Mursi as "rational actor."

Mursi and the MB are riding a tiger in Egypt and throughout the Muslim world.  They were elected to create a Salafist (larger sense) sharia law state.  There are still many people who are against this kind of thing in Egypt.  The US did everything it could to deter such people from revolt but they are still there.  Mursi needs to keep burnishing his salafist credentials with his base.  This means defiance of the West, particularly America, and the norms of Western behavior such as; our belief in freedom of speech and the international law involved in the Vienna Convention of 1961 0n diplomatic missions.  A confrontation with the US just fits the bill for Mursi.  He has been to Riyadh and Teheran recently.  Who knows how much money he has been promised in support of such a crisis with the US?  Don'r forget.  The Saudis play it both ways, always.  Mursi and company also understand very well how delicate BHO's position is when operating this close to a very nearly tied election.  Last and by no means least, Mursi is not a "rational choice" kind of guy, in the sense that "rational choice" is understood in Western international relations studies.  Does that means that Mursi does not make rational choices?  No.  It does not mean that.  He makes rational choices.  He is a believer and he chooses Allah first, last and always.  That is the same choice he made when he chose to leave his teaching job in California..  pl

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

I think what people mean by "Rational" is the ability to pursue a course of action to achieve a certain goal.

One could therefore conclude that a criminally insane person is also rational; he or she just has different goals than most people.

The goal in itself may or may not be considered rational.

Were the Kamikaze pilots "rational"?

Or the abolitionists?

Or John C. Calhoun?

I personallty think that human beings are not rational and leave it at that.

Then governance could be considered to be the problem of managing competing irrationalities - both in domestic in the international arena.

[r whitman]

I do not ask for rationality here, just clarity. What should the US foreign policy be in the case of present day Egypt. The ad hoc, make it up as you go nonsense that we have now seems like it was concocted at the local junior high school.

[turcopolier]

r. whitman

we should seek a return to secular rule in Egypt. At the same time we should ignore the horde of little marxists that we have created at AUC. pl

[FB Ali]

The actions of Mursi and his administration can also be seen as largely symbolic, and corrective of the stance of the Mubarak regime (which was, externally, that of a US client, and, internally, secular).

The MB (in Egypt and other countries) has political and religious factions which compete to determine the policies of the party. It seems that in Egypt the MB leadership is mainly composed of political Islamists.

Mursi also has his base to satisfy, and guard his flank against the Salafis (who are essentially religious Islamists).

[Al Spafford]

Here is Mursi's response to Embassy attack:
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5E8KCJ5X20120912

[r whitman]

With respect, we will probably have the MB's around for quite a while. What should our policy be until secular rule is returned, if ever, during our lifetimes?

Are the AUC Marxists that influential? Remember, my knowledge of Egyptian politics is close to zero!

[mbrenner]

r. whitman

Did you ever participate in one of those simulation games when in high school? That is, where bright students played different high US officials (there was also a UN version). The articulate class prodigy always played the president. Now the class prodigy is playing the role of President in the Oval Office.

On a personal note, I once played the CIA Director. The thing dragged on for all of Friday and Saturday - so I snuck off to watch a baseball game on TV. When making a late reappearance, I explained that I had been carrying out a secret mission under deep cover - too secret to divulge. That strikes me is what the rest of the national security team is doing. Frankly, I find that more reassuring than the alternative explanation of why our policies are so mindless.

[turcopolier]

mbrenner

What on earth does that mean? Ah, I see. They have no idea what they are doing. Correct. pl

[Fred]

He could have stopped the mob and done this, he chose not to stop the mob and now just wants to insult us as we know this will go nowhere in the US.

[Al Spafford]

Obviously Mursi is more concerned to satisfy the mob rather than deal with the attack! Where was the military, or have they been neutered by his sacking various generals?

[Arun]

If Egypt-USA relations become hostile - right now, Egypt is neither an ally nor an enemy, as Obama said yesterday - because of attacks on the US Embassy, a dive in Egypt-Israel relations will not be far behind.

I wonder how a hostile Egypt factors into Israeli calculations of a war with Iran.

[Fred]

They might want to save thier AF for use closer to home.

[bth]

Col. a question about secular rule v. democracy. Is secular democracy possible in the ME or is it that secular rule is the best of imperfect options at this point?

[turcopolier]

bth

In most of these countries the majority are firmly lodged mentally in the "Middle Ages." pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

You mean "the Age of Faith"?