Return to Azawad - TTG

Mali's main Tuareg rebel group said on Sunday [7 October 2012] it was no longer seeking to carve out a sovereign desert homeland, softening its stance as it seeks Western support to rout Islamists that have taken over the region.

In April the MNLA had declared an independent state in Mali's north called Azawad, days after a coup in Mali's southern capital Bamako, but Al Qaeda-linked Islamists later hijacked the rebellion and took control of the vast territory.

Western and regional powers are now mulling military intervention to retake the zone amid fears an Islamist safe haven could destabilize the region, and MNLA is aggressively seeking backing for a role in the effort.

"We declare a right to self-determination, but that doesn't mean secession," said Ibrahim Ag Assaleh, an MNLA official, following a meeting with regional mediator and Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore in Ouagadougou. (reported by Mathieu Bonkongou for Reuters in Ouagadougou)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is a smart move by the MNLA. It provides an opening for the still amorphous interim government in Bamako to cooperate with the Tuaregs to take on the Salafists of Ansar Dine and AQIM. Without this concession by the MNLA, cooperation would be impossible. No Malian government has acquiesced to the succession of Azawad. Not the present interim government. Not the coup's National Committee for the Restoration of Democracy and State (CNRDR). Nor did any of the governments preceding the coup. I seriously doubt acceptance of Azawad independence could be voiced by any faction in Bamako with aspirations to eventually lead the country. 

During the late 90s, the Malian government of Dr. Alpha Oumar Konaré made a decision to hitch his country's wagon to the American star. Working with Dr. Konaré's DGSE, Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga, we (DIA) formed a closer intelligence relationship with Mali. Separate from this effort, 10th Special Forces Group conducted several MTTs (military training teams) to Mali over the last decade. Maiga later became Mali's foreign minister under President Amadou Toumani Touré. He was one of the ministers arrested during the coup. I have no idea what happened to Maiga since then. I wish the gentleman well. Interestingly, the leader of the coup, Captain Amadou Sanogo, was a participant in our IMET (International Military Education and Training) program. He studied English at Lackland Air Force Base and took courses at Fort Huachuca, Fort Benning and Quantico. 

With the opening provided by the MNLA and our history with the Malian military, I think this is an opportune time for us to do something positive in the region. We do have a vital interest there. The Salafist jihadists are well on the way to establishing a vast base in the area and they are out gunning every other force in the region. Is this an existential threat? Not by a long shot, but if ignored I believe it will eventually bite us in the butt. We should support whatever ECOWAS manages to cobble together to confront AQIM along with any other regional efforts. And we should stop our insane insistence on the election of a new government in Bamako before we do anything. Even Captain Sanogo thinks that is unrealistic given the current dire situation. If we wait, AQIM and Ansar Dine may end up in Bamako and no one will ever see a "free and fair" election. On the diplomatic front we should push the interim government in Bamako and the MNLA into an agreement to at least set aside their differences and cooperate to take on AQIM. 

The Malian army is in tatters and the Tuaregs of the MNLA have been knocked back on their heels. However, the Tuaregs are probably still the most capable force opposing AQIM. AQIM's imposition of sharia law in Azawad is grating on the populace. They are wearing out their welcome , so to speak, and are creating the conditions fro a Tuareg backlash. I would like to see a Special Forces Battalion, perhaps 1/10 based in Stuttgart, get the long term mission to reorganize, train and advise both the Malian and Tuareg forces. Probably a third of the battalion would be on the ground at any one time. Don't recreate a Camp Lemonnier or CJTF-HOA. And for god's sake don't try to recreate a modern army where there never was one. Think of forming a hybrid insurgent - national army rather than a neatly organized series of combat brigades. Use the arms and equipment on hand. Fill the holes as needed. Provide maintenance and ammunition. Teach shooting. Teach combat leadership. Much of the Malian army still uses the SKS. No problem. Von Lettow-Vorbeck's askaris were largely equipped with the 1871 Mauser firing 11mm black powder cartridges and they did quite well in East Africa.

TTG 

Comments

[Tyler]

Sir,

Always heard the Tuaregs were like the Pashtuns, Kurds, etc in that they liked a good fight and were capable fighters in their area of expertise. Have you heard the same?

[The beaver]

@ TTG

Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga is living in Paris or just outside:
http://www.rfimusique.com/actu-musique/musiques-monde/album/20120924-concert-paix-mali-montreuil

Last see during that concert on September 24th and he has been in the written media and Radio France Internationale during the summer months.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Mr. TTG:

You assert, without much elaboration, that vital interests of US are at stake there - in the Sahara Desert.

Could you please elaborate?

And when you use the word "vital" - can you please furnish a yard-stick, by way of comparison?

[The Twisted Genius]

Tyler,

They are a traditionally nomadic pastoralist society characterized by camel herding and caravans. Colonialism and development over the last century have caused them to become more sedentary. They seem quite able to hold their own and more in a fight, but I feel literature and cinema of the "Beau Geste" variety have overemphasized the fierce warrior nature of the Tuareg. They are artists as much as warriors.

[The Twisted Genius]

Beaver,

Glad to hear he is alive and well and living in Paris... although a little heart broken. He is a journalist by training and trade. I doubt we've heard the last of him.

[Tunde]

TTG,
Your recommendation of 10th grp has much to commend but there seems to be moves afoot to put an African face to intervention in Mali in the form of an ECOWAS-led force. Malians have voiced their displeasure at the ECOWAS plan. I suspect that the ECOWAS plan is being ginned up by the EU and the US. The Nigerians, whom are been tapped up as being the principal source of troops, see this as an opportunity to make more money from the international 'peace-keeping', UN underwritten money machine.
I have a mate in Bamako right now ( a journo) and he's calling me to find out what's going on (and I'm in Nigeria) !

[mbrenner]

On national interests: I would amend the term to say "significant interests."

The only one ever mentioned is "terrorism." That is to say, the Sahara as aplanning and operational base for launching terrorist attacks against the United States. No one, however, official or otherwise, ever has said how this might be done by whom with what motivation. No one ever has explained why a Saharan oasis is a better launching pad than Hamburg or Londonor or any number of other places.

Finally, would we reach the same judgment about the threat if we had not assiduously built the military capability to deploy Special Forces and related assets in such out-of-the-way places - evn with a sorry record of failure?

[The Twisted Genius]

Babak,

I think the containment of Salafi jihadist groups worldwide is in the interest of the U.S. AQIM and its affiliates are not just staying in the Sahara. They are spreading to North, West and East Africa. I don't recall reading anything like a "Mr. X" article or "The Long Telegram" on this subject, but it is a stated goal of our military strategy. I'm not the person to write a "long telegram" on the subject, but I wish a George Kennan would appear and do so.

I admit that I vacillated about using the word vital, perhaps there is a more appropriate word. However, I do feel that the unchecked spread of these groups and their influence will eventually have a detrimental effect on our lives in the U.S. Like communism, the object of our last containment policy, Salafi jihadism will probably eventually collapse of its own weight, but we should be hastening that day.

[confusedponderer]

Speaking of Lettow-Vorbeck, he surrendered undefeated at the end of World War I. Quite a feat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Campaign_%28World_War_I%29

Two questions:

Is his campaign studied in the US armed forces as a case study?

Can anyone recommend literature on the subject (beyond what's listed on the Wiki page)?

[mbrenner]

TTG

What you describe as the national interest is exactly what has been the foundation stone of our GWT for the pasr 11 years. It is not a strategy for protecting the United States from attack per se. It is a war against Islamic fundamentalism which encompasses salafists, jihadis, anyone who sympathizes with them and/or is hostile to the United States anywhere in the world.

Isn't it obvious by now not only that that war is unwinnable, it also augments the number of people in each category.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Thank you for your comment.

I hope you are not offended when I respectfully completely disgree with you for I cannot credit Jihadist, etc. to be as formidable a threat to US as USSR was.

I can admit that they could be a nuisance to certain states but their spread in Africa, in my opinion, has very little bearing on US security within the American continent.

For example, I think what is happening in Mexico is much more vital to US than what occurs in Mali.

In regards to containing Jihadists; you must defeat them on the field of ideas as well. US and her allies - such as they are - cannot do so. Only Iranians can, and they won't.

[Tony]

This question is to all who may have the answer.

Why the salafists/jihadists ideas are spreading over the ME and African region?

(and I agree with Babak that Salafists must be defeated on the field of ideas)

[Fred]

Lettow-Vorbeck is certainly an interesting man. There's a short write up here:
http://www.firstworldwar.com/bio/lettowvorbeck.htm

Apparently he wrote an autobiograhpy that was translated into English, (My Reminiscences of East Africa?) though I haven't read it.

[Fred]

So all the salifist in the world, and any potential recruits, can only infuenced by Iranians? Please explain that?

[The Twisted Genius]

Dr. Brenner,

You summed up the problem with our GWOT succinctly. Why wage war against terrorism? Why not wage war against aerial bombardment? It makes just as much sense. It should not be a war against Islamic fundamentalism. You are right. It is unwinnable and self defeating. GWOT was successful in one thing... providing a bottomless bucket of money for every bureaucratic and contract expansion that could claim a connection to the nebulous idea of GWOT.

Kennan didn't call for containment of communism. His specifically identified the Soviet Union as the focus of his alarm, just as we should have identified specific groups.

[The Twisted Genius]

Babak,

Of course I'm not offended. You raise good points and I appreciate the critical review. I absolutely agree with you that the jihadists must be defeated on the field of ideas as well. The Iranians would be a natural ally in this, as well as those of the Sufi tradition like the Tuaregs.

[The Twisted Genius]

CP,

I've admired von Lettow-Vorbeck since high school. It's unfortunate that I have never heard of a study of his campaign in East Africa in all my years in the Army. I found a link to his book under the Gutenberg Project, I believe. I'll provide a link later. However, I did just found this student paper from the Army War College. I'll read it later.

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA404449

[Babak Makkinejad]

Nobody in EU, in Russia, in India, in China, and in North America can put on the table a set of ideas and arguments by means of which the ideas of (neo-)Salafis and others of their kind can be rebutted.

This must be accepted as a fact.

Iranian Doctors of Religious Sciences of Islam and their politico-religious leaders have both the legitimacy, the scholarship, and the authority to combat these Sunni extremists.

No one else in the World of Islam is capable of doing so - not Saudi Arabia, not Al Azhar, not Sufis, and certainly not Mulsim Brotherhood (in Egypt or in Turkey).

The Salafis are not saying anything that is not in the Sunni Tradition, in my opinion.

[The Twisted Genius]

Here's the link to von Lettow-Vorbeck's book. Enjoy. It's excellent.

http://archive.org/details/myreminiscenceso00lettuoft

[The Twisted Genius]

Tunde,

The more the merrier and the sooner the better. It will take whatever force ECOWAS puts together with a revitalized Malian army and the MNLA Tuaregs to put down AQIM and their allies. I still think the Tuaregs will be key. Looking forward to any tidbits you or your mate in Bamako come across.

[Lord Curzon]

TTG,

Good to see some still prefer a proper rifle to be 7.62 rather than the abomination that is 5.56!

[Jose]

Good post TTG and great comments to all posters, but to defeat the Salafist we need to call on Iolaus.

[Abu Sinan]

The problem is with the proposed "Iranian solution" is that there is a large percentage of Sunni Muslims that will reject almost anything that comes from a Shi'a standpoint, especially from the Shi'a establishment and scholars.

Latent anti Shi'a beliefs are widespread in the Sunni Muslim community and amongst many Sunnis active Shi'a involvement in trying to argue against Salafist ideas will actually have the opposite effect, giving the Salafist ideas credibility.

Any change will have to come from within the Sunni community. Just because there isnt any such force at the moment doesnt mean that an outside force, especially the Shi'a, are going to come in and lead any such change.

[Babak Makkinejad]

You will have to wait for a long time for that.

[FB Ali]

I agree with Abu Sinan's comment above. The Salafi/jihadi ideology exists in the Sunni Muslim community, and has to be met and defeated by others in that community. Shia scholars and religious leaders may well have good arguments to level against it, but they will carry no resonance with Sunni Muslims. This is not an intellectual debate; it is a battle for hearts and minds.

It is also not fought just on ideological grounds. The biggest propeller of the Salafi movement is Saudi money and influence. It is strange that the US enables the Saudis to bolster and boost the Salafi ideology and cause (of whom jihadis are an offshoot), and then launches wars to contain and defeat these same jihadis.

AQIM and other similar organizations are the tentacles of an octopus; the heart of the beast is Saudi Arabia.