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05 September 2012


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How secure is Cantor's congressional seat in November?


Off topic, but this is good news too, from my liberal left perspective:


A Huge Victory for Global Justice
James North
September 4, 2012


I hope that Bibi Netanyahu's response to his October meeting with Obama is not the dreaded and feared "October surprise." If Obama stands up to Bibi, and I'm quite sure he will, Bibi may want to try to scramble the US election if he thinks Obama is on the verge of winning. However, I do think that American public is war weary (and broke) after Iraq and Afghanistan and would resist involvement if Bibi gambles on war.



BHO's analysis must be that Bibi cannot "scramble" the election. pl



Maybe it does reflect the demographic structure of AIPAC's donor base, which may have turned Republican anyway.


"Does AIPAC Have Only Two Major Donors?"

Christian Zionist are Republican anyway, and they are not AIPAC main donors but merely well disciplined "Stimmvieh" (as long as the promise of Armageddon looms) otherwise held in contempt.

The beaver

Bibi may not even be invited at the WH. The meeting could happen in NYC like all the other meetings with other leaders visiting Turtle Bay for the UNGA

The Moar You Know

I think at this point it's pretty obvious how the election is going to go. Bibi not only bet on the wrong horse, he's managed to make a personal enemy of the man who is the leader - and will be the leader for the next four years - of his only ally.

Bad move.



Yes. This may go down as one of history's great miscalculations. pl



No idea. It is a strange, gerrymandered beast that wanders from the Richmond suburbs to the Luray area in the west. pl

The beaver


“Whether the US administration admits it or not, they see Bibi [Netanyahu] as interfering in the US election and gambling on [Republican candidate Mitt] Romney winning,” Beilin said. “Shapiro says relations between countries are good, which is true. But the relations between the two leaders are very poor. I don’t remember it being so bad before, and Israel will pay a price for it.”


With all due respect, I don't see much of a gauntlet thrown down. Obama, like pretty much every candidate for president, supports moving the capital of Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem as a candidate, but doesn't do it as president because of the obvious (and pointless from the US perspective) implications of such a move. The Democratic platform is simply reformed to match the current reality to avoid giving Republicans an opening to attack between the president and party.

Several reports have already surfaced that AIPAC reviewed the platform prior to adoption. This story is sturm and drang of politicking, it does not seem to me to represent any sort of policy shift.


As an example of what I was saying, note how the Dem Platform was originally received by the Jerusalem Post, which has no love for Obama or the Dems:


Democrats unveil 2012 platform, stress Israel ties
By JPOST.COM STAFF 09/04/2012 11:55

Ahead of Democratic National Convention, Obama touts strong bilateral cooperation, "unshakable commitment to Israel's security."

There is hardly a word of criticism. The platform was viewed very positively by Israel until the Republicans made a political football of it.



You want too much too fast and do not understand the necessities of the present political campaign. pl


Colonel, I think you are misinterpreting my original statement. It has nothing to do with what I would want them to say. I'm saying the present political campaign is DRIVING the change: i.e. the desire not to endorse a move of the embassy to Jerusalem when Obama has already made it clear he won't be doing that.

In 4 years, when there is a new candidate, the platform and the candidate will both again pledge to move the embassy to Jerusalem. And again, after election that pledge will be forgotten.

In the meantime, if one is looking for any actually interesting changes in the platform, I'd look to dropping the language on Hamas. That has the potential to be a MAJOR signal that Hamas' year+ long effort at strategic realignment is starting to bear some small fruit.



They won't do anything before the election. Why should they? Afterward may be a different mstter. pl


Colonel: I think you're right, but that may not be his Wall Street buddy Mitt or Bibi's conclusion. If Mitt looks doomed, we must do something. This is something. So let's do it. (I beg the British's pardon.)

The beaver

Read somewhere ( Reuters or an Israeli newspaper) that the WH is using European intermediaries (2) to start discussion with Tehran ( a bit à la Nixon with China). Wonder if it is not the representative of one of those countries who said that Bibi is full of it.... Would it be Switzerland and France?


Charlotte, North Carolina (CNN) - Democrats will update their party's platform Wednesday evening at their convention to include a reference to Jerusalem being the capital of Israel, which was not included in their platform this year but was in previous platforms, Democratic sources told CNN.




WaPo etc saying the change was a personal request of Obama's - he couldn't let us think he had even a millimeter of backbone it seems.


Democrats Restore Language Declaring Jerusalem Israel’s Capital

6:43 p.m. | Updated CHARLOTTE, N.C. – President Obama, seeking to quell a storm of criticism from Republicans and pro-Israel groups over his support for Israel, directed the Democratic Party to amend its platform to restore language declaring Jerusalem as the Israeli capital.

The change, approved in a voice vote Wednesday that had be taken three times because of a chorus of “noes” in the arena, reinstates the line, “Jerusalem is and will remain the capital of Israel” in a section that describes Mr. Obama’s policy toward Israel.

That sentence had been in the 2008 platform, but the Democrats removed it this time, saying they wanted to spotlight other elements of Mr. Obama’s policy and that the platform should reflect a sitting president rather than a candidate for office.


Blue or Red, a Dragon is still a Dragon



Well that didn't last long. It's back in.


he won with 59% of the vote in 2010. It's pretty safe.

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