"Syrian Jihadism" Aron Lund

 

 

"The Syrian civil war is a sectarian conflict – among other things. It is also a conflict along socio-economic and urban-rural lines, a classic countryside jacquerie against an exploitative central government, albeit internally divided by the country’s religious divisions, which cut across other patterns of identity and loyalty. Then there is a political dimension to the struggle, with Bashar el-Assad’s loyalists battling to preserve the current power structure against demands for democratization and economic redistribution. And, last but not least, the conflict has transformed into a proxy war for influence among several regional and international powers, adding another layer of complexity. "  Aron Lund

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This is a thorough Order of Battle study on the present civil war in Syria.  pl 

http://www.ui.se/Files.aspx?f_id=77409

Comments

[Patrick D]

Fascinating read, Colonel.

I was struck by a few things:

I didn't realize the Sunni population was that large. Still, once you remove the Sunnis supporting the regime, Sunni opposition is what? 50% of the Syrian population tops?

The extent to which that segment is divided up among the report's less than exhaustive list is interesting.

I was also reminded of the small size of the populated parts of the country once you account for the huge areas of open desert... and by extension the tiny size of Lebanon. I believe one could easily drive around its border in less than a day if it wasn't for geopolitical obstacles. I recall a professor mentioning it was 1/10 the size of Ohio.

Such a tiny place with so many identities, languages, dialects, religious sects, and the U.S. wants to change the whole region... the delusion boggles the mind.

And this side story was bizarre.

http://www.sundayworld.com/columnists/index.php?aid=9335

Thanks for posting the report.

[YT]

RE: "Such a tiny place with so many identities, languages, dialects, religious sects, and the U.S. wants to change the whole region... the delusion boggles the mind."

Pat,

Well. there was this one POTUS by the 1st. name of Woodrow who thought it ideal that the Balkans would see the Light of Day 'if' they attained nationhood status & adopted the Democratic values of their more "liberal" neighbors to the north [or the good ol' U.S. of A]....

& look what that [eventually] led to [long after his demise]?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_War

http://www.europeanstrategist.eu/2012/03/trafficking-of-women-in-the-balkans-a-modern-day-slavery/

[Patrick D]

Yes. Fortunately for that set of people, Woodrow didn't have the means to act on his ideals and they got some respite from a guy named Tito instead. Not a democratically minded fellow but he didn't play favorites domestically or internationally and seemed focused on the interests of his country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josip_Broz_Tito

Of course, he also had the "street creds" of fighting/repelling invaders and maintaining a measure of independence much like Ataturk. That is something a leader on an American payroll or emerging under the protection of American occupation forces will never have.

However, I'm not as pessimistic about the human condition as I am about it improving as a result of American export of democratic revolution. By the measures frequently discussed here India shouldn't exist at all let alone be a functional democracy.

[Chris]

FYI, have you seen this report? I found it interesting, in that I had no idea of the country - to city migration (ala China) dynamic.

http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/climate-change-and-the-syrian-uprising

[Fred]

Quite a bit of information to digest in this. Page ten and eleven are quite informative. Just why are we supporting a Sunni salafi rebellion?

[YT]

RE: "a functional democracy."

Au contraire, monsieur.

I'm not of Indian stock (therefor not [exactly] fair for yours truly to comment on this).

But I've recently met a Welshman who taught English in both Pakistan & India - amongst other oil refineries with flags in the mena - & he claims (I'm confident he has very little reason to lie) that he's met [quite a no. of] nationals over there who hark back for the days of English colonial rule....

At the very least back then, there was more pronounced a semblance of Order, is what was told.

[Babak Makkinejad]

That is true but is also a form of "bravado" - like in Nigeria: "May be we should bring the White man back?"

Austro-Hungarian Empire was truly the best state that central Europeans ever had. Nothing since 1918 has succeeded or matched the Habsburg's achievement in teh Blakans or Central Europe to any degree.

[YT]

Je suis d'accord, monsieur.

The tragedies that arise when Empires wither/disintegrate.

I fear for the Day (if &) when the American Imperium collapses....