Sic Semper Tyrannis

Open Thread - 7 June, 2012

 

pl

"Annan’s new road map for peace in Syria" Ignatius

"...a transition plan and take it to Assad and the Syrian opposition. This road map would call for a presidential election to choose Assad’s successor, plus a parliamentary ballot and a new constitution — with a timeline for achieving these milestones.

Assad would presumably depart for Russia, which is said to have offered him exile; the Syrian dictator is rumored to have transferred $6 billion in Syrian reserves to Moscow already. Under this scenario, Assad presumably could avoid international prosecution for war crimes. Iran is also said to have offered exile to Assad and his family.

To contain the bloodletting that would follow Assad’s ouster, Annan is said to favor a detailed plan for reforming the security forces, similar to reforms in Eastern Europe after the fall of communism."  Ignatius

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The only "gripe" I have with the map above is that it conflates the Alawi religious homeland with areas inhabited by actual Shia Syrians.  The two areas adjoin.  IMO Alawis are not Shia or even really Muslims any more than are the Yazidis or the Druze.  To make matters even more confusing, the Shia are known in Turkey as "Alavi."

Nice try on the plan, but I doubt that this will be accepted by the Baathi/Shia/Sunni establishment in Syria.  Once again, this idea is based on the notion that the Assad family and Bashar in particular are the problem.  That is not the case.  The ethno-religious mozaic in Syria is the problem.  The Alawis and the more or less acculturated and wealthy Sunnis who now run Syria are not going to allow themselves to be dictated to and ruled by people whom they see as medieval in thinking as well as long standing "tribal" enemies.

The general conception of such contests within the ME is that they are always zero sum games.  This one is seen that way by the participants.  That is why they want the other side vanquished and they have no interest at all in compromise as a solution.

Westerners just don't "get it," and the locals like it that way.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/annans-new-road-map-for-peace-in-syria/2012/06/05/gJQAMuDiGV_story.html

http://geocurrents.info/geopolitics/syrias-ethno-religious-complexity-and-potential-turmoil

 

National Journal Blog - 2, 5 June, 2012

Should the U.S. Do More to Arm Yemen's Military? - National Security Experts.

pl

 

"Egypt’s travesty of justice..." Washpost

"Mr. Mubarak at least avoided the fate of Saddam Hussein, whose squalid execution followed an equally rushed and unsatisfactory trial. But his legal ordeal may not be over. The presidential candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood has promised to retry him if elected, and to keep him in jail “forever.” Arguably the author of decades of political repression deserves little better; but such political prosecutions only weaken the cause of a democratic rule of law in Egypt."  Waspost editorial

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As I said, and now, surprisingly, the Post has said, this was a farce fueled by the political immaturity and blood lust of the Egyptian mobocracy.

Where is Edmund Burke now that he is so needed.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/egypts-travesty-of-justice-with-hosni-mubarak/2012/06/04/gJQAuxWKEV_story.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/2004/04/hitchens.htm

 

National Journal Blog - 5 June, 2012

Should the U.S. Do More to Arm Yemen's Military? - National Security Experts.

pl

More ant-Shia bombings in Iraq

 

"A suicide bomber detonated an explosive-packed car outside a Shi'ite Muslim office in central Baghdad on Monday, killing at least 23 people and wounding more than 100 in an attack bearing the hallmarks of Iraq's al Qaeda affiliate.

The bombing on a Shi'ite religious office comes at a sensitive time, with the country's fractious Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs locked in a crisis that threatens to unravel their power-sharing deal and spill into sectarian tension."  Reuters

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This makes an interesting illustration of what Hank Foresman is talking abut in his piece today,  The hopes and ambitions of the neocons and the neo-Wilsonians have been smashed in the actual evidence of what has happened in the wake of US intervention in Iraq and neocon meddling in the internal affairs of countries like Egypt.

The neocons claim success in Iraq.  Can we afford more success like this?  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/04/us-iraq-violence-idUSBRE85308O20120604

History, How Soon We Forget - Foresman

Neither the United States nor the United Kingdom understands their history!

Given the shock of both liberals (e.g. Tony Blair) and neo-conservatives (e.g. William Kristol) to the events unfolding in Egypt, Libya, Iraq, they should take pause in urging the United States to involve itself in the affairs of Syria.

In the United States Government there are those who think intervening to end the violence is Syria is the right and proper course.  Of course most have never served in uniform. 

Most can speak about the absolutes of counter insurgency having never had to make it work.  Most believed that democracy would spring forth confluence of Tigris and Euphrates if we liberated Iraq; likewise they believe is Assad is overthrow suddenly Syria will become the beacon of democracy in the Middle East. 

Their naïvete about Syria is surpassed only by their naivete about Iraq.

 

Update on Sanger and classified disclosure.

David Sanger (NY Times) wrote the story published this week on the joint Israeli/US Stuxnet cyber sabotage project called "Olympic Games."  This is an ongoing highly classified covert action of the US Government.  It was presumably authorised by the president as a "finding" under the national security statutes of the US.

Today, on "Face the Nation," Sanger and his writing colleague claimed that they, over a period of a year,  had interviewed officials who had access to this program and who told them all about it "for reasons of conscience."  And then, according to the journalistic duo, they went to the White House to tell "them" how much they knew and to request yet more information.  They say that the government complied and gave them informatin to complete the picture of this ongoing US strategic covert action.

"DAVID SANGER: You know, in the case of Olympic Games, I spent a year working the story from the bottom up, and then went to the administration and told them what I had. Then they had to make some decisions about how much they wanted to talk about it. All that you read about this being deliberate leaks out of the White House wasn't my experience. Maybe it is in-- in other cases. I'm sure the political side of the White House probably likes reading about the President acting with drones and cyber and so forth. National security side has got very mixed emotions about it because these are classified programs."  Face the Nation - 3 June, 2012

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57446259/face-the-nation-transcript-june-3-axelrod-priebus-and-more/?pageNum=8&tag=contentMain;contentBody

Now it is true that the government has an absolute legal right to decide who it will prosecute or not prosecute for any federal crime. Nevertheless, the willingness of the Obama Administration to allow this particular security violation brings into question the willingness of the Obama Administration to prosecute journalists and sources in much less sensitive cases.  You can name the cases.  I was an expert witness in one and so will not comment on that matter.

If it occurred, was such government action legal? It probably was.  Was it unjust in light if the government's other actions?  Yes.

As I stated in another post, there really is no justice.  pl

 

New TA Post

New TA post.  pl

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2012/06/what-will-befall-carters-grove.html

 

Deepening Crisis in Iraq

 

"A series of intertwined political crises that began with accusations that Iraq's prime minister was consolidating power have escalated into calls to unseat him, and paralysed the country's government.

"The political crisis has reached its highest level since its beginning, but it is still running within the framework of the democratic game," Iraqi political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari said.

"The country is paralysed on all levels; there is a clear political paralysis paralleled by governmental negligence and a failure of the legislative authority, while the people are disappointed and afraid of the security consequences," Shammari said.

The trouble began in earnest in mid-December, when the secular Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc began a boycott of parliament and the cabinet over what it said was Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's centralisation of power."  AFP

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Ah, here we have the fruits of the neocon wisdom and way.  The Shia dominated government of Maliki, the former Da'wa terrorist, wishes to consolidates its grip on power at the expense of all others and if necessary by imprisoning them.  Is this a surprise to any non-neocon sentient being?

If this is Iraq, can Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Tunisia be far behind?  pl

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g2PMubVWdRnvsqjRBG_ZGHDJRkwg?docId=CNG.ce32178bf9c9ad0ec4f0918701083c2e.181

Mubarak sons acquitted on some charges

"Member of Knesset Binyamin Ben-Eliezer expressed "immense grief" over the conviction of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, who was sentenced to life in prison, saying he was hoping that the court will acquit the ousted ruler. 

"I expected the court to show a degree of compassion and mercy toward a man who dedicated his entire life to the security of the Egyptian nation, to its economy and prosperity," he told Ynet shortly after Judge Ahmed Rifaat read out the verdict 

Member of Knesset Binyamin Ben-Eliezer expressed "immense grief" over the conviction of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, who was sentenced to life in prison, saying he was hoping that the court will acquit the ousted ruler. 

"I expected the court to show a degree of compassion and mercy toward a man who dedicated his entire life to the security of the Egyptian nation, to its economy and prosperity," he told Ynet shortly after Judge Ahmed Rifaat read out the verdict"  ynet news.

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Well. there you have it:

Saddam - hanged by his successors

Qathafi - killed by the rebels

Ben Ali - to be tried by successors

Mubarak - sentenced to life by a judge he appointed to the bench.  The mob is howling for his head.. They may get it yet.

Salih - cries are rising for his trial

 

What do you think?  Is Bashar Assad going to "go quietly into that good night?"  Are the Saudi royals and th eprincelings of the Gulf going to be encouraged toward modernity by this event? 

You notice that some corruption charges have been dropped against the Mubarak family?  Guess what?  They will be convicted eventually.  The mob must have its lust for vengeance appeased.

You notice that my old friend Omar Suleiman is still a free man?  The conspiratorial minded will want to believe that demonstrates ongoing conspiracy.

The tumbrils have not yet started to roll in Egypt, but they will.  That will follow an MB victory in the presidential election.  The liberals will be among the passengers.  pl

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4237230,00.html

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/mubarak-s-sentence-saved-his-life-but-stripped-the-egyptians-of-justice-1.433953

 

NY Times reveals STUXNET operation

"This account of the American and Israeli effort to undermine the Iranian nuclear program is based on interviews over the past 18 months with current and former American, European and Israeli officials involved in the program, as well as a range of outside experts. None would allow their names to be used because the effort remains highly classified, and parts of it continue to this day."  David Sanger at the NY Times

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Either the "interviews" are a government program of controlled released of data to Sanger or the NY Times has set itself up for a massive confrontation with the US Government over official secrecy and the freedom of the press to pursue operational government data for the purpose of informing the public.  The Holder Justice Department has sometimes been willing to act over such matters and its reaction will tell us if the "interviews" were authorized.

I have presumed that a wide range of measures short of violence have been adopted against Iran's nuclear program and that Israel was probably in league with the US in such measures, so this is only mildly titillating news for me.

Was this an actof war?  You tell me.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html