Another guerrilla triumph in Syria

"The explosion took place in Abu Rummaneh, a well-guarded upscale area in
central Damascus where the Ministry of Defense and other government buildings are located.

A truck bomb exploded in the same high-security zone on Aug. 15, injuring at
least three people. Four senior government officials also were killed in a bomb
blast in Damascus on July 18. "  Washpost

---------------------------------

(irony alert) These are some bad assed guerrillas.  They are getting their butts kicked all over the country.  Their sympathisers are being rooted out of sympathetic neighborhoods and then shot in the streets and still, they can infiltrate army headquarters in the capital and set off truck bombs.  I am impressed.

The "guerrillas" seem to have missed Assad again.  What a shame.  The timing would have been grand. I can see the scene on national TV with BHO on the stage at Charlotte to announce that once again a terrorist leader has been eliminated from the world, and this time by his own people.

I feel sure the jihadis will try again soon.  pl

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Sep-02/186423-syria-tv-terrorist-bombing-in-damascus-wounds-four.ashx#axzz25LJrtobw

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-bomb-regime-army-base-4-injured/2012/09/02/e48a86ec-f508-11e1-86a5-1f5431d87dfd_story.html

Comments

[Mark Kolmar]

This has been my difficulty in trying to digest news reports over the last months about Syria. I read about rebel forces, terrorists, senior government officials, terrorists leaders, guerrillas, jihadis, al Qaeda, Syrian military, bribed soldiers, and opposition groups. I will also assume intelligence services, and arms dealers for any tactical or cynical purpose. Three bombs explode, each time from which rebels, about what, against whom, to what intended effect? It would be a shock to find out it's all been a simple game of green vs. gold who exchange volleys.

[Farmer Don]

Col,
You have been right before about Iraq and Afghanistan regarding progress and outcomes in these wars.

Now you really are out there alone with regard to the fighting in Syria. All the main media I hear and see in Canada has the Fall of Assad as a sure thing.

Still reading your blog every day.
Thank you for taking the time to share your knowledge with the world.

[turcopolier]

farmer don

It is possible that the Syrian armed forces may collapse largely of their own weight, but this is Assad's war to loose. After our election Obama or Romney either one will increase aid to the rebels. Assad has three months in which to suppress the rebellion. After that Assad's situation will grow steadily worse. BTW, I like it best when I am alone. pl

[turcopolier]

farmer don

The MSM is lying directly and also lying by omission on the situation in Syria. IMO this is happening in reflection of the US and NATO policy of destroying the Syrian government in the belief that this will mortally wound the Iranian governmenr. This is yet another delusion. pl

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

I think you hinted in an earlier thread that the explosion that killed some top Assad officials in the defence ministry building (? July 18?) may well have been caused by a missile delivered aerially. Could these other blasts in well protected areas also be the same?

If so, whose missiles and delivery systems?

[WP]

Any update on Bandar bin Sultan?

[turcopolier]

fb ali

As you know, you will have to work that out for yourself. pl

[fatsamurai]

He was present in the Islamic summit in Saudi last months I believe

[Basilisk]

They say the smartest bomb is a truckbomb driven by someone with intimate knowledge of the target location. Could an air-delivered missile duplicate that capability? Perhaps, but Occam's razor tells me it is highly unlikely. Improbability would have to be piled upon improbability.

What these explosions do suggest is a serious OPSEC problem—one that could be fatal over the long term.

[Basilisk]

Fatsamurai,

Any source for that?

[turcopolier]

Basilisk

Occam's razor tells me the opposite. IMO your belief is based on what you think is the rationality of various governments. You remember Frank A? I won a splendid dinner from him over a similar issue concerning the likelihood that the US would decide to invade Iraq. pl

[David Habakkuk]

Basilisk,

See Saudi Gazette, 16 August. I doubt the photo is a fake, as the Saudis could have been called on it. But it hardly rules out the possibility that Bandar was injured in the attack, which still seems to me the most plausible interpretation of the available information.

(See http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20120816133317 )

There is useful discussion on the Fabius Maximus site.

(See http://fabiusmaximus.com/2012/08/01/41440/ )

[FB Ali]

Col Lang, Basilisk,

Col Lang suggested I work it out for myself.

So, I went back and reviewed the comments on the thread on the July 18 explosion that took out four top military and security generals inside the defence ministry. In that case, too, the FSA claimed that they had planted the bomb inside the facility. Col Lang would not rule out a missile strike, while Basilisk provided some specifics on the available weaponry.

Someone raised the issue of getting past Syrian air defences, and Col Lang rightly reminded them of the Israeli strike on the budding Syrian reactor facility. I understand drones can fly at high altitudes and release guided missiles.

I'm sure general OPSEC in the Syrian military is patchy, but it can't be so bad that someone can actually plant a large bomb in the defence ministry's top security conference room, or even in the general staff bulding.

As for pointing tentative fingers, it boils down to a question of capability. Not many options there.

[fatsamurai]

I remember seeing him on live tv during the summit but looking online I haven't found any pictures

[Basilisk]

DH,
Thanks for that terrific reference.

[JustPlainDave]

Not a compelling hypothesis. For the competing alternative of an aerially delivered weapon to be viable, Syrian forensics would have to be exquisitely awful. Sustainer motors, tailfins, electronics packages, casings, warhead frags, all of these things leave quite characteristic traces - particularly when used in a contained space.

[Cosmoskitten]

A spigot type mortar with a large warhead could perhaps do the trick?

[Basilisk]

JPD,
Thanks for that intervention. Tom Clancy solved the problem in a novel by creating a caseless bomb—essentially just a fabric bag of RDX dumped out of a SUU-type container.

It worked for the novel, but I doubt it would work in the real world. For the record, I wrote about capability of real weapons. I do not believe these explosions are the result of air-delivered weapons. I think they are the smarter kind of smart bomb—the ones delivered by a truck driver with intimate target knowledge, or a person with access to highly secured spaces.

[FB Ali]

JustPlainDave,

The Syrian govt would have a compelling interest in not announcing their conclusion that it was an air-delivered missile. It would be announcing to their troops and supporters that the US was militarily engaged in the conflict, and they could do nothing about it.

A truck bomb or a mortar would cause a lot of damage to the building. The first explosion caused damage only in the conference room where the high-level meeting took place. The second one seems to have occurred outside a building, but inside the general staff compound. If that was also an aerial missile, it could have missed its target or the Syrians may have discovered how to deflect such missiles.

These are two hypotheses that fit the known facts of what happened: an agent inside who could plant a large bomb in the target facility, or an aerial missile. Both have arguments against them. One can choose either.

[turcopolier]

Basilisk

Well, mon vieux lapin, you are the air weapons guy, not me. However, having spent a lot of time in Damascus under happier skies and driven around these security drenched streets I have a tough time believing that these "gorillas" who can't aim a rifle (TV evidence) and who run out in the street to fire an RPG way up the street (without aiming), all to the music of AA can orchestrate the navigation of the streets of the Syrian capital repeatedly to drive vehicles laden with AN, plastique or any of the other goodies up to high security facilities. I have a hard time with that. Now, if the argument is that "security" is so penetrated that one can repeatedly do this, then the government should be gone by now and it is not. pl