"Annan’s new road map for peace in Syria" Ignatius

"...a transition plan and take it to Assad and the Syrian opposition. This road map would call for a presidential election to choose Assad’s successor, plus a parliamentary ballot and a new constitution — with a timeline for achieving these milestones.

Assad would presumably depart for Russia, which is said to have offered him exile; the Syrian dictator is rumored to have transferred $6 billion in Syrian reserves to Moscow already. Under this scenario, Assad presumably could avoid international prosecution for war crimes. Iran is also said to have offered exile to Assad and his family.

To contain the bloodletting that would follow Assad’s ouster, Annan is said to favor a detailed plan for reforming the security forces, similar to reforms in Eastern Europe after the fall of communism."  Ignatius

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The only "gripe" I have with the map above is that it conflates the Alawi religious homeland with areas inhabited by actual Shia Syrians.  The two areas adjoin.  IMO Alawis are not Shia or even really Muslims any more than are the Yazidis or the Druze.  To make matters even more confusing, the Shia are known in Turkey as "Alavi."

Nice try on the plan, but I doubt that this will be accepted by the Baathi/Shia/Sunni establishment in Syria.  Once again, this idea is based on the notion that the Assad family and Bashar in particular are the problem.  That is not the case.  The ethno-religious mozaic in Syria is the problem.  The Alawis and the more or less acculturated and wealthy Sunnis who now run Syria are not going to allow themselves to be dictated to and ruled by people whom they see as medieval in thinking as well as long standing "tribal" enemies.

The general conception of such contests within the ME is that they are always zero sum games.  This one is seen that way by the participants.  That is why they want the other side vanquished and they have no interest at all in compromise as a solution.

Westerners just don't "get it," and the locals like it that way.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/annans-new-road-map-for-peace-in-syria/2012/06/05/gJQAMuDiGV_story.html

http://geocurrents.info/geopolitics/syrias-ethno-religious-complexity-and-potential-turmoil

 

Comments

[JohnH]

Is there any difference between Syrian Alawi and Turkish Alavi other than pronunciation and transliteration of the letter "wow?" Turkish and Persians have this strange habit of pronouncing the "wow" as a "ve." Another example is that sweets are pronounced "helwe" is Syria but halva in Turkey (and Israel).

[turcopolier]

JohnH

They are different religions. The "Alawis" are a sect that split from Shiism in the Middle Ages. They believe in a trinitarian arrangement in the godhead. They are not Muslims IMO no matter how much Syrian law says that they are. The "Alavis"in Turkey are actual Shia Muslims. pl

[Kunuri]

About pronunciations... In Turkish it is "Alevi" and "Helva", but to American ears they would sound as "Alewi" and "Helwa" because there is no "w" letter in
Turkish alphabet, in its place, "u", "h" and "g" with umlaut on top, silent g is used. Native Turkish speakers can not distinguish between "v" and "w" sounds, that's why its always fun to get an English student to pronounce "vegetable" and "vowel"... And also "th", does not exist in Turkish, so "Many thanks" sounds like a dire guerilla warning. To be fair, I am just as clueless learning German, especially pronouncing v, f, w, z and s and the gurgle that passes as r.

About the Alevi in Turkey, they are not big on Mosques and Koran and the Prophet. Certainly not dogmatic and there is always a sense of melancholy and victimhood about them. They are peaceful, reflective, artistic people...Certainly not the kind to take the lead for Islam with the power of the sword, perhaps that's why they have been marginilized and alienated in Ottoman Turkey over the centuries. However, they have a sense of Zen Buddhism about them, their stoic stance and acceptance leads me to think so.

[William R. Cumming]

Defer to others on the religious makeup of the regions but what exactly are the stakes for all the "Great" and "Regional" powers in Syria? And why exactly did the French draw Syria in the WWI redrawing of the maps by the French and Great Britain? What is the oil situation in Syria as to its reserves? When in the past was Syria linked politically to Lebanon and Iran? What is the "Golden Crescent" historically and why the name? Just wondering about why I cannot seem to find any English language discussion of Syria in the 20th Century that makes much sense other than in the context of an Israeli opponent. What was the life of the Egyptian and Syrian attempt to merge or do I have the wrong countries?

[turcopolier]

WRC

What is now Syria was several or parts of several Ottoman provinces. The Arab Revolt, allied to the Entente powers, seized Damascus before the end of the war and claimed the city for a capital for a new pan-Arab stae to be created from Ottoman posessions. The Entente powers (Britain, France, etc.) decided to divide the same Ottoman posession to their own taste and interest and France received (at her insistence) a "mandate"that included present Lebanon and Syria. A French force landed at Beirut, marched to Damascus and deposed the Arab government. They separated Lebanon from the rest of Syria to create a "reservation" for the Syrian Christians and ruled both "countries" until 1943. To do this as cheaply as possible they used the Alawi minority as a willing tool. pl

[J]

Colonel,

I wonder just how 'little' that the White House (for several generations) has regarding ME history, and understands who does what and how. Hmmm.....one has to wonder if they have an opening for their (meaning White House) learning some history lessons? You could teach them a few things.

Have a good upcoming weekend all.

[JohnH]

The strategic stakes in Syria? 1) An obvious alternative to Turkey as a pipeline route for ME oil to the Mediterranean. (Turkey would not be happy about that.) 2) The site of Russia's only Mediterranean naval base.

The stakes for Israel, which is of paramount importance to the American political elite? 1) An "enemy" on the border (an enemy which has barely performed any hostile action since 1967.) 2) A pipeline for weapons to Hezbollah, which is about the only thing that has prevented Israel from seizing Litani water.

Mostly, Syria is a trivial irritant, once that has pig headedly refused to become either a US suzerainty or an Israeli one.

[Kunuri]

Albayim, I feel Syria fatigue is setting in, am I wrong? All that can be talked about is already talked, and the shock effect of these horrific massacres is decreasing, the world opinion is becoming desensitized. There will have to be some kind of military action sooner or later, what do you think the new threshold can be? I heard a retired ambassador on TV discussion program saying that a chemical attack on Turkey from Syria will trigger immediate invasion without waiting for NATO or UN approval, which would not be too difficult but he was wondering how would the Turkish Army get out...

[citizen]

Col Lang,

I've looked for materials on this topic, but as I don't speak Arabic or Adyge my search is necessarily weak. Are some of these Syrian Sunnis, the moderate, middle-class types, often pro Assad, descendants of the Circassians? Does that identity still have any political relevance?

Kunuri, as I gather, and correct me if I am wrong, the Alevis are stereotypically extremely secularist, very Kemalist. Most Alevis I've ever met, and they are expats, were secularists. They were very different than Sunni Turks I'm acquainted with, who were basically social climbing Anatolian country boys, first in their families to go to university. The Alevis, it seemed, had more in common politically and socially with Sunni Turks who were from the west of Turkey or had family roots in the military.

[D]

When I see this video it strongly reminds me of videos out of Iraq in the 2006-2008 time frame.
Elements of the FSA seem to share characteristics with the Sunni rebels in Iraq, and probably AQ in Iraq.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyFWi0IRD1Y&feature=channel&list=UL
Can someone translate all the slogans and what not?
Side impact mine?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1u_tivK6W_o

I accuse myself for having a hard time fully embracing them as freedom fighters this time.

[Kunuri]

I would like to share a link here about weapons used in Syria conflict I find helpful. I am sure this is nothing new to the old salt soldiers who comment here, but believe me, not all regulars here are. For me, as a Production Designer, it's work.

http://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/graphsandstat/equipment-syrian-conflict

[Kunuri]

Sorry Albayim, I don't mean to be a pest, but the more we know, the better opinions we can express, right? This may help...

http://www.understandingwar.org/report/syrias-armed-opposition

[rjj du Nord]

WRC, did you read John Keay's, Sow the Wind?

this might be useful: [??]

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v26/n24/charles-glass/diary

there seems to be a lot of stuff out there on The Internets, just not all in one place, so just have to find a thread and follow it.

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks PL and rjj du Nord!

[Babak Makkinejad]

Alavis are knowns as heretics in Turkey - "Kaferi" is what they are called in Turkish.

[Babak Makkinejad]

They do not know that history and they do not care since they believe US is so powerful as to be able to ignore all of that.

[Babak Makkinejad]

They are crypto-secularists; they want secualrism to protect them from the inevitable oppression of a Sunni religious-based state in Turkey.

Likewise for Kaferi.

[kao_hsien_chih]

So, Chekhov (in Star Trek) was actually speaking like a Turk (wessel instead of vessel etc) not a Russian, then?!

[Alba Etie]

Would it be useful to include Iran in the Annan peace process for bringing the Syrian civil war to an end under some kind of Kosovo Blue Helmet deployment ? I remember many experts thought that Yugoslavia after Tito would forever be rife with secreterian & other violence.
Would the Arab League sign off on such a deal ? Have not the Turkish & Russian military cooperated some in the former Yugoslavia in the UN peace keeping there ? Granted the Balkans appear to still be largely a hot mess- but at least their civil wars and openly hostile conflicts are for now dormant.

[Jane]

Secularism of the state does not automatically mean that the population forsakes religion. See the role of religion among the peoples of America and Turkey. Such secularism or even handedness of the state apparatus does allow various religious groups to live together peacefully with out the heavy hand of a dictatorship.

[kao_hsien_chih]

One difference, IMHO, is that Serbs, at least in principle, have a Serbia to go back to, should the accommodations in their current places of residence fall apart (as was the case in Serb-inhabited regions of Croatia and most of Kosovo). Alawiites in Syria have nowhere to go to (and neither do the non-Alawiites who have been cooperating with them). Also, in the former, Milosevic, in Serbia, could presume to speak for them and then sell them out to the West (certainly, this appears to be how they perceived it), while there is no one who'd sell the Alawiites out since Assad is not in his own country, away from the regions of conflict. I suspect the Alawiites (and their allies) are far more likely to fight to the bitter end than the Serbs in Bosnia or Croatia did.

[turcopolier]

Jane

Yes, unless the secular government persecutes religious people as occurred in Mexico before WW2. pl

[Kunuri]

citizen, you are 100% correct in your assesment of Alevi in Turkey, I have had posted comments similar to yours several times before. Very insightful, thank you. I shall be looking forward to your future comments, especially since you are so right on such a fringe issue.

[Kunuri]

D, please read a report on Syrian opposition I came across, I posted the link below, about the Syrian opposition. I follow the videos with extreme attention to detail and I also observed a change for the worse on the make up of the rebels.

http://www.understandingwar.org/report/syrias-armed-opposition

here, I post it again.

[Alba Etie]

I take the point that the Yugoslavia comparison to Syria is imperfect-But could the UN with Russia providing the Blue Helmet leadership carve out physical spaces for safe havens for the different groups ? And this time unlike Libya we have an iron clad guarantee that Assad and entourage would have safe passage to exile in Russia. Moreover unlike Libya the UN asks that the
Arab League provide a very large multi Arab peace keeping force. This type of UN mandated way forward would by necessity IMO also have to include the Iranians .