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24 June 2012

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Abu Sinan

Sir,

I dont think this is all about the Muslim Brotherhood. I think what we are seeing here is synthesis between the main religious party and elements within the military. As has been pointed out on this site before, there is a growing religious presence in the Egyptian military. This presence is what allowed this to happen in the first place.

There is a significant portion of the Egyptian military that now is part of, or supports, the Muslim Brotherhood. I think this greatly complicates things and really makes the spectre of a full out civil war more possible.

turcopolier

Abu Sinan

There has always been a significant Islamist element in the Egyptian military. There also has always been an active program of purging and imprisoning them. Whether or not the Islamist element in the military is now large enough to block a coup against Mursi will probably determine whether or not there eventually is such a coup. pl

jr786

Mash'all-h. For the sake of the Egyptian people, I hope the question here is what can give them an honest, ethical and morally upright government.

I salute MB and their supporters. The fear in many quarters is not that they will institute some reactionary reign of terror but rather that they will show the world what a government inspired by Islamic principles can do for its people.

There will be a lot of snide remarks forthcoming but it's good to remember that Muslim Brotherhood kept the faith and never wavered. G-d has granted them victory. I pray for their success and good judgment and the well being of the good and decent people of Egypt.

The beaver

So I guess Mursi won't be the real boss if we can trust what is printed in this piece from WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304765304577482690379062050.html

Formally the deputy general guide, Mr. Al Shater heads the dominant conservative wing of the Brotherhood—also known as the "Persian Gulf" crowd. The son of a merchant, he dabbled in Nasserite Socialist student politics and gravitated to Islamism in the 1970s during Sadat's rule. After Sadat's murder, he joined many Islamists who went into exile in the Gulf—in his case to Saudi Arabia. He returned a devout Muslim and Brotherhood leader. His wife wears a niqab covering her face, which is atypical in Egypt. A fortune made in textiles, furniture and software allowed him to become the Brotherhood's chief financier. His intelligence and presence are the other sources of his political authority.

Will Al Shater be the mouthpiece/facilitator of Qatar and KSA?

JohnH

The military rendered the results meaningless last week. The new President is a figurehead with no meaningful power. But that result should satisfy the international community, since it can now tout Egypt's "democracy" and may even defuse much of the energy that went into having a government that was to be more accountable to the people.

turcopolier

MB

Please, only the clitoris and minor labia! I have asked Egyptians why they think women are better that way. No response. I assured them that women are more responsive if not "adjusted." They say they get that in the West. pl

Abu Sinan

FGM is a cultural practice done amoungst various peoples in Africa, Christian, Muslim and Animist. It has no religious basis in Islam, but as is very problematic in Muslim countries, all too often culture is confused and intertwined with religion.

For open disclosure I am married to an Egyptian lady, and was previously married to a Saudi lady. Neither have the practice done in their family. It isnt as commen in families in the West, although I have heard of if being done in Somali American families.

Castellio

Most people in Egypt despise the KSA.

Alba Etie

Will Egypt have a moderate Islamist government such as Erdogan's in Turkey ? And is Erdogan really a moderate ?
Off topic but Turkey has asked for an article four NATO review concerning the downing of its F4 Phantom . What will be the outcome of the downed Turkish jet re Syria & Assad ?

confusedponderer

If the Turks are wise they dismiss it as the odd navigation error that everybody knows it wasn't and nothing happens.

IMO the Turks probably quite deliberately did reconnaissance over Syria and that the aircraft eventually crashed in international waters doesn't mean it was not in Syrian air space when the Syrians fired. Supersonic jets move quickly.

Article 4, for that? I hope not. Of course the Turks can, if they are out for mischief, spin it into an "act of aggression" by Syria. Well see what happens.

As far as pretexts go, the incident is as good as any other.

turcopolier

All

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/27/world/middleeast/egypt-court-suspends-decree-imposing-martial-law.html?_r=1

Here we go. It did not take long to start. pl

Alba Etie

Col Lang
I have been studying on an ad hoc & limited basis the wiki on Egypt contemporary history ( re Zawhari Islamist Jihad) , -why do you feel that the Egyptian MB will go down the same path that Iranian Islamist Revolutionaries took ? Is this civilan court an Islamist court - that ruled against the militaryarresting civilans ?Should we be looking for Revolutionary Guards showing up next in Egypt ? Will there be a Quods equivalent in Egypt ?

turcopolier

Alba Etie

This court and the other courts soon are.will rule for the MB becasue they think that ultimately they will subdue the military. If the military does not halt this process Egypt will become an Islamist state. As to why the MB will do this I guess you did not read my comment in the NJ blog. pl pl

Alba Etie

No Sir - I did not - which blog ? The NJ blog ?

turcopolier

AE

Lang's Rules of Analytic Thought:

"1-Duck Rule: If it walks like a duck, squawks like a duck and has feathers, it probably is a duck.

2 – Sherlock’s Rule: When considering a problem, remove everything from consideration which seems untrue. What is left is probably the truth.

3-Occam’s Razor: In considering a complex phenomenon with many factors and a variety of explanations, remember that the simplest explanation that accounts for the factors is probably correct.

4- The KISS principal” “Keep it Simple, Stupid.” (Army Rule) "

pl

Alba Etie

Thank you Col Lang
-especially Keep it Simple Stupid -sound advice
( Where do I find the NJ Blog regarding the MB's final goals in Egypt ? )

turcopolier

AE

There was a link on my SST post. Hrtr it id sgsin.

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/how-should-the-us-respond-to-e.php

pl

Alba Etie

Now I understand nj- National Journal .

SAC Brat

Just got a raise for following those guidelines over the years analyzing and synthesizing. And reading, until the taken trail went cold.

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