"Iran and the Gulf Military Balance" CSIS

"In the wake of recent failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, it seems
increasingly unlikely that a political solution will be reached regarding
Tehran’s increasing uranium enrichment. As a result, some form of military clash
between the US and Iran, while by no means certain, is becoming increasingly
likely. Such a clash can take many different forms, and each presents different
levels of risk."  CSIS

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IMO the premise of this paper is wrong.  The essential competitiion in the Middle East is between Israel and Iran, not Iran and the US.  If there is such a rivalry, it is largely created by a willingness on the part of the US to assume Israel's strategic liabilities as its own. 

Iran contributes to that willingness by making threatening noises and playing stupid diplomatc games but it is hard to conceal the fact that absent an Iranian attack on US assets or people or a serious threat to the US homeland the issue of hegemony in the Middle East, is a regional issue. 

Unless the US is, in fact, the policeman of the world, why should we concern ourselves with Iranian "assymetric capabilities?"  pl

http://csis.org/publication/iran-and-gulf-military-balance-i-conventional-and-asymmetric-dimensions-0?utm_source=Iran+%26+the+Gulf+Military+Balance+I%3A+The+Conventional+and+Asymmetric+Dimensions&utm_campaign=Iran+and+the+Gulf+Military+Balance+-+I%3A+The+Conventional+and+Asymmetric+Dimensions&utm_medium=email

Comments

[Alba Etie]

Will Russian Leader Putin recent sitting down with BiBi have any impact on the potential conflict with Iran & Israel ? Did Mr Putin advise the Likud not to attack Iran ? I am not convinced that if the NeoCons & Likud allies both here and in Israel -have their way and an Israeli attack is conducted on Iran that We the USA - would not as a country be dragged into this new ME war . I for one pray Leader Putin advised BiBi not to attack Iran.

[confusedponderer]

Based on the apparently rather cool atmosphere after Putin's last meeting with Obama on Syria one can rather safely assume Putin didn't tell Bibi that attacking Syria or Iran is a brilliant plan that Bibi absolutely should go for.

Obama fails to secure support from Putin on solution to Syria crisis

But, crucially, Obama failed to secure the support of Putin for regime change in Syria. The US president had been seeking Putin's help in trying to persuade Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power and leave the country.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/obama-support-putin-syria-g20

[confusedponderer]

"IMO the premise of this paper is wrong. The essential competition in the Middle East is between Israel and Iran, not Iran and the US."

I concur.

[JohnH]

IMHO the US and Israel have bigger concerns in the Persian Gulf than Iran. Saudi Arabia has been as gung-ho as Israel to fight Iran to the last dead American.

Problem is, Saudi royals are starting to drop like flies. Crown Prince Naif died 10 days ago. The previous Crown Prince Sultan died nine months ago. The new Crown Prince Salman is 76 years old. King Abdullah is 87.

Naif was the Interior Minister since 1975, as key a figure in the ruling elite as anyone.

Succession is happening in Saudi Arabia. Things are becoming unsettled as royals assume new, unfamiliar roles and lay claim to turf. Knives are likely to get increasingly long as the sons of King Saud die off and the next generation competes for power.

Near term potential for instability is increasing.

The last thing the US needs is to be occupying, or even fighting insurgencies, on both sides of the Persian Gulf.

Funny how Washington and their media outlets never talk about this...

[Pirouz]

I see Cordesman included samples of Iranian rhetoric this time around. But why hasn't he included Iraq as an ally of Iran? Perhaps it hasn't sunk in yet.

[Bill]

The problem, though, is that that view doesn't explain why war appears to be drawing closer. I can understand Iran and Israel as competitors, as arch-rivals, and haters of the first class. But I can't understand war between them. What's the point? Neither can destroy the other except with nukes. Their conflict is for regional dominance, it's not a life-or-death struggle on either side. So why would they fight a war?

[Alba Etie]

Part of Putin's reluctance for supporting the West in regieme change in Syria IMO is more strategic then anything else . Perhaps the Russian really do not want to loose the seaport in Syria . Moreover they may see that if Assad is removed as a key ally to Tehran -that the Likud may actually decide that attacking Iran is more 'doable " ,. Furthermore IMO the PRC also is not supporting the West in ousting Assad for the same strategic concerns.

[Cal]

According to all major European newspaper accounts Putin did warn Israel off attacking Iranand then visited Abbas in Palestine.

[Cal]

The point is it's not about nukes. It's about removing a major regional influencer--Iran.
Israel wants to be the 'decider' and power balancer of the ME as the 'only' US ally.
For Israel, all others in the ME must be US enemies and Israel the 'only' friend.
Beside Israel doesn't intend to fight the war with Iran, they intend the US to do it for them.

[Cal]

I have never thought Cordsman was all he is cracked up to be....still don't think so.