The "Double Agent" and the Yemen

-  The "Double Agent."  Evidently there was something "special" about the intelligence trail that caused the intercept of a bomb headed to the States from Yemen.  The media are full of the story that a penetrant reached the heart of the operation and caused its failure.  I am suspicious, 1-As he is described he would simply have been our agent or the Saudis', not a double agent.  A double is someone who  is "in play" for both sides.  This man is described as being solely ours.  But, the media are simpletons, so, what can one expect...  2- If this was actually a "leak" of the identity of an active penetrant, then great damage has been done to the US.  Peter King has called for an investigation.  If this story of the "leak" is true then he is correct in doing this. 3- On the other hand, perhaps some other element of intelligence work was the key to the success, and the story of the penetrant is "cover" to protect that source.  King may be playing along with that.  4- Another possibility is that the "leak' is intended to inspire distrust among the jihadis.

We will never know the answer to this conundrum and we should not.

- Yemen remains the focus of anti-terrorist vision.  Few seem to realize what the ethnography and politics of Yemen are like.  AQAP is all Sunni.  Yemeni Sunnis are generally Hanafi in terms of their placement in the Islamic array of Mathahib (schools of law).  They are confined to the area south of Sana and east in what was British South Arabia and then the PDRY.  Their Hanafi identity is an inherent problem for the Wahhabi AQAP.  The British created a political entity in the area east of Aden in what was in fact a series of acts of inattention by London and local initiative by the authorities in tha Crown Colony of Aden.  Aden wa a "coaling station" on the route to India.  It was surrounded by a an incoherent  jigsaw puzzle of Emirates, Sheikhdoms, Sultanates, tribal territories, etc.  These little "countries" caused trouble across the border in Aden.  Britain reached out and annexed or "protected" the nearest.  Then, they discovered that what they had succeeded in achieving was a larger perimeter of local states outside the ones they had acquired.  Inevitably, the process was repeated over and over again until the 1950s when a Labor government in the UK called a halt and withdrew.  Present day Yemen remains a patchwork of sects and tribes and minor leaders, all of which have armed forces made up of warriors who have often served in the armed forces including many officers who on some occasion "went home."  AQAP is led by Saudis and other non-Yemeni infiltrators who are trying to establish themselves  in the patch of former south Yemen where there are enough disaffected Sunni tribesmen to generate support for them.   At least half the people of Yemen are Zeidi Shia tribesmen organized into two large confederations of tribes, the Hashif and the Bakil.  These Zeidi Shia are the real warriors in Yemen.  They have nothing to do with Iran, nothing.  They are conservative in their way of life and are religiously so close to the Sunni law schools that they are often described as a fifth school of Sunni law.  They are Mu'tazila in their consensus on the nature of Islam.  They hate and despize the Sunni Arabs around Aden.  The idea that these Shia tribesmen will ever make peace with AQAP or allow them a foothold anywhere in Yemen is ludicrous.  One other thing about them is that, like the Pushtun, they like war.  So, keep up the pressure on the AQAP auslanders.  The Zeidi tribesmen will always be with you in that fight.

pl

Comments

[Basilisk]

It's never been entirely clear to me what T.S. Eliot intended, but it seems apropos:

In a wilderness of mirrors. What will the spider do,
Suspend its operations, will the weevil
Delay?

It seems unhelpful to belabor these things.

[mbrenner]

A couple of stray thoughts. If what we know is the straight story, then a question arises as to the purpose of the 'double" in volunteering to carry the bomb. Was he in fact the only volunteer and, therefore, his doing so necessary confirmation of the group's intention actually to carry out the act? After all, he could have revealed the plans (if and when they crystallized) AND continued as an infiltrated agent in a position to provide important details about persons, organizations, contact, etc. He was a unique asset from what we're told. If the only volunteer, what does it say about the group's capabilities?

Is this incident not further evidence of how limited are the terrorist abilities to strike the US/West? Planting a bomb on an airplane is a far cry from 9/11 or the imagined horrors of nuclear fizzle bombs placed in Michael Bloomberg's executive rest room.

[MartinJ]

Col
I fear that Yemeni Zaydi society is disintegrating. The Huthi rebellion is symptomatic of this. The regime of Ali Abdallah Saleh his cousin, Ali Muhsin, and the forces behind the religious Islah party (the Al-Ahmar brothers of the Usaymat tribe of Hashid, with Shaykh Zindani from the Arhab tribe of Bakil) have drifted from Zaydism to 'pretending' to be Sunnis. In much the same way that the Asads have become 'Sunnified', it serves a purpose - partly to gain largesse from the Saudis and partly to seek support from the Sunni southern and eastern parts of the country.
In doing so they have shifted the heart of the country away from its traditional base, the Zaydi North, which is one of the reasons the Huthis felt marginalised and started an insurgency. The other reason behind the insurgency is because their traditional caste system is eroding. The poor, non-tribesmen, butchers, traders etc at the bottom of the pile have been opting out of Zaydism and moving towards Wahhabism from their time spent in Saudi Arabia. With Wahhabism everyone is equal, no tribal/Zaydi heirarchy.
Shaykh Zindani - he who harboured Ayman Al-Awlaqi in his farm, is from the Zaydi heartland but who has converted to Wahhabism. Many of his immediate tribe, the Bayt Al-Hanaq of the Zindan of the Arhab are ex-Afghan mujahidin.
Like you, Im not so worried about AQAP, but I am wondering about the crumbling of the Zaydi system as it ajdusts to the modern world.

[Abu Sinan]

There is a rather large Yemeni community here in the DC area, even where I work. I had one Yemeni lady, a Zaydi, describe their form of Shi'a as "Shi'a light". Hanafi is kind of the same, not so extreme as the Hanbalis (Wahabis) next door.

[turcopolier]

MartinJ

Congratulations on knowing so much about this. IMO factional fighting among the Zaidis is unimportant. They have always fought each other. The Arab segmentary lineage system feeds that tendency. When I was DATT in Sana there were half a dozen tribal wars going on all the time. Somewere against other Zaidia, some against Salih and some against the Sunnis. pl

[mbrenner]

Someone has called my attention to reports that the double agent brought with him not only the bomb but also "inside information on the "terrorist group's leaders, locations, methods and plans." If it is true that he was so successful, then the question of why he was withdrawn is answered. In so doing, though, another question is highlighted. If a low level recent recruit is able to acquire such vital and comprehensive information, then the organization must be pretty small and unsophisticated. Obviously not the Goldman Sachs of international terrorism as visualized in the overheated imaginations of the terrorism warriors.

[Mark Gaughan]

Pat,
Thanks for sharing all of your knowledge with us. I learn so much here.
Mark