Ignatius on the "Arab Spring"

"Most officials think that relations with the Arabs are gradually going to get
worse, perhaps for decades, before democracy really takes root and the Arab
public, perhaps, will be ready to accept the Jewish state. The challenge for
Israel is how to avoid inflaming Arab public opinion, a newly important factor,
while protecting the country. "  Ignatius

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Ignatius' Israeli friends are right to be fearful of revolutions that seem to unleash Islamist forces that have as their "raison d'etre" the elimination of Israel as an insult to Islam and the 'Umma.  The game has not been played out in Libya but Libya is a special case in terms of smallness of population and percentage of people educated abroad.

Al-Ahram has a story on-line that government receipts will be much smaller this year than they were under Mubarak "the terrible."  Let's see, how does that relate to all the billions that the Mubaraks stole from Egypt?  Hmmm!  That's the way to cover the government deficit!  They could torture the Mubaraks to find the people's money.

The Israelis prefer Bashar Assad?  How can that be?  Perhaps HC can fly by Tel Aviv to explain why they are wrong. 

Now Mursi has reinstated the Islamist parliament.  There must be great satisfaction in Foggy Bottom about how well things are going in Cairo. pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-israels-arab-spring-problem/2012/07/05/gJQAV5JrRW_story.html

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/47075/Business/Economy/Egyptian-state-revenues-are-overestimated,-a-blast.aspx

 

Comments

[JohnH]

"The challenge for Israel is how to avoid inflaming Arab public opinion."

Not going to happen. It's part of fundamentalist Jewish religion, going all the way back to King David, who made the Amalekites vanish from the face of the earth, something that Netanyahu is fond of citing to rally rabid Zionists.

As for Arabs outside the Gulf, Israel is a rallying cry, but the real issue is an increasingly severe shortage food, water, and employment compounded by a population explosion and disappearance of traditional industries due to globalization.

Tourism is typically offered as a panacea, but recent events have exposed it as a mirage, fickle as Western whims and spending preferences.

[Alba Etie]

How long before the Islamist Parliament revokes the Peace Treaty with Israel ? And can the Generals take back the government ?

[turcopolier]

AE

Yes, the generals could take back the government but not if they wait very long. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

My understanding has been that there is no archeological evidence for the existence of the Kingdom Of David and, later, Solomon's.

So these are most likely just-so stories; like the Book of Esther and Daniel; a form of romance such a Parsifal and the Fisher King pf Medieval Europe.

[r whitman]

Regarding the revocation of the peace treaty, I cannot imagine that the Egyptian military would want to fight another war with Israel. There is nothing in it for them. For Mursi and the Brotherhood revocation would be a symbolic gesture without military backing.

[turcopolier]

r. whitman

Revocation would not necessarily mean a resumption of hostilities for a while. pl

[Alba Etie]

But a revocation of the peace treaty could give the Likudniks here & in Tel Aviv a political cudgel to with which to beat their collective drum of War ..

[turcopolier]

AE

IMO the Israelis will not voluntarily go to war with Egypt. All the variety of costs are too high. pl

[r whitman]

It is hard to imagine that the IDF and the Egyptian military want to fight eachother. There is just no compelling reason for them to want to do it when they both have other more pressing problems. The Egyptian military with the MB and internal unrest, the IDF with their northern border and Iran.

Both of the militaries have a dominant position domestically and can strongly influence the direction of foreign and war policy by their respective civilian govts.

[turcopolier]

r. whitman

I question the "dominance" of the IDF in Israel and THE question in Egypt is whether or not the military will continue to be "dominant." pl