Aleppo. Assault or no assault?

"Anti-regime guerillas have battled to stave off an onslaught by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Sunday as the government claimed it had defeated a rebel assault in Damascus. Despite days of heavy skirmishes in the south-west of Syria's second city, a decisive battle is yet to begin.

The rebels are in control of a crescent-shaped area, from the east to the south and centred on the suburb of Salahedine. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) has set up a network of checkpoints in the neighbourhoods it controls, run by young militia fighters, many of them extremely nervy. It remains encamped in much of the hinterland to the north of the city, which it entered on 20 July, and troops are using anti-regime villages in these areas to move reinforcements into Aleppo." Guardian”  

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Two days old but still interesting, a decision point for the Syrian government is whether or not they should assault and clear the city quickly or "sweat" the opposition forces out over some time in the hope of not destroying the economic value of the city.  The Sunni business community there as well as the Christian minority are all assets that Assad will not want to ruin.

IMO he will decide on a fairly long siege.  pl

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/29/syria-unrest-assad-forces-aleppo

Comments

[Thomas]

If it was a Strategic asset turned Tactical assassin, then they may be still trying to run the guy down before he makes it home with his fully loaded zip drive.

And the bigger importance is the message sent that the East side is not going to keep taking hits without retaliation in this Shadow war. As volatile as the region is this summer, the worse case scenario could be here shortly.

[turcopolier]

Thomas

i like that about the strategic asset turned tactical asset. very good. pl

[Thomas]

Sir,

It appears someone was high up in the Ministry and to have him do this would burn a valuable agent that was probably giving you excellent information, so I see it as very signficant and related to the Syria Civil War.

First, they had to feel threatened enough to make this hasty decision. Thus the previous point about an equalizing goal where if you are scored against strike back quickly to prevent a momentum shift.

Second, their current rhetoric about "resistance" and "economic war" is not pom-pom propaganda but actual strategic thought.

Third, has the West side ever really taken solid punch? The only two incidents I could think of was the 79 Grand Mosque take over and Faisal's fate but those I would call domestic incidents. That also leaves the question has their confidence been shaken? Especially since they won't answer about Bandar, though the Saudi Gazette story may have been an answer to their friends("he is with us in body and spirit, you will see in the photograph") while they keep it quiet for now.

Fourth, if I was in the Chair with the Buck Stops Here plaque, I would take a fresh look at the issue to see if the East side believes it is boxed in and is approaching the point that the only option is war. If so, now is the time to give them an honorable diplomatic exit.

A professional question, would an agent in a promient position have the training and a ready to use device in case of an extreme emergency?

Of course all of this take assumes that it was a Shadow war hit and not a tribal or clan issue ala Faisal.

[turcopolier]

Thomas

Do the rebels have an air force? pl

[David Habakkuk]

Thomas,

There is what looks like as though it could conceivably be a response from the Saudis to the Voltaire Net story on Arab News today.

(See http://www.arabnews.com/thierry-meyssan-and-prince-bandar-bin-sultan )

The article is interesting in a number of ways – among them, the fact that it does not ignore claims about the close links between Bandar and and ultra-Zionist Jeffrey Feltman – appointed not long ago as U.N. Under Secretary General for Political Affairs. Also, while attempting to exonerate the Saudis for the Damascus bombing, the Arab News is happy to insinuate the U.S. may have been involved.

As to the non-appearance of Bandar, I do not find the explanation given in the story entirely convincing.

If I had to bet – which fortunately I do not – I would guess that Syrian, Iranian and Russian intelligence were clear that Bandar’s deputy had been killed in the blast, and uncertain whether he himself had escaped. The Voltaire Net report could have been a trial balloon floated by one or another of these, or more than one in combination, designed to sort the matter out one way or another.

To leave it totally without answer would have tended to confirm suspicions that Bandar was indeed dead, and the line taken in the Arab News story may have seemed the best way of handling the problem. It still seems to me that if Bandar was unhurt, it would have been more sensible to provide proof that that this was so. The possibility that he was not killed, but injured, should not I think be discounted.

Curiosity, of course, does not establish complicity. It seems clear there was an explosion, and there must have been a lot of rumours going about Riyadh about it, and quite irrespective of whether or not they had any involvement, Syrian and Iranian intelligence agencies would have wanted clarification.

[Thomas]

Thank you for the linked article.

Reading between the lines, it sounds as if he was injured and when he recovers he will make a public appearance.

[Thomas]

No they do not. If they can show gains, then maybe they could get the Outsiders to provide a couple truck loads of manpads. For an insurgent force that would allow them to equalize with airpower. Maybe that is what the Aleppo operation is about, take the city and you achieve credibility.

The issue I am curious about is how much of this war is Saudi-Iran Feud. Perhaps Brother Bashir wishes to abdicate but the Shia Security Shura is holding him to his oath to stand and fight?

[Thomas]

Interesting news today, King Abdullah invites President Ahmadinejad to talks.

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/08/05/230456.html