Will Israel invade Syria?

"... over the weekend, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in a television interview,
"I've ordered the Israeli military to prepare for a situation where we would
have to weigh the possibility of carrying out an attack" against Syrian weapons
arsenals.

On Sunday, Barak said Israel will not allow Syria's chemical weapons
to fall into the hands of radical Islamist groups such as Hezbollah. "Israel
will not be able to accept the transfer of smart weapons" to the Iranian-backed
radical Shiite movement in Lebanon, he told reporters at an army base near Tel
Aviv.

Asked about an earlier remark, in which he said the Israeli army had
been ordered to prepare for a scenario of an operation on Syrian soil to secure
the weapons, he said: "It wouldn't be right to say here when we will act, if we
will act, how we will act." Israel would defend itself "with responsibility", he
added."  Ha'aretz

----------------------------------------------------

If the Israelis are fearful of the ultimate possessors of Syrian stocks of chemical shells and bombs, let them "go for it."  Many of the storage sites are deep in Syria and heavily defended.  Israel has not taken a "pasting" since 2006, this would be a good opportunity to see how well they would do.  pl

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-fears-syria-s-chemical-weapons-could-be-seized-by-hezbollah-or-al-qaida-1.452722

Comments

[The Twisted Genius]

An Israeli invasion will also unify the Syrian people. I seriously doubt the Israelis will be greeted with roses and kisses, although I doubt the Israelis are under any illusion that they would be.

[Grimgrin]

Assuming that the fear chemical weapons will be transferred to terrorist groups is an accurate reflection of Israeli thinking and not a PR line for something they want to do for different reasons, doesn't this imply that the Israelis think that the Assad regime's days are numbered?

Another possibility, is Israel planning on intervening to support Assad? The statements Israeli officials during the Arab spring suggested that they were worried about the possible outcome of the process, Mursi's win in Egypt and the likely composition of the Syrian government should the rebels win can hardly have them feeling more sanguine.

[fatsamurai]

Colonel,

Do you belive that hezbollah will attack Israel if such an operation happens?

[turcopolier]

fatsamurai

Since such a strike would directly threan their supply corridor through Syria, IMO HZB would probably attack Israel. At the same time a sunni jihadi takeover would also threaten their supply line. pl

[turcopolier]

Grimgrin

Bibi was on one the the newsies today and said he expects the Assad government to fall and that Israel is being progressively surrounded by enemy governments. pl

[Robert C]

"Bibi was on one the the newsies today and said he expects the Assad government to fall and that Israel is being progressively surrounded by enemy governments. "

Would this not be a classic example of blowback?

Robert C

[turcopolier]

Robert C

IMO he has little influence over the neo-wilsonians in the BHO Administration. pl

[Tyler]

I always thought that Saudi Arabia and Israel were working together to destabilize the region, myself.

[Tigershark]

Col.

Bibi playing politics due to the fall of his coalition government?

[turcopolier]

tyler

The Israelis and the neocons are short sighted. they are obsessed with their own supposed superiority and this blinds them to the truth. The Saudis are not so blinded. pl

[fatsamurai]

Colonel,

Could this lead to the U.S army being involved, and would it have a domino effect on the involvement of NATO, Russia, China and Iran?

[turcopolier]

fatsamurai.

We could easily become involved in an adventure like this if the JCS does not continue resisting the idea. pl

[mo]

Colonel,
I would think the known knowns and the known unknowns would make such an adventure ridiculously reckless.

Tyler,
Destabilizing the region for the Saudis would be counter-productive as there is nothing stopping that kind of destablisation spreading to their allies and to themselves and they would only have to finance fixing it. For Saudi Arabia the only issue at hand is removing Iranian influence from the ME.

[SAC Brat]

I think I will be voting for General Dempsey more than anything else this fall. I'd like to see him stick around.He could be a good spokesman that a strong, non-corrupt economy is a strategic asset after all these years of pro-military media messaging. Leverage the "Thank you for your service" guilt, judo throw the chickenhawks.

[turcopolier]

SAC Brat

I hear that the neo-Wilsonians are agitating to replace him with McRaven. pl

[Kunuri]

Israel will not invade Syria to prevent WMDs falling into the hands of the radicals. They may, however try their hand from the air, with US, Turkey, Jordan and even Russia.

If they actually try a land invasion, it will be to guarantee that Golan Heights are no longer "A Bulge" on their maps looking down on Israel and on their way back from their invasion to Israel, to forget to withdraw from the water sources abundant on vicinity of Syrian border area.

Contrary to common belief, I don't think Hizbullah wants to be in possession of a hot potato, like WMD.

Israilis are well aware of the dangers for interfering, so I think the more threats they put out, the less likely they will attack. Eventually somebody in Syria will sell all those chemical weapons and delivery systems to the highest bidder sans ideology. Not just for money, either.
All that has to happen is that the line connecting the General in charge of the WMD arsenals to Assad to be cut and a bargain to be struck. Then it is the "Damacus Job", maybe Green Berets and Spetnaz working together, stranger things have happened...

But to be serious, WMD can not be destroyed from the air, a land invasion may actually trigger their use, therefore making things even worse, and Syrians will not hand them out to the real bad guys.

[toto]

and Syrians will not hand them out to the real bad guys.

Unless the eventual winners in Syria turn out to be the Real Bad Guys.

[turcopolier]

kunuri

Bombing a chemical weapons depot is not a good idea. The blast will just throw the material around. It will weather and go inert eventually but is dangerous in the intevening time. An air landed operation woud have to be quite large in order to have a reasonable chance. pl

[Kunuri]

Albayim, neither a land invasion or bombing from air is a good idea and even feasable even at large risk I tried to say both in my comment.

But given some cooperation from the Syrian Army elements, Russians who know where they are, and Israilies who perhaps know more than anyone else, confusion on the ground, and an effective air cover/umbrella, as a last resort, why not an air landed operation to secure all that can be secured?

I am quite sure Israilies can blind the Syrian radars, especially if the Russians cooperate, US can keep Syrian planes neutrilized and the Lebanese, Turks and Jordanians help out...

[Will22]

Regional War seems inevitable before the end of this summer from where I am standing...All signs point in that direction and Israel will be unleashed again soon, without UNSC cover.
I predict that Israel will take a pretty bad beating again.

[Babak Makkinejad]

In my opinion, given the strategic relationship between Iran and Syria, any attack on Syria will very likely result in the active and overt participation of the Iranians on behalf of Syria.

I should think that this point has been communicated by the Iranian leaders to leaders of US, Turkey, EU and other interested parties.

This is to avoid any possibility of miscalculation.

[Jackie]

This might make 2006 look like a cake walk for Israel. Will wait and see.

[Kunuri]

I have been posting my opinions on this site to the best of my ability following of all news from various media about Syria. I have come across this article which surprised even me, that my not so expert deductions were also reached by people who are professional journalists. Kind of took away some of my insecurity to sound as too far fetched and uninformed in my comments. Thank you all for listening.

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3189/the-call-for-july-22-2012-russian-ambitions-in

And Albayim, Asia Times is really good, thanks.

[Kunuri]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/world/middleeast/commanders-of-syrian-rebels-unite-in-frustration.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

This article is from June 13, C.J Chivers. Erdogan today made a call to the Syrian opposition. "Come on, get your act together and put your differences apart and become unified. I put my neck out for you, you showed that you have the will and means, finish the job." My paraphrasing of course, but I expect a much more unified and coordinated military effort from the rebels in the next week to 10 days. Fall of Aleppo, and subsequent defeat of a counterattack by Assad will be the test.

[Fred]

Any such action in Syria would rather tie up thier air force and eliminate any of the talk around bombing Iran's nuclear sites, wouldn't it? (Not that they have real capability to do so without US help.)