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26 June 2012

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Alba Etie

Will Russian Leader Putin recent sitting down with BiBi have any impact on the potential conflict with Iran & Israel ? Did Mr Putin advise the Likud not to attack Iran ? I am not convinced that if the NeoCons & Likud allies both here and in Israel -have their way and an Israeli attack is conducted on Iran that We the USA - would not as a country be dragged into this new ME war . I for one pray Leader Putin advised BiBi not to attack Iran.

confusedponderer

Based on the apparently rather cool atmosphere after Putin's last meeting with Obama on Syria one can rather safely assume Putin didn't tell Bibi that attacking Syria or Iran is a brilliant plan that Bibi absolutely should go for.

Obama fails to secure support from Putin on solution to Syria crisis

But, crucially, Obama failed to secure the support of Putin for regime change in Syria. The US president had been seeking Putin's help in trying to persuade Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power and leave the country.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/obama-support-putin-syria-g20

confusedponderer

"IMO the premise of this paper is wrong. The essential competition in the Middle East is between Israel and Iran, not Iran and the US."

I concur.

JohnH

IMHO the US and Israel have bigger concerns in the Persian Gulf than Iran. Saudi Arabia has been as gung-ho as Israel to fight Iran to the last dead American.

Problem is, Saudi royals are starting to drop like flies. Crown Prince Naif died 10 days ago. The previous Crown Prince Sultan died nine months ago. The new Crown Prince Salman is 76 years old. King Abdullah is 87.

Naif was the Interior Minister since 1975, as key a figure in the ruling elite as anyone.

Succession is happening in Saudi Arabia. Things are becoming unsettled as royals assume new, unfamiliar roles and lay claim to turf. Knives are likely to get increasingly long as the sons of King Saud die off and the next generation competes for power.

Near term potential for instability is increasing.

The last thing the US needs is to be occupying, or even fighting insurgencies, on both sides of the Persian Gulf.

Funny how Washington and their media outlets never talk about this...

Pirouz

I see Cordesman included samples of Iranian rhetoric this time around. But why hasn't he included Iraq as an ally of Iran? Perhaps it hasn't sunk in yet.

Bill

The problem, though, is that that view doesn't explain why war appears to be drawing closer. I can understand Iran and Israel as competitors, as arch-rivals, and haters of the first class. But I can't understand war between them. What's the point? Neither can destroy the other except with nukes. Their conflict is for regional dominance, it's not a life-or-death struggle on either side. So why would they fight a war?

Alba Etie

Part of Putin's reluctance for supporting the West in regieme change in Syria IMO is more strategic then anything else . Perhaps the Russian really do not want to loose the seaport in Syria . Moreover they may see that if Assad is removed as a key ally to Tehran -that the Likud may actually decide that attacking Iran is more 'doable " ,. Furthermore IMO the PRC also is not supporting the West in ousting Assad for the same strategic concerns.

Cal

According to all major European newspaper accounts Putin did warn Israel off attacking Iranand then visited Abbas in Palestine.

Cal

The point is it's not about nukes. It's about removing a major regional influencer--Iran.
Israel wants to be the 'decider' and power balancer of the ME as the 'only' US ally.
For Israel, all others in the ME must be US enemies and Israel the 'only' friend.
Beside Israel doesn't intend to fight the war with Iran, they intend the US to do it for them.

Cal

I have never thought Cordsman was all he is cracked up to be....still don't think so.

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