him to Afghanistan to apply the supposedly victorious doctrine of COIN there as well.  We see the reult.

As I said, don't grieve for him.  He had a long run and will now make a lot of money somehow.  He is clever.  pl

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83668_Page2.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Petraeus

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paula_Broadwell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Military_Academy

 

 

Petraeus Agonistes

OK.  Open for business on this until tomorrow when I will have worked up enough bile over this to write a piece in this post.    pl

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/09/covert_affairs

 

 

 

The Republicans defeated themselves.

 
 

The Republicans defeated themselves. 

They did that by allowing themselves to become a closed system in which they would not communicate with anyone outside the system and would not accept information that was not generated within that system.  Half the country is made up of people who refuse to watch anything but Fox News, who listen to no opinion but that of people like Limbaugh and the like and who are enchanted by political pitchmen like Lance Priebus, Ed Gillespie and Karl Rove.  Rove is a man so deluded by his own fantasies that Megan Kelly had to physically go to the Fox News analytic cell during election coverage to correct the on the air effect of Roves' delusions.

What were these massive shared delusions and what errors do they engender?

1- As I have written, the GOP badly over-estimated white turnout for the election.  The party apparatus did not grasp the fact that disdain for BOTH candidates would auto-suppress the vote in their core white constituency.  The GOP did that to themselves by nominating a candidate who in the end was still a "Mormon plutocrat married to a known equestrienne."  There IS real demographic change in the US but the effect of that would have been less in this election if the Republicans had not shot themselves in their various feet by ignoring the actual situation in the electorate.

2- The GOP has to learn to make reasonable concessions to the people who voted Democratic in this election.  John Wilkes Booth asked in his journal "Who's country is this?"  The little book was found on his body after he was killed by federal troops. The adherents of the hard, hard anti-Latino positions of today's Republican Party need to consider the futility of Booth's question.  They need to grasp the idea that the sons and daughters of today's Latino immigrants can be made into conservative Americans if a sincere effort is made to do so.  As I have written the central values of the great majority of Latinos are compatible with a rational conservatism.  Prosperity and a welcoming attitude will make the transfer of allegiance from the Democrats a reality.  That is not to say that the border should not be secured, but, in fact, that process is moving steadily forward.

3- The GOP needs to start nominating electable candidates.  In the old days party bosses picked candidates on the basis of their electability.  Perhaps nomination through the primary election process is not such a good idea.  pl  

                          

Electoral College Results by Population

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

In comments to the recent post on what happened to the White Vote, TTG asked about the electoral college results map adjusted for actual population density.  Its an excellent question, because what we have is that the portions of the non population adjusted map show a LOT of red compared to the blue, the reality is that a LOT more people live in the blue areas than the red.  

For instance in this map from Mark Newman at U Michigan's Center for the Study of Complex Systems shows the red/blue state map by population density (this is NOT the electoral college map, that's below):

Below you can find several maps that adjust for population density and see what I mean.  Links back to the original site below them.

2012 Electoral College Results Map from the Denver Post (showing FL for President Obama as projected):

2012 Electoral Map by population density from Mark Newman at U Michigan:

Here are the 2008 results adjusted for population, also from Mark Newman:

If you click through he's also got this down to the county level for both years with very good explanations of how he's done the weighting for density and what it means.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Cut Defense and Prosecute the Corrupt

 "“U.S. and foreign contractors poured money into a limited number of Afghan powerbrokers who set up companies that were corrupt and did not perform. . . . In many cases, they also paid off insurgents to let them operate,” Cordesman wrote.

He suggested that the government “tightly control the influx of outside money, limit its flow to honest and capable Afghans at every level of government, and provide the transparency to allow Afghans to see how honestly and effectively the money is used.”"   Pincus

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/afghan-corruption-and-how-the-us-facilitates-it/2012/11/05/d7fbce5c-2520-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html

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For years, I have told everyone in this wretched city (Washington) including Pincus that senior Americans (not sergeants) and their retired government buddies have been participating for years in the awarding of huge contracts to Afghans in or close to the government.  This is not news.  pl

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"... supplemental budgets were sought for the two wars, putting the costs, now near $1.5 trillion, on a credit card. Meanwhile, Defense’s core budget has risen about 4 percent a year, adjusted for inflation, except for the past two years. As Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) points out, President Obama’s plan to reduce 100,000 Army troops and Marines over the next five years will still leave ground forces larger than those existing at the time of the 9/11 attacks. Then there are the funds wasted on failed efforts to modernize weapons systems. According to a 2011 CSBA study, “Over the past decade, at least a dozen major programs were terminated without any operational systems being fielded. The sunk cost of the terminated programs . . . for example, totals some $46 billion.” The Pentagon also is paying hundreds of millions to upgrade some systems, such as the F-22 stealth fighter plane. "  Pincus

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/time-to-terminate-the-warfare-state/2012/11/07/67955d68-2502-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html

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We can't afford this Defense Department.  Change the foreign policy, kill the acquisition contracts, pension people off after shrinking the ground forces and come home.  pl    

 

The missing white vote in 2012

IMO the punditry is missing one of the available analytic "angles" in thinking about this election.  IMO a lot of rural white people may have stayed home rather than vote for either BHO or Romney.  In their eagerness to see the US become a "multi-culti" kaleidoscope of peoples and groups the media are beating the drum hard for the GOP to turn itself inside out to become a slightly more rightward leaning version of the Democratic Party.  The 2% decline in the share of votes cast by white people is cited as evidence of inevitable decline of  caucasian dominance in the USA.

That may be a flawed analysis.

I think a lot of white people in all those red counties pictured above hold deeply racist views concerning BHO.  Some of them may have voted for him in 2008 out of fascination with the novelty of the idea of him and as a mute protest against the domestic and foreign policy misrule of the Bush administrations.  The financial disaster into which we were clearly falling probably added to willingness to experiment with the Obama idea.  After  4 years of his government and endless "cracker barrel" discussion of the notion of a n---r president, many of these folks were completely and irreversibly against him.  If you don't think that is true, you need to get out of the blue areas on the map above and talk to people.  You may be afraid to do that and you may be justified in feeling that way.  In my years as a business consultant I learned not to take foreign clients out into the countryside for meetings, recreation, etc.  In general they perceived a profound difference in the attitude of the rural people and wanted to flee back to the blue enclaves.

At the same time, the Mormon factor was in play in this election.  The polling of rural people, especially white evengelical Protestants is generally all about talking to people who have overcome their doubts about Mormons as Christians.  The polling is not extensive among those who would not vote for someone who they think belongs to a secretive, non-Christian cult.  Those people probably do not want to talk about this to poll takers.

If you seek a net effect from my hypotheses, it seems likely to me that the conclusion reached by quite a few citizens was that they preferred not to vote at all rather than vote for either of two unacceptable candidates.

That effect may have played a significant role in the result.  the Republicans should be careful in doing their "homework" before they start making themselves into Democrats.  The potential white vote out there in "flyover" country may be larger than what was showing in this election.  pl  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

Oil prices - 2012

"A year ago SST had a piece on oil prices at the height of the Libyan revolt. There were all kinds of theories expounded on why oil prices should escalate beyond reason. It is time to look back and see what really happened during the last year. Using WTI one month futures at Cushing, OK as a base, the price was $94/bbl a year ago. It is $87 today. The highest price during the year was about $110 (caused by the usual geopolitical crap in the Middle East) and the lowest $78 (caused by a temporary glut of oil on the US Gulf Coast due to a refinery startup failure)."  R. Whitman 

Download OIL PRICES 2012

Bibi's "friend' has been re-elected.

".... former Israeli ambassador to Washington, Sallai Meridor, suggested that Obama would not easily forget that Netanyahu had created a perception that Israel wanted Romney to defeat him. Obama is "very strategic, very disciplined", Meridor said during a panel discussion on the U.S. election at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "But I don't think we can just assume that what happened between them over past four years will have just evaporated," he said. "When people fight for their political life and have the perception that their partner is trying to undermine their chances, it's not going to disappear.""  Reuters

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Yes, "what goes around comes around."  "Payback is a bitch."  Donkeys as well as elephants have long memories.  etc.  I can't remember any more of these old "saws" at the moment.  Seems to me we ought to "unleash" people lke Carville and Plouffe to help the Israelis with their coming election.  "Fair is fair." (ah, another one) As I recall we did that once before with significant effect. 

As for the issue of Bibi's bluster and threats to attack Iran with or without US cooperation and support, I will say again (irony alert) that Israel should safeguard its sovereignty and dignity by doing whatever it wishes to about Iran and should do it alone.  The right wing in Israel "knows" that only a successful (more irony)  Israeli demonstration of its regional hegemony will suffice.  Go for it!   Do it without the US.

And then there is the issue of the Palestinians .  Bibi's coalition has no intention of agreeing to anything like a sizable, truly independent Palestine.  The (more irony) "uppity' Palestinians are trying to sneak into the UN as an observer member state.  If they achieve that goal, Israeli leaders will be liable in the international courts for what they do to a member state.  Good!  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/07/us-usa-campaign-israel-palestinians-idUSBRE8A61D920121107

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/07/binyamin-netanyahu-barack-obama-victory

 

 

Score Card - 2012

As we anticipated here:

Obama/Biden won by more than 290 votes in the electoral college.

Tim Kaine won a senate seat from Virginia.

The Democratic Party retains control of the US Senate.

The 2016 election season begins tomorrow.  Does this mean that Virginia is now a blue state?  No, it does not.  pl

"Renewed Brawl in Israel Over Iran Attack?" by Harper

 

The below item, posted today by the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank with close ties to the IDF leadership, indicates that there is renewed concern that Netanyahu will revive plans to launch a preventive unilateral strike on Iran early next year if he is reelected.  I am told that the publication of details of this wargame, which includes a warning that an Israeli strike could lead to an out-of-control escalation ultimately triggering World War III is part of a push-back, once again, by sane elements in the Israeli national security establishment who distrust Bibi Netanyahu as a messianic lunatic who could lead Israel and the world into a devastating war.  This comes at the same time that other Israeli national security insiders are revealing that Bibi tried to launch a preventive strike against Iran in 2010, but was rebuffed by the IDF leadership and others because he did not have the go-ahead from his Security Cabinet or the Knesset.  British independent TV Channel 4 is going to air a broadcast tonight detailing the 2010 attempt to launch a preventive attack, and just how close things came to a hot war.

http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10461

"Pro-settler Israeli organization calls for an end to US aid to Israel" Adam Horowitz

 "Ethnic Jews currently living in the United States overwhelmingly support and often lobby (albeit not as aggressively as Lockheed Martin) for American aid to Israel, not because the Jewish state genuinely needs the money but because an economic and political connection between the government they live under and the government of their people’s country allows them to feel a greater sense of personal security in a foreign land. The notion of Israel serving as a United States fortress in the Middle East allows America’s Jewish community to believe it can avoid ever having to confront questions of dual-loyalty."  Adam Horowitz quoting a settler.

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These American Jewish soldiers and their chaplain don't seem to realise that they are living in a "foreign land."    The "divorce" can't come soon enough.  pl  

 

http://mondoweiss.net/2012/11/pro-settler-israeli-organization-calls-for-an-end-to-us-aid-to-israel.html

"Outdated Rubbish" by Richard Sale

 
 

"Leaders painted themselves in heroic colors claiming that their wealth was due to their skill, diligence, insight, forethought, perseverance, guts, cunning etc. The result was a romantically tinged picture of what was merely unbridled ruthlessness, and what was not seen or discussed was the fact that they were at heart rough, shrewd, skilled opportunists whose methods were devious, unstable, brutal, corrupt, mean, nasty, rapacious, gross, vulgar and totally unprincipled men who had simply battened on the blood of the American system to suck it out. But they were successful, and so “success became the visible evidence of spiritual merit,” as Schlesinger said. Individuals who made good deserved the gratitude and applause of all mankind. This verges on the disgusting." Sale

 

Download Outdated Rubbish

Say Goodbye to Romney.

Fearless forecast for tomorrow's election and whatever the lawyering may be thereafter:

- Obama/Biden wins in the electoral college by at least 290 votes.

- The Democrats retain control of the senate.

- Virginia elects Tim Kaine to be a US Senator.   pl

 

Common sense from the Washpost editors...

"... there has been one consistency in the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: a contempt for the electorate. How else to explain his refusal to disclose essential information? Defying recent bipartisan tradition, he failed to release the names of his bundlers — the high rollers who collected hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations. He never provided sufficient tax returns to show voters how he became rich."  Washpost

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It is unusual for me to agree witht the neocon dominated editorial board of the Washington Post but today they "got it right" and the "devils" should be given their due.

In today's leading editorial the Post denounces Romney and his crew for their evident contempt for the American voter.  Romney seems to believe that citizens have no memory at all and that they will not remember his previous utterances even though they are displayed in the media through the magic of digital recording. 

Romney also  seems to believe that the presidency can be gained in the same way that  a stockholder's meeting can be steamrollered and the shareholders "herded" toward results contrary to their own interests.

On the same page the Post cautions against an unwise attempt to tinker with the mechanism of the electoral college. 

Will wonders never cease?  pl 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitt-romneys-election-campaign-insults-voters/2012/11/02/69fcc1fc-2428-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_story.html?tid=pm_opinions_pop

Paypal Buttons

Typepad is unable to fix the donation buttons on SST and TA.  At their recommendation I have installed buttons directly connected to Paypal for those who wish to make a supportive donation.  Use of this button does not require that you have a Paypal account.  Winter is coming.  Hint!  pl

Questions on the LDS Church for Romney

 
 

"Reviewing Romney's statements - and "inelegant misstatements" - throughout this campaign, we have now come to feel that full disclosure about the shaping influence of religion on his character is of even greater urgency to the voter.  It is no longer about the postponed Mormon Moment, for that has been lost.  It is about Romney himself.  Who is this man?  What settled convictions does he have?  Is Romney the face of Mormonism?  Or, as some Mormons have come to feel, has he so far distanced himself from core values of his religion that they feel constrained to emphasize that he is not that face?"  Huff Post

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You hear people say that Romney should not be questioned about his religion because in the United States there is no "religious test" for public office.  This is a basic error.  The US Constitution specifies that there shall be no religious test for office.  This is a restriction on the behavior of government, not on the behavior of citizens.  All the provisions of the constitution are restrictions on the behavior and power of the federal government and by extension through the 14th Amendment on the state governments.  Nothing restricts the right of citizens to consider ideologies and "mind sets" in deciding who to vote for.  IMO  such a consideration is desirable.  What is religion but an ideology?  Would it not be appropriate to ask an avowed anarchist to clarify his views before voting about him?

The theology of the LDS church is no more "off limits" than that of any other religion.  It may be that one believes that all theology is nonsense.  I would not argue the point, but the importance of theology to a believer and the effect on behavior and policy can not be dismissed.  "As man is, God was" is a tenet of the LDS faith.  What effect does it have on someone to believe that right behavior will lead to a personal destiny as savior of a planet other than this one?  Does such a belief lead to a lessened concern for this planet as opposed to other planets where personal destiny beckons?  In the area of Mormon custom, what are we all to think of the LDS tendency to a reliance on a communal survivalism that causes Mormons to prepare for a post apocalyptic world in which families must rely on their hoards of food and supplies.  Is this a vision of a Hobbesian universe in which there is war of "all against all" with the Latter Day Saints arrayed against the gentiles?  How does that kind of belief affect future Romney policy about public responsibility for disaster relief?  In the present emergency I have heard Ann Romney speak of the need for us to care for each other.  Is she speaking of private charity or government responsibility?  At the end of this Huff Post piece there is reference to a kind of Mormon "takiya," (the Shia practice of dissimulation for the faith).  Is this the basis for the obvious lying in the Romney campaign's political propaganda?  This is the campaign that declared that it would not be restricted by fact-checkers.  This is the campaign that lied about jeep production and the attendant jobs being exported to China.  Are we to think that the candidate does not know that his campaign lies?

IMO people are right to consider the effects of religion on behavior in public office.  They were right to consider it in the case of JFK and they should consider it now.  pl  

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helen-c-whitney/romney-mormonism_b_2068070.html

More "freedom fighter" war crimes in Syria

"The video, which could not be authenticated independently, appeared to have been made in Saraqeb, a town in Idlib Province in northern Syria that has been the scene of particularly brutal fighting between rebels and loyalists in the 20-month-old conflict. In the video, 10 prisoners are shown being forced by their captors to lie next to or atop one another in what remained of a largely destroyed structure that may have been a military checkpoint. The antigovernment fighters, whose precise identities or affiliations were not clear, yell “Allah Akhbar!” or “God is great!” as they kick and herd the prisoners into a pile. Then they open fire. "  NY Times

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Savages.  Savages.  pl

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/56977/World/Region/Syria-rebels-tolerate-extremists-despite-Wests-fea.aspx

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/world/middleeast/un-says-syria-execution-video-shows-apparent-war-crime.html?_r=0

Pat Lang's endorsements

FWIW I run a blog that is all about foreign policy, military affairs and my other various interests.  I generally do not endorse candidates but the choices in the coming national and local elections are so stark that it would seem cowardly to stand aside and await an outcome.  I recommend the following choices for president, congress and in the city of Alexandria:

For president and VP of the United States - Barack Obama and Joseph Biden.  The US economy is recovering slowly from the disasters inflicted on it by the profligate actions of the Bush Administration and the Congress on both sides of the aisle.  GDP is rising, unemployment is falling, employment is rising, the stock market is doing well.  Profits are high in corporate America.  What is needed now is the patience needed to let the recovery continue.  What is NOT needed is an administration intent on renewed de-regulation of the financial industry, a de-regulation that could only lead to further "looting" of the economy by the Gordon Gecko crowd.  In foreign affairs, another Obama Administration is a lesser evil for me.  Like Romney, Obama appears to subordinate the interests of the US to those of Israel, but at least he has shown the courage to "push back" against Zionist demands for effective operational control of US forces in an attack against Iran.  Neo-Wilsonian influence is strong in the Obama foreign policy apparatus.  An ideologically driven sponsorship of revolution in the Islamic World regardless of the identity of the revolutionaries is only acceptable because it is not as bad as the probable domination of a Romney policy by the neocons who surround him.  Is Romney really interested in foreign affairs?  It is probably true that he is not and that he is shamming interest in pursuit of the only thing he seems to want - the presidency as a life prize with which to feed his CEO ego. 

For US senator in Virginia - Timothy Kaine.  I simply cannot stand Allen. 

For member of the House of Representatives from the 8th district of Virginia - James Moran.  I do not wish to see the extreme right further strengthen its grip on the House. 

For mayor of Alexandria - Andrew Macdonald.  The present mayor has shown himself to be an agent of massive commercial re-development rather than a defender of the city's historic character and quality of life.  For that reason I recommend his opponent.

For city council in Alexandria - Alicia Hughes, Robert Wood, and Frank Fannon.  I decline to recommend a full slate.

pl 

"Reading Henry James" by Richard Sale

"My wife, who is an ambitious reader, recently set out to read Henry James two-volume work, The Portrait of a Lady. Feeling she should enjoy some solidarity, I began to read it as well. I have read it three times, but long ago, and I truly believe that you never read the same book since all of evolve mentally all the time. Things which were mediocre at the beginning become startling vivid over time. So I set out." Richard Sale  

Download Reading Henry James

Ignatius on Benghazi and "magic" gunships

"As for armed drones or AC-130 Spectre gunships, officials say that they were too far away to help. Unclassified data put the range of Predator and Reaper armed drones at 770 miles and 1,150 miles, respectively. The nearest known base for armed drones, in Djibouti, is about 1,700 miles from Benghazi. Regarding the Spectre gunships, Little said: “No AC-130 was within a continent’s range of Benghazi.”"  David Ignatius

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Yes, nasty embarassments result from; distances and times and numbers of thingies.  That's what adequate risk assesments, measuring distances on maps, figuring out tonnages and throughputs of supplies are all about.  I spent months at the Armed forces Staff College in 1974 beginning to learn how to plan expeditions large and small.  How to "get there with the most men," supplies and sustainable fire power was always the "name of the game."  This will always be the name of the game.

It may well have been impossible to make that "consulate" hard enough to make it capable of holding out until help came.  Does that mean that the place should have been abandoned?  This is not necessarily the case.  Sometimes the national interest requires the acceptance of a lot of risk.  Ask soldiers about that.  Ask them that rather than chanting the meaningless mantra of your thanks at them. 

Should scarce national level assets like Hercules gunships (AC-130) be dedicated to stake-outs for the purpose of protecting little posts like this one at Benghazi?  There are 25 such gunships in the whole USAF. 

If such aerial firepower had been available should it have been used against unknown enemies on the ground without regard to the effect on the inhabitants of Benghazi?

These are real questions.  These are questions that should be answered We should be talking about  these factors not some Baron Munchausen nonsense about magic carpets that span the globe in an instant.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-benghazi-questions-the-administration-must-answer/2012/10/30/02d02538-22e2-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_story.html