"Taliban Outflank U.S. War Strategy with Insider Attacks" Porter and Noori

"... the Taliban have power over whether conditions return to a level that would allow resumption of the joint operations between NATO and Afghan forces, which have been touted as the key to preparing the ANA and the police to cope with the Taliban on their own. The Taliban have achieved a strategic coup by creating a high degree of U.S.-NATO fear and mistrust of the Afghan forces. Even if some joint operations are resumed, moreover, they will be limited to those approved by regional commanders, according to the new policy. And White House spokesman Jay Carney appeared to contradict the ISAF “return to normal operations” language, telling reporters, “Most partnering and advising will now be at the battalion level and above.” ISAF Commander Gen. John Allen has tried in the past to minimise the role of the Taliban in the insider killings, suggesting that as little as 10 percent of the Afghan soldiers and police who killed NATO troops were Taliban infiltrators. Most of the killers acted out of personal anger at their Western advisers, Allen argued."  Porter and Noori

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General Allen can argue what he likes but the Taliban have found the key to a stratagem that will give the "coup de grace" to the Afghanistan COIN project.  The possibility of a nurturing, mentoring relationship lay at the heart of the plausibility of the theory of a gradual transfer of power from ISAF to the Afghan forces that NATO has tried so hard to create in its own image.  The Taliban's program of destroying the possibility is lethal to the effort.  General allen says that most of the killings are caused by Afghan hatred of their trainers.  Does he realize what he is saying?

The Afghans are 100% Muslim.  They were such before the US invaded the country and they will be such when NATO has departed.  The notion that they could be transformed into a Central Asian version of Jordan was always a fantasy.  Jordan is a tiny country with a small population where generations of Britishers devoted their lives to the task of seeking to cause the local Arab people to accept the imported princes of the Hashemite dynasty.  This task has largely been accomplished at a high cost in subventions from the British and American governments and the governmental skill and persistence of the Hashemite house.  To think that something similar could be done in Afghanistan, a vast, high, cold, wild place inhabited by uneducated and various peoples who did not speak a common language was simply folly.  For such a task to be accomplished, an effort of generations, the expenditure of trillions of dollars and the expenditure of untold numbers of lives would have been necessary.  That was never going to be, and it was obvious that this was never going to be.

What is going to happen is that the US will accelerate its withdrawal from Afghanistan in the coming year.  A "President Romney" would think initially that he could reverse the withdrawal to please his neocon friends, but he would soon examine the numbers and decide that to continue in Afghanistan would destroy his economic and political hopes for the US.  The Effort in Afghanistan as planned to date requires expenditures and numbers of US forces that can not be sustained.  BHO in a second term would come to the same conclusion but earlier.  He may have done that already.

The Iraq and Afghanistan "adventures" will have cost humanity a great deal.  The anti-Western hostility of the worldwide collective  Muslim mind has been deepened by the experience.  The general hostility of Muslims to the notion of the West has been sharply focused.  At the same time, vast numbers of people in the West and particularly in "flyover" America who previously were only dimly aware of Muslims are now filled with with a great hatred for the "ignorant savages" (their typical terms) who rejected their "civilizing" efforts at great cost in soldiers lives and health. 

The US will achieve energy independence in the coming years.  When that happens all that will be left of US interests in the Islamic World will be the hostility itself and the self assigned US "interest" in Israel.

The long term effects of those "interests" on the welfare of what the Muslims think of as the "'Ummah" will be awesome to behold.  pl  

http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/09/taliban-outflank-u-s-war-strategy-with-insider-attacks/

Comments

[Harper]

I attended a briefing on Capitol Hill this morning where one participant said that 300,000 people were killed in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. I can't vouch for the number, but I think the main point made in Col. Lang's insightful commentary is that we have created a deep hatred among a vast majority of Muslims, through our decade of war, our drone assassinations, our references to Arab women and children killed in these attacks as "collateral damage," etc.

I must add that, from what I am hearing, even the British longterm efforts in Jordan may be unraveling. It appears that King Abdullah II is facing several difference Islamist revolts against his rule, including from tribal groupings that were once the backbone of his regime, who are now joining the neo-Salafi camp.

I guess you're saying that it was a pipedream to think that Kabul would be transformed in Beverley Hills through American and NATO boots on the ground. Is the lesson of this deadly folly sinking in anywhere that you see?

[bth]

I thought the last couple of paragraphs of the article were most telling as it seemed to foretell a partition and civil war.

"...If the foreign forces do not support and leave the Afghan Army in the present condition, things will get worse,” said Amarkhail. He expressed the fear that the result could be that different elements within the ANA will “turn their guns on each other”.
Dawoud Ahmadi, spokesman for Helmand Province Governor Mohammad Gulab Mangal, also expressed the fear that the ANA in the province will not be able to operate effectively against the Taliban if ISAF halts joint operations with the ANA at lower unit levels.
The spokesman told IPS, “We have problems in Helmand province, especially in the North. If NATO doesn’t help in conducting operations at lower level, the Afghan security forces will face problems, because they are not yet ready to launch operations on their own in that part of the province.”

[crf]

If the Afghan government were to fight the Taliban on there own, they would likely have to operate in a way completely dissimilar to how the US has been fighting the Taliban.

This stems from the fact that the Afghans have to live the place where they are fighting. That precludes many of the techniques the US uses, and requires significant modification of the others. From overall strategy, such that it is, to the level of tactics on the ground.

I wonder what the US is teaching? Little from the American army's experience is likely worthwhile. Who is teaching it? US soldiers and contractors: people from organisations and countries viewed by their pupils, I imagine (using my dubious empathic skills), with suspicion, contempt, hatred: not much respect and admiration, to say the least.

[PS]

The irony is that it wasn't the Taliban who undermined this collapse in trust. According to NATO's accounting, only 1 in 10 of the green-on-blue attacks has been as a result of Taliban infiltrators: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/23/world/asia/afghanistan-blames-spies-for-insider-attacks-on-western-troops.html?ref=asia.

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

Your analysis and predictions are faultless.

The US misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan (and the earlier Soviet fiasco in the latter) have not only created hostility among Muslims but also provided fertile ground for the rise of fundamentalism and jihadis.

They have created future problems for the West, but they have also ruined any hope of the Muslim world pulling itself up out of the depths into which it fell in the last two or three centuries. For many Muslims, that is the real tragedy!

All that is left now to drive in the final nail is for the US (or Israel) to attack Iran.

[mbrenner]

"Does he realize what he was saying?" The same question could be asked about countless press conferences by civikian and military leaders over the past 11 years. I am reminded of that opening scene in a Sherlock Holmes tale where Watson, from his wingbacked chair, breaks the silence with " I'm inclined to think....." Holmes with uncharacteristic curtness interjects: "By all means do."

History is likely to register the umatched mindlessness of how we have addressed "terrorism +" since 9/11. More than a matter of disagreeing with premises, purposes and methods - one is struck by the incoherence and illogicality in all aspects at all times. Many more have contributed to this irresponsible behavior by the stilling of their own critical faculties.

One question: has there been any other military engagement in our history (or that of any other country) where senios military officers were expected and did freely comment on every facet of what was going on in the battle theater - including political, cultural, psychological elements? And to do so on a daily basis? How have career officers so readily adapt themselves to this role?

[trj]

We could move the AAF to Las Vegas and let them fly all the drones. Give the ANA some M1A's and have the Syrians train them. Or just hire Xe.

I remember telling war fans that Afghanistan would take $500B, 250K troops and twenty years. How ignorant I was.

[Al Spafford]

Would you please provide more information or refer to sites regarding the current situation in Jordan

[Max]

Pat, not sure you have seen this document: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB370/docs/Document%2011.pdf. An Army study, "A Crisis of Trust and Cultural Incompatibility." This may be the type of thinking that was influencing General Allen's statement. Not very fun reading, but we who know our soldiers can imagine there is truth to the analysis.

[trooper]

So, what are we predicting for Afghanistan in the near-term? At the risk of being unimaginative, I predict Pashtun areas dominated by Taliban/ISI and Kabul and the rest dominated by US/India/Russia/Iran (yes, strange bedfellows!) backed warlords. So, kind of like 2000 redux.

[YT]

All:

Maybe the "chums" at Versailles-on-the-Potomac thinks it's worth all that treasure & blood that them ragheads over there sent a female boxing team to the Olympics just recently, as if that's a clear sign of 'civilized progress'.

[turcopolier]

trooper

Yes except that IMO the US participation will be minimal fr political and financial reasons at home. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

Muslim polities were in trouble back in 1500s already.

I actually think that Muslim polities are now the most educated and the healthiest that have ever existed.

Where I sit, I see plenty of reasons to be hopeful.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Neither US nor India will be involved.

Iran and Pakistan have an understanding it seems.

Pakistan area of influence will be Pashtun South and South East, Iran's will be North and North West (Tadjik/Hazara/Turkoman), with a buffer zone in between (perhaps including Kabul).

The Russians will be a distant player.

[FB Ali]

I wish I could share your optimism!

[Fred]

"ragheads"? Why the racist derogation?

[Babak Makkinejad]

Not at all; you only need to look at various Muslim countries and areas in 1912 and comapre it with the present time.

By every concievable criterion there has been much progress; literacy, life expectancy, public health, governance, the Rule of Law, agriculture, industry, science, the arts etc.

No doubt on that.

[Michael Moore]

Col. Lang,

What about India? Don't they have an interest in containing Pakistan?

Best,
Michael

[Tyler]

B-b-b-but diversity!

[turcopolier]

Michael Moore

You don't read here much. I have always said that the main contest in Afghanistan is between India and Pakistan. That will continue to be the case. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

I just do not see it at a pratical level. In 1990s, India had a strategic understanding with Iran - all of that is in ruins now.

[turcopolier]

babak

The US is not India. pl

[PS]

Plugged the title into Google and found the paper. The key findings reflects everything said here about cultural incompatibility. The report's recommendations seem completely inadequate to address the deep-seated negative views of each other by the ANSF and US soldiers. Basically the authors have punted by recommending further research to develop recommendations to counter the prevailing perceptions that are leading to "fratricide-murder."

[shanks]

India needs both A'stan and Iran; one for keeping Pakistan occupied/worried and the other for oil. Now, how much that will be affected by the inevitable pullout is not clear. With the recent military acquisitions from USA, India has gone a bit cold to Iran. But nothing like a change in elections that can swing it back.

BTW,here's an anecdotal evidence of good/bad ideas depending on the idealogy/your faith/Imperial plans. The Shia-Sunni divisiveness funding is working very well in India. Most of my muslim colleagues whom I on and off talk to, seem to have hardened their dislike of Shias. One of them went so far as to say they're not really muslims in the 'true' sense(emphasis his). Even a greeting of 'Khuda hafiz' gets me 'Allah hafiz'. I started testing this after reading

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/allah-hafiz-instead-of-khuda-hafiz-thats-the-worrying-new-mantra/12036/0

If the goal is to isolate Iran, well, it's working. Depending on who you are and what your plans are, it's going to be interesting.

[Babak Makkinejad]

There is zero chance of cooperation at strategic level between Iran and India - on Afghanistan or any thing else.

The fact remains that Pakistan has gone out of her way to accomodate Iran, I do not expect Iran to somehow assume an anti-Pakistan posture.

The URL that you have supplied is a testament to what ails large sectors of Muslim populations world-wide; fear pervades them to the extend that they wish to put their minds on auto-pilot. That is, they wish not to think.

The war against "Khuda Hafiz" reminds me of similar things - Indonesian Muslims who refuse to reply to "Al Salam Aleikum" (Peace be on You" uttered by non-Muslims; claiming that is reserved for Muslims only.

Or Jewish teachers who refuse to teach Hebrew to non-Jews; it is for the use of Jews alone - they claim.

In India, in case of communal violence between Muslims and Hindus, I read that the ration of Sunni Muslims involved to Shia Muslims is 10,000 to one.

You are riding a tiger in India....