The US reaps what it has sown in the ME

That's me in a blog writing posture.

The Islamist cause prospers in Egypt, not so much in Syria.  

In Egypt Air Marshal Shafik, Mursi's principal opponent in the late election is placed on a "watch list" at the ports of departure from Ehypt.  This is obviously a prelude to prosecution.  A suitable charge will be found.  Shafik nearly won.  That can't happen again according to the Islamist playbook.  "One man, one vote, one time" is their formula.  The Islamist dominated parliament and constitution drafting committee will put religious freedom to a vote as well as provisions to allow the parliament and president to imprison minister who displease them.  "Progress" is being made in Egypt and the US applauds it.

In Syria even the Washington Post admits that the Islamist rebels are losing. Wherever they try to hold ground, they lose.  They shoud read something like "People's War, People's Army" by Giap.  Nevertheless, Syrian government forces are still described in the Post as "pro-regime" forces  In Turkey the MB related Erdogan pushes for an attack on the Syrian Air Force.  What is left of the Turkish General Staff resists this.  

All in all, this is a mixed "bag" for the neo-Wilsonians in the Obama Administration. What will he do to "up the ante" if he is re-elected?  What will the neocon tool Romney do if he wins?

"Is a puzzlement."  pl

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/bomb-injures-several-during-damascus-funeral-for-other-blast-victims/2012/08/28/aeba88aa-f116-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_story.html

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/51550/Egypt/Politics-/President-Morsi-attempts-foreign-policy-balancing-.aspx

Comments

[Bill H]

""Proress" is being made in Egypt and the US applauds it."

Damn, Colonel, not when I'm drinking coffee, please. I can't afford to keep buying new keyboards.

[r whitman]

Is Ahram still the semi-official mouthpiece of the Egyptian government like they were during Mubaraks time??

[Jose]

What will the neocon tool Romney do if he wins?

Same things as the neo-Wilsonian tool Obama, but at least he will create jobs and reduce debt.

Sir, what is your opinion on Bibi changing his investments? Big bluff or ready to strike?

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/159370#.UD5zxyLcF7c

[Eliot]

Col. Lang,

I'm trying to imagine a worst case scenario. What are the repercussions for the US if the government in Egypt turns the clock back to the 12th century? What happens if the Baath party falls from power in Damascus? Is the blowback simply regional? Does the ensuing conflict imperil any of our core interests?

[Alba Etie]

Col Lang
Why is Erdogan siding with the MB - how are Morsi & Erdogan interests linked ?

[turcopolier]

AE

They are from the same tradition. pl

[jmc5588]

'Tis to be hoped that there are people in positions of power who are addressing these eminently sensible questions. Better yet, that they are asking what our core interests in the ME might be. Energy appears to be of decreasing importance, given the rapid expansion of domestic production. What would be the consequence to the US of a Persia armed with nuclear weapons? Here I am considering "core" national interests, as opposed to domestic political interests (thinking back to those magnificent documents of 226 and 215 years ago).

[fatsamurai]

A few days ago Majed Almajed, the Al-Qaeda emir in Lebanon released a tape calling on shia to abandon Hezbollah and Amal, or "face the consequences of your actions as a sect"

Iraq like bombings coming to Lebanon?

[turcopolier]

ADMartin

You need to develop an ability to read posts before you comment. Once again I was quoting Al-Ahram. pl

[jonst]

based alone on his PR sense....I was impressed by Mursi's public confrontation with Syria. In Iran, no less. If nothing else....different.

[Walrus]

Worst case scenario is a nuclear blast that Levels an American city, followed by a demand for America to get the **** out of the Middle East or another city will be vapourized.

[Kunuri]

Albayim, that's about the extent of it "They are from the same tradition". That does not mean that situation is the same in Turkey as in Egypt. Turkey still has a vociferous opposition, still strong diehart Ataturk followers, many, many NGOs, intellectuals, artists, thinkers and yes, the military... Lost many a General to persecution, but there are others to take their place and make sure Ataturk's Turkiye is not lost to Islamists or extremists. Religo-proleterian revolution in Turkey has had its fill, and in my opinion has not found it fullfilling. AKP government has no way to go but down-unless they move intentionally away from the bearded pajama crowd.
So in short, AKP and Erdogan maybe fans of MB, but in the flawed democratic environment of Turkey, they can be, and are checked and balanced sufficiently enough not to be alarmed.

[Kunuri]

Albayim,

"In Turkey the MB related Erdogan pushes for an attack on the Syrian Air Force. What is left of the Turkish General Staff resists this."

I follow the Turkish press very, very closely. There is nothing on this subject. It seems now, that Turkish public is confused and divided on the Syria issue, especially with what is going on in the refugee camps, a unilateral military move would be very unpopular. The time for that is way past. AKP just does not have the moral courage for a military intervention, being the political realists they are, at least within Turkey. So they talk big, but no stick to wield around and that has a cost. Turkish General staff are still Kemalists, they will remember Ataturk's saying that " War is sheer murder unless the existence of the nation is threatened".

And about what is left of the Turkish General Staff, the bench there is pretty deep. If one, ten or hundred Generals are rendered incapable, new ones will take their place. Turkish Staff colleges are one of the best in the world. A few years back, I remember seeing on TV that an American Army Major graduated along with as many as a dozen junior officers from other countries.

And for sure, Turkish Army will not attampt an attack on Syrian Air Force without NATO help, participation and commitement.

[Babak Makkinejad]

One should be very grateful indeed that the "AKP just does not have the moral courage a military intervention" against Syria.

That would indeed be an immoral action, going to war against a country that poses no military threat to Turkey, is not seeking a war with Turkey, and is trying to avoid a war with Turkey.

[Kunuri]

Point noted, I hear you. But there is much more to it, Syria is not in a vacuum, neither is Turkey. There are numerous forces that are pulling either country in directions which they may not desire to go. All that is clear so far is that Syria situation is not going to just fizzle out. Just for an example, as you state, Syria poses no threat to Turkey, but the situation in Syria, to the extent that is out of control of the regime in Damascus, does-as in refugees, foreign jihadis, Iranian meddling, and a raging brutal civil war with 200 people dying everyday. So, a threat does not have to manifest itself in concrete terms, or even in terms of intention, but it may still be there, as would be in the case of a pasific looking mad man.

[Kunuri]

"In Syria even the Washington Post admits that the Islamist rebels are losing. Wherever they try to hold ground, they lose"

Albayim, just for counter point, here is a detailed report on rebels, tactics and the latest situation. If to be believed, and extensive sourcing and wealth of detail seems to point to a credible analysis-WP maybe premature in its conclusion.

http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Backgrounder_RebelGroupsNorthernAleppo.pdf

[Babak Makkinejad]

The Syrian state, in its current configuration, is not a threat to Turkish Republic.

Iranians are not meddling in Syria; they are supporting their allie to the hilt - as to be expected.

Is not the Turkish Republic facilitating the entrance of jihadists into Syria?

Is not the Turkish Republic aiding an essentially religious war in her neighbor?

And is Syria the "pacific mad man" or the leaders of an onstensibly secular republic promoting religious civil war in a neighbour?