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27 October 2012

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r whitman

Have you checked out your generator and given it a trial run?? Good Luck.

turcopolier

r. whitman

It has had its scheduled maintenance and will run for 15 minutes today as part of its internal checks and battery charge routine. I expect power to be out here for several days. pl

rick

In Albany, we should be OK, but let's think some good thoughts for Central NY. Those folks don't need another Irene and they looked to be catching Sandy solidly.

Maureen Lang

Stay safe, dear brother, stay safe. I'm betting your decision to install a Class A generator set up is looking better & better these days.

Lars

The rains have moved away here in Central Florida but it is still rather windy and we have a lot of high waves. Still, enough people showed up this morning to vote, which required standing in line for an hour and a half. Hopefully, it will stop some phone calls.

I hope everybody up north takes this storm seriously. It has a lot of potential to do some very extensive damage.

At The Virginia Capes

Tides running 1 foot above normal this morning (Saturday) down here at the Capes. Winds are NE 25 kts, gusts to 30 kts., pressure 1010 mb, falling slowly so far.
Tide forecast into Monday is currently 2 to 4 feet above normal, rain 6 to 8 inches. My guess is tides could run as much as 5 feet above on southern shore of Chesapeake Bay.
Landfall current guess is Delaware Bay or north, but can't rule out landfall on the Delmarva.
Most of Navy has sortied to sea except those in the yards; aircraft leaving now.
Commercial ships no longer anchored near mouth of the Bay; some vessels have anchored in the lee of lower Eastern Shore; two BIG cruise ships inbound at this time, not sure where they will come to anchor.
Widespread power outages expected. Generator ran on Monday, getting more gas today.
There was a minor run in some stores yesterday (Friday) afternoon.
Thermals ready, comforter on bed this morning. Propane range, so hot chow is no problem. Also propane logs in fireplace for backup heat.
My best to everyone in the path of Sandy.

William R. Cumming

Virginia has barrier islands. Before 1933 they were largelyoccupied by hunting estates of wealthy Americans. The 1933 unnamed hurricane devasted these islands. The wealthy land owners gathered together and decided that these islands should not be redevolped but left wild. This was the Nature Conservancy founded with its original land holdings. The Nature Conservancy has a major research station on the Virginia Easter Shore [this consists of Accomack and Northhampton Counties]!

Most other states allowed local development of barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast. In one case a developer even destroyed local library records of an event in 1888 [the start of record keeping of hurricane tracks in the USA and available on a complete basis through NOAA]and that event killed 6-8000 Gullahs! That same island today is fully developed and few understand its total submergence by about 10 feet of water in 1888.

Congress in 1982 based the Coast Barrier Resources Act that attempted to cut off National Flood Insurance and Disaster Relief on undeveloped barrier islands. Despite some successes that statute was gamed and the historyof Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Barrier Islands like those occupied by Ocean City MD and Fire Island NY is largely complete development.

The so-called STORM THAT SHOOK THE WORLD [the name of a book]was the 1938 Hurricane that devasted Long Island and crossed the Long Island Sound and devasted Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

The federal government heavily subsidizes the nations flood plains and their development by utilizing the programs,functions, and activities of a small formerly independent federal agency [prior to March 1st, 2003] now housed in DHS that is called FEMA. Its statutory charge is to reduce disaster outlays but instead it subsidizes States and their local governments for their negligence, sometimes gross negligence, in failing to adopt and enforce building codes and zoning restrictions in their land development efforts.

At The Virginia Capes

AIS shows BIG cruise ships bound for Baltimore. Smaller vessels heading up various rivers for shelter.
Tides 1.5 ft above normal at noon at ChesBay Bridge Tunnel. Winds still 25kts, gusts to 30kts.
Topped off generator. I'm developing a severe dislike of the new safety spouts on gas cans - they leak!

Medicine Man

Good luck and God bless. What a monster storm.

ThomasOfNY

Good luck everyone.

robt willmann

The 8:00 p.m. EDT (0000 GMT/UTC) advisory on 27 October said that Sandy had sustained winds of 75 mph; there will also be gusting winds a little above that. If the winds stay around that speed, it should not be too much of a problem, except for nuclear power plants.

Growing up on the Texas coast, we stayed at home during all the hurricanes, including the monster hurricane Carla in September 1961, which was the ninth largest in U.S. history and the second largest ever to hit the Texas Gulf coast. However, my parents had our house built with storms in mind. Nothing fancy, just diagonal sheathing on the walls and extra bracing under the roof to use the strength of triangles, and tying the whole thing down to bell-shaped concrete piers sunk into the ground.

Hurricane Carla hit us head-on. The sustained winds were around 155 mph or so, with some gusts estimated to be at times around 200 mph. The "storm surge", a phrase meaning high tide, was around 22 feet. We were several miles from the bay, at an altitude of about 34 feet. The surging high tide blasted the areas of the county down by the water. We had a house full of people with relatives staying with us. As a little kid, I thought it was great fun, with kerosene lamps and candles for lighting, sleeping on a pallet on the floor, and so on. The adults were more concerned.

When the eye of Carla came through, it was like a spring day. We went outside, birds came from wherever they were hiding and were flying around and singing, and it was perfectly calm. Then the tough winds returned. After the storm was over, we drove around the county and saw that boats, butane and propane tanks, refrigerators, and other items had been blown inland and were scattered in fields. Some houses had been wiped out except for the commode, which was usually sitting there fastened to a concrete slab.

Fortunately, at that time there was no Department of Homeland Stasi Security, FEMA, the plethora of "emergency management" organizations, and so forth. People who decided to leave did so in an orderly fashion, aided by volunteers in the community with no centralized "authority" trying to tell everyone what to do; the number of people who evacuated from the coast was huge, and it all went smoothly.

Hurricane Claudette came in July 2003. The weather predictors said it would hit land late in the day, so I decided to drive down in the morning rather than the night before. Nature decided to speed things up, the storm moved faster overnight, and I drove right into it as it arrived. Since the winds were not expected to be greater than 100 mph, we did not bother to board up the windows. We parked our vehicles facing north, and waited in the house for the electricity to go off, which it did soon enough. The storm was over by late afternoon. Tree damage was the main result, with some large limbs broken off and lying on the roofs, as there were some gusts around 105 mph or so. And of course an electric generator had to be cranked up.

If Sandy's winds do not get above 100 mph, you should not have to board up the windows or worry much unless you live in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-10-26/more-dozen-nuclear-plants-near-hurricane-sandy’s-path-brace-impactcc

Otherwise, your main concerns would probably be 1) the electricity being off; 2) tree limbs falling on your roof and vehicles; and 3) heavy rain if you are in an area prone to flooding. If you have a motor home, travel trailer, or boat, it should be put inside a secure spot or moved out of the area. If you live in a mobile home or in a home that may be structurally weak, or live right on the water where a high tide might surge, you should evacuate, as should those whose health or age make them vulnerable if the electricity is off for a while.

A storm with 75-100 mph winds can cause damage, but as William Cumming has noted, building standards have not met the reality of being on the coast where the power of nature can become evident.

I wish the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale would disappear, as hearing reporters constantly say "category 1, 2, 3, etc." tells you nothing unless you carry around a copy of the chart or have memorized it. The wind speed ranges tied to the categories also tell you nothing. The chart's purpose is to categorize hurricanes by the type of damage that might be expected, but you don't hear people recite the estimated damage descriptions in each category. Just tell us what the wind speed is and, if you want to use the scale, tell us the expected damage for the specific speed without mentioning categories.

As far as the election is concerned, a related big problem is the awful electronic voting machines. Not only are they the perfect vehicle for undetectable vote rigging nationwide, which the politicians and media are silent about, but also if the electricity goes off, so do the electronic voting machines. Come to think of it, that might be a useful thing.

Mark Gaughan

May everyone stay safe.

The Twisted Genius

Came down I-81 from Binghamton, NY to Winchester, VA today. Must have passed a hundred bucket trucks heading north in preparation for Sandy. We came home a day earlier than planned just to home before it hits. We had to do the same thing last Fall when an early blizzard clobbered Pennsylvania. We did run into snow crossing Ashby Gap that time. I cleaned the gutters, mulched the leaves and winterized my father-in-law's place near Saratoga before we left.

patrick lang

All

The "jenny" as my sister calls it ran like a champ yesterday in its weekly workout. We spent this morning cleaning up after the duckfest last night and securing lawn furniture. etc. We shall see... The duck with sherry recipe sounds interesting. Speaking of Jerez. what's your favorite? Mine is "Cardinal Mendoza." pl

Charles I

Good luck to you all.

Jane

Best to all.

confusedponderer

Who would have guessed: Sandy is a sign that God is angry with the US for defying HIS will on Israel. Writes World Net Daily. I will not provide a link. Headline:

Could 'Frankenstorm' be a sign from God? When we put pressure on Israel to divide their land, we have record-setting events.

This can't be coincidence! Soooo ... what has the most pro-Israeli administration in recent memory done to provoke (and deserve!) Sandy? Or was it the gays again?

Seriously though, last time I looked Hurricanes have no political agenda. I think that the people who this pitch is aimed at are honest in their (imo superstitious) belief that that may be so.

IMO there is no difference in the world-view of a Muslim who shares Al-Ghazali's view that in autumn, every leaf that falls from a tree does so by explicit command of Allah, and an evangelical who believes that God, who after all controls the heavens, sends hurricanes to punish America for this or that, or that rape induced pregnancies are part of Gods plan (a blessing in disguise of a curse?).

They are cut from the same cloth essentially. American evangelicals, in open revolt against the enlightenment and Charles Darwin (and ironically, the imminent but strangely elusive introduction of the Sharia law in America for that matter), fervently try to replicate violently shutting down of the door of ithijad in Christianity.

PS: What is the Wahhabi view on ijtihad btw? Do they reject it, as I suspect, because it leads to deviation from what they see as true Islam?

turcopolier

CP

Yes, they completely reject ijtihad and rely only on Qur'an and their own versions of hadith.

"They are cut from the same cloth essentially." Yes, they are both essentially medieval in outlook. They still live in the "age of faith" as Will Durant called it. The nuns of my youth before Vatican II were much the same. pl

William R. Cumming

IMO Hurricane Sandy response and recovery will not impact the outcome of the 2012 election. But it will have huge economic impacts and have National Security considerations. Key will be damage to transportation and energy critical infrastructure.

Babak Makkinejad

Yes, but the nuns were not the Church; the Church had the heritage of Medieval Philosophy at her disposal and she could and did draw upon that.

turcopolier

Babak

You are certainly correct about the nuns. pl

Charles I

Sandy's edge knocked out power in Muskoka Ontario from Bracebridge to Gravenhurst for for 24 hours. Mine was out 37 hours, thank you generator.

Hope you're all well.

turcopolier

charles I

i think i mentioned that our power was only out overnight. generators are good. pl

ThomasOfNY

My part of New York got hit hard. Large parts of Staten Island was under water, last night's government figures were for deaths were in the low 20s. They seem to be expecting alot more, they are using a junior high school gymnasium as a morgue. Just got power last night, the island had 80-90% of the population without electricity. Three members of my family lost homes, one of which was razed to the ground. No damage at my place thankfully.

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