WINEP on the Syrian rebels

"we met with a Syrian sheikh who runs the Jamiyat al-Shura al-Khairiyah on the Jordanian side of the border, which is supposedly a humanitarian organization. He gave us an extremely long, eloquent, and detailed presentation about the good work he is doing and said that we are all equal and we all believe in the compassionate and merciful prophets. He then asked us to support his good work for the Syrian people. Then after that meeting, he took aside a Palestinian Muslim member of our delegation, and said, "You know, when you talk to these Europeans, you have to be like a fox. You have to say all these nice things, but you know that we don't really mean any of it."

I was struck by the pervasiveness of this uncertainty and duplicity. Personally, I support the Syrian opposition, but I think we need to be very clear about the pitfalls when we try to pick and choose. So that is my first conclusion: Don't jump to conclusions. Even about whom you think you are dealing with."  WINEP

-------------------------------------------

This WINEP document makes it very clear that the US and the European powers are playing a dunce's game in Syria.  They are seeking to replace a dictatorial but multi-sectarian modernist regime with one that at the very least would be unknown in nature.  At worst we might see Syria transformed into yet another religion ridden theocracy.  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/trip-report-meeting-the-syrian-opposition-in-antakya-and-istanbul

Comments

[Jose]

Sir, why are our intelligence agencies always so clueless when events like this occur? Shouldn't we have a warning or two?

[turcopolier]

jose

They are poorly educated and are selected that way and bureaucratic group think corrupts all, but, i am long an exile. what do I know/. pl

[Robert]

Are you suggesting that we should support the murderous dictator over the population as it is Islamic and thus duplicitous?
Just shocking that an indigenous population may not share western interest but seeks western allies.
I do not understand the rational that the USA should side with a hated tyrant, a regime we have opposed for decades, because it somehow brings us relative predictability.
How exactly are we endangered by Assad's overthrow? So Syria becomes a theocracy. Who gives a damn if that is what the population chooses.
Is it really our game to play? The dunce is he who thinks that maintaining the status quo is an advantage in a lost game.

[turcopolier]

Robert

Yet asnother naive, unworldly fool. pl

[Kunuri]

"we experienced people privately telling some of us one thing and others something completely different, and talking about each other in quite derogatory ways behind each other's backs, while trying to take over meetings from each other."

From the report.

Shocking, in the Middle East?

[Babak Makkinejad]

Man, you better calm down and take a deep breath.

Look at the bright side:

The Jihadists are converging on Syria, evidently funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

That is fine for those 2 states; Syrians will get rid of the Jihadists and thus relieve the Arabian penninsula as well as Egypt from a number of undesirable elements.

It also leaves fewer people to wage war in Iraq against the Shia government there.

It also helps the United States; more enemies of the United States are thus killed on a fool's errand in Damascus and Allepo.

And the Iranian will be even more entrenched in Syria.

The big looser, in my opinion, is Turkey; her very constructive and progressive foreign policy of "Zero Problems with Neighbours" is now destroyed; all for less than $ 10 billion from the Persian Gulf Arabs.

[Kunuri]

"Give us anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. We don't even need your air cover or corridors. Give us the weapons and we will do it ourselves."

Yes, this was obvious for a month or so. After Assad is gone, none of these meetings in Istanbul, conferences, sanctions and fine speeches for support of Syrian people will be remembered. All that will be remembered by the Syrian people will be, the West did not care for us enough to really help, with a few exceptions-and are responsible for an additional 40,000 unneccessary deaths and ruined cities. The Russians and following, the Chinese will regret it the most.

[Walrus]

For a start both the Assad regimes stuck assiduously to their treaty with Israel. A religious theocratic Syrian Government might decide not to, and be a d*mn sight less democratic to their citizens as well.

At the risk of incurring the Colonels ire, who the heck are you to talk about a "murderous" anybody? How many innocent civilians has America killed in Iraq and Afghanistan? Isn't that "murderous"? Look at the drone strikes in Pakistan as well.

And who the f*** are you to ask why america should support a "Hated Tyrant?" you have done it for years and still do - Look no further than the Saudi Arabian Royal Family and the Rulers of Bahrien. Then of course there was the Shah of Iran and a long string of South American "hated tyrants".

We try our best not to engage in your brand of melodramatic emotional hypocrisy here because it is unhelpful. It may be necessary that the deaths of innocents goes unavenged in the pursuit of American interests. "Collateral damage" may have to be tolerated. Please ditch the entire "good vs. evil" crap. It is entirely unhelpful and false.

To put that another way, if you let your emotions rule your head when it comes to foreign policy, you are heading for a world of hurt.

[Eliot]

Why should we care to help?

[Steve]

You seem to be arguing for a "hands off" approach by the West to Syria.

You figure out the contradiction between that and your support for the overthrow of Assad.