Supposed Israeli campaign plan for Iran

"... an Israeli strike on Iran will include a "barrage of tens of ballistic missiles" launched from Israeli territory towards Iran, as well as a barrage of "hundreds of cruise missiles" which will "pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. "Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields," according to the blogger. Silverstein says the attack will open with an unprecedented cyber-attack which will take the internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan - out of action. "The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal," the blogger claims. According to the document, the missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility. Following the first wave of attacks, Silverstein says, an Israeli radar satellite will pass over Iran and transfer information directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. "  YNET

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This strikes me as an enormous conceit, the fevered imaginings of a military power that has never attempted anything of this magniitude.  I judge such an operation to be beyond Israel's capacity.  They have no idea where all the Iranian nuclear facilities are located.   Do they imagine that the desired degree of damage will be accomplished in one set of attacks?  In the spirit of the YNET's comment on General Dempsey's Irish ancestry, I might observe that this level of grandiosity may be endemic in Israeli thinking.  pl

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4269110,00.html

Comments

[b]

Silverstein has again be had by his "impeccable source" from Israel. That top secret plan that was leaked to him was a "best case" writeup for a discussion for the Israeli amateur military forum Fresh. It was published there days before it was fed to Silverstein as a "Netanyahoo plan".
The various links to the story here:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2012/08/richard-silverstein-has-been-had-again.html

Pushing this to Silverstein and from there back into the Israeli media is a well proven way of getting stuff like this published.

[Andy]

This "leaked document" is quite obviously a fake, and an amateurish one at that.

[E L]

Colonel:
If Israel is bluffing about pulling the trigger, just remember the late British politician Enoch Powell once said: “History is littered with wars which everyone knew would never happen.”

[Matthew]

Col: Well, the Israelis are just riding high from their record haul of Olympic Medals in London. What was the number? Er....Zero. Ouch.

The People Who Chose Themselves hope no one noticed.

[The beaver]

To which country will they show allegiance?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/world/middleeast/lone-soldiers-arrive-in-israel-to-serve-in-its-military.html

Israel has enlisted 8,217 men and women from other countries since 2009, 1,661 of them from the United States, second only to Russia’s 1,685.

[Israel attack on Iran]

I did a couple posts on this subject myself:

http://www.war-in-middle-east.blogspot.com/2012/07/map-of-israels-iran-war-scenarios-in.html

http://www.war-in-middle-east.blogspot.com/2012/04/map-of-israeli-first-strile-attack-on.html

http://www.war-in-middle-east.blogspot.com/2012/08/israeli-defense-minister-ehud-barak.html -- NOTE: This post includes a MUST READ link to an article in Haaretz that has a long interview with Ehud Barak

[CK]

Once upon a time there was an Scottish/or maybe Irish gent named MacGuffin, he was oft employed by a perfidious Albionese named Hitchcock. He is currently employed in the middle east, Las Vegas, NYC, Washington DC and other interesting places around the world --- simultaneously.
http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2012/08/israel-and-iran-nuclear-weapons.html
What is good for the citizens of the USA?

[Idaho]

Israel achieved the technological dominance that has carried it for the past 15 years or so, on the strength of Russian immigrants -- many of whom were not Jewish, I might add. They are getting old, and not that happy with life in Israel. Israel needs a new infusion of intellectual capital.

It will not come from internal sources. Israel's education system is a mess. Elementary schools are nearing a majority of Orthodox; they do not engage in a rigorous secular curriculum, they're very badly behaved & obnoxious.

Israel's own universities are heavily constrained by political correctness Israel style, and since the path to the upper echelon in Israeli society is through the military, there is a strong militaristic bent to university life.

I think Netanyahu is casting about for another group of Jews to convince to aliyeh to Israel, preferably American-educated Jews. How better to accomplish this than by totally pissing off the American public.

Combine this with what I believe is Israel's perception that the US is on the decline; from Israel's point of view, it's gotten its use out of US, time to move on. My belief is bolstered by the documents of Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, of which Dennis Ross was charter member & chair in 2004 when Solomon Wald wrote the Institute's first paper, China and the Jewish People http://books.google.com/books/about/China_and_the_Jewish_People.html?id=a9U7skbZ-moC
The premise of the paper is that US days as an economic superpower are waning, China is on the ascent, Israel should form a relationship with China.

While Israel bellyaches about US throwing Israel under the bus, it is preparing to throw US under the bus.

Best we can hope for is that Israel does not make an Egyptian exit.

[Charles I]

They better get with it. I just watched Mitt on PBS Newshour, as he evaded questions about his taxes, declare, as reasons for looking away, inter alia, "Iran is going nuclear. . ."

[Anonymous]

I've read similar stuff on a supposed 'professional' site from what I suspect to be Israeli agent provocateurs and disinformation actors. My 30 years of ballistic and cruise missile analysis experience tells me it's all BS. Israel does not have the capability to conduct such a missile campaign and we know it. This is all bluster and chest thumping, and rather amateurish at that.

[LeaNder]

thanks interesting, especially the Barak interview, and I trust you he may well be the "decision maker".

There are too many things that I would want to question, e.g. the remilitarization of the Rhineland's in 1936,which it feels shouldn't leave out the French occupation. I don't think there would have been a Hitler without WWI and its aftermath. But he does not seem to want to waste much time on such reflections.

“Iran has waited 4,000 years for a nuclear bomb,” replies the decision maker. “It has spent the last 20 years creating its nuclear program. In the past four years, this program has made significant progress.

Hmmm? Definitively crazy, it feels.

Besides if there is an international consent regarding Iran, I wonder how he defines international consent. And what exactly does he think about the very real international consent concerning "Judea and Samaria"?

[LeaNder]

Pat, I wonder does Israel's super secret weapon, not even the US knows about rings true or believable to you?

Reminds me of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity%27s_Rainbow

In a way it too reminds me of earlier statements about Israel's superior intelligence versus the US, which never felt very realistic considering US versus Israeli budgets.

[Marcus]

Meanwhile the Iranians just sit back and take this attack and abuse? And no interruption of world oil supplies? Yeah that's what would really endear the Israelis further with the US.

Computer mischief and simulations are the only attacks the Israelis better try on their on against Iran.

Maybe they think the Iranians are as "dumb" as the Irish. Technology and smarts are not the only factors in warfare.
Look at the Iran/Iraq war. Who had the superior technology? Who won?

[oofda]

The Silverstein article also describes a purported new Israeli Air Force EW capability that will make their planes 'invisible'- according to him, they haven't even disclosed it to the US. This sounds like more of a pipe dream and is totally implausible.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I do not think so; more than 20% of Israel's Jewish citizens live and work abroad - according to her own statistics.

One could only hope that Israel will ditch the United States; just like when an uncaring manipulative woman dumps the man who is recklessly and hopelessly in love with her.

[fatsamurai]

All,

Sayed Nasrallah from the Al-Quds day speech :

Bibi says that the expected casualties are approx 500 I tell the Israelis the casualties will be in the tens of thousands.

The Israelis need to know that our rockets that can cover all of Israel are pointed at high value targets and we will not hesitate to target them uif the Lebanese civilians are targeted

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

Israel will not attack Iran; they want US to do so.

They will not enter into an explicit religious war that will continue for centuries.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Iran lost the Iran-Iraq War since she could not reach her war aim of the destruction of the Ba'athist State in Iraq.

US finished that job and realized Iran's aim in that war.

But your wider point is still valid; in my opinion.

[Anonymous]

The israelis will attack Iran.

[turcopolier]

anonymous

You have to give me a real e-mail address. i don't want your name but I need an address. pl

[The beaver]

Today on the French News - France 2, the reporter from Jerusalem was saying that Bibi has told his cabinet that the strike will last for 30 days and he expects ~ 500 casualties amongst the Israeli civilians.

Only 50% of the population have those masks and even TVL can't assure its population that those underground garages to be used as shelter will be able to accommodate them.

Note: All we have to watch is the number of dual citizens flying back to the US - this will be a sign that Bibi is going to attack

[LeaNder]

"I think Netanyahu is casting about for another group of Jews to convince to aliyeh to Israel, preferably American-educated Jews. How better to accomplish this than by totally pissing off the American public."

It may be too late to fish for educated Americans, educated Americans Know too Much.

http://www.orbooks.com/catalog/knowing-too-much/

writes one of my Jewish-American spiritual friends,in complete confirmation with my anecdotal knowledge as other such friends are concerned.

Ironically Finkelstein is attacked as a Zionist tool on the US left lately on the issue, since he argues, perfectly reasonably, from my liberal-left perspective, that the only thing achievable is pressure for a Palestinian state. Which makes him a closet Zionist in their eyes, since he does not consider the possibility of one state. Never mind that he tells them, it's not about what he wants, it's about what is achievable.

But I also find myself again not agreeing with our dear "b" above that Richard Silverstein, is simply a tool of Israeli intelligence circles.

Or does he believe Ross is a tool too or maybe could be judged to be an insider?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/17/opinion/how-america-can-slow-israels-march-to-war-with-iran.html?_r=1&hp&pagewanted=all

How many years are we following this topic by now? And at what point Israel is forced to walk the talk?

[elkern]

This is war porn.

[stanleyhenning]

I think it is clearly time for Israel to change leadership. If Bibi really is crazy enough to think he must pre-empt the Iranian nuclear effort then he is clearly a hopeless mental case. Even any preemption would likely result not only in a massive Iranian effort to reenergize their efforts, it is quite possible Israel would become a perpetual target for all the members of the Islamic Spring. They would have brought it upon themselves and I don't think we would be able to stop it, nor should we even try as reflected in our Iraq and Afghanistan adventures.

[LeaNder]

"If Bibi really is crazy enough to think he must preempt the Iranian nuclear effort then he is clearly a hopeless mental case."

What if he is a mental case or pushed by his right wing partners? Strictly the larger election scenario rings a bell, remember the timing of Cast Lead? I am deeply puzzled by the way, that liberal US people on the web I respect, seriously consider not voting at all. Not that I cannot understand them, but Obama from my perspective is still the lesser evil.

Tritan Parsi: But what if Netanyahu isn’t bluffing this time around?

http://tiny.cc/v9lajw