Sunday News - 8 April, 2012

Afghanistan -  "a newly formed national force — the Afghan Special Operations Unit — will have the authority to search houses and private compounds and arrest suspected insurgents, Afghanistan’s Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said Sunday. U.S. forces will provide support “only as required or requested,” according to the agreement, which was signed by Wardak and General John R. Allen, the commander of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan."  Washpost

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Wardak (and his son) are reputed to be at the heart of Karzai government money corruption in Afghanistan.  They also maintain relations with the "opposition" that are good enough to clear the way for logistics convoys.   Surely General Allen knows that these operations will leak like a sieve when it is convenient to Wardak and company.  Another coffin nail for the US presence in Afghanistan.  pl

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Egypt - Umar Suleiman knows he has little chance of becoming president of the degenerating mass that is post Mubarak Egypt.  Umar Suleiman is not on trial.  He was questioned and released without injury to his rights as a citizen.  Why?  He was head of the GID, the Egyptian EXTERNAL intelligence service, not the INTERNAL service.  He did not work for the Ministry of the Interior (Police Ministry)  Both of those are on trial or awaiting trial.  It was not US's job to oppress Egyptians.  It was theirs'.  He is known to be uninterested in money as a basis for existence on the Mubarak or Wall Street models.  He is a devout Muslim without taint of Islamist zealotry.  He likes the West, and the US?  Excuse me if I do not apologize on his behalf.  Israel?  Well, it was his duty.   Why has he done this foolish thing in deciding to run?  He is 75 years old.  If we were still in touch I would have advised him not to do this...  Amre Moussa will probably win.  pl

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Yemen - Last year I tried to make the point on a number of occasions that the union of North and South Yemen is unstable and may not last.  That seems even clearer now.  The former North Yemen country (YAR) continues to be dominated by confederations of Zeidi Shia (Fivers) tribesmen.  These are highly self aware and heavily armed forces among which many have served in the Armed forces and were trained by the US, the UK, France and the USSR.  The Zeidi Shia are nothing like the Twelvers in Iraq and Iran but a connection is relentlessly sought by the ignorant.  The former South Yemen (PDRY) is overwhelmingly Sunni Arab, organized into largely de-racinated city swellers and sedentary villagers in the far flung wadis of the south.  The PDRY was a Marxist-Leninist state.  That set of ideas was taught in state schools for decades.  Ali Abdullah Saleh was no saint but he was also no Marxist.   Following his departure he was replaced with a "Sunni" general from the greater Aden area.  That man knows that to maintain power he must rid himself of the Zeidi tribesmen that fill the armed forces and security services.  Maliki understands the same thing in Iraq,  His situation is merely the mirror image.  The attempted purge of Zeidi officers that led to the airport seizure is the first act in this drama not the last.  AQ in Yemen watches on the sideline.  It knows that it would have far more running room in an independant South Yemen than it ever will have in the Zeidi country.  pl

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Israel - Ehud Bark was on Zakariya's GPS show today.  I knew him when he used to say that Israel could do anything with its bayonets but "sit on them."  I liked him better then even if he was closely linked to the Pollard Affair.  He told Zakariya today that  1-MAD is not possible with Iran and therefore containment is not possible, 2- He predicted that Iran will build ICBMs for its as yet non-existent weapons and therefore Israel is trying to save the world from its own stupidity, 3- He does not believe that sanctions will dissuade to Iranians from their putative nuclear weapons program.  IMO his vision of the true effect of the present sanctions is the reduction of Iran to a peasant and therefore harmless state.  He reiterated that there is a limit to Israel's patience.  IMO opinion this discourse makes the war or peace issue a question of American ability to deter Israel.

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US Intelligence - In what is clearly a government press release, the US published today an exposition of the quality of its information regarding Iranian programs.  Two staff journalists at the Washington Post wrote this up from rather complete interviews granted by what are described variously as former senior intelligence officials.  Let us not be coy.  If these were anything but recent former directors of the CIA the men in question would be headed for indictments.    The story reeks of of the CIA is its role as propagandist.  The subtle denigration of the rest of the IC is familiar.  Is this story a bad thing?  No! It is good!  The target audiences are; Israel, Iran and the Zionist 5th Column in the US Congress and media.  The message is clear.  The US will know well in advance if Iran decides to build weapons.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/united-states-and-afghanistan-sign-deal-on-night-raids/2012/04/08/gIQA3Sf13S_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/9193409/Hosni-Mubaraks-former-intelligence-chief-Omar-Suleiman-to-run-for-Egypt-presidency.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/08/yemen-airport-idUSL6E8F80LP20120408

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-sees-intelligence-surge-as-boost-to-confidence/2012/04/07/gIQAlCha2S_story.html?hpid=z1

Comments

[Walrus]

Regarding the Iran intelligence, the suggestion from at least one blogger is that there are three components to this "message":

1. CIA self promotion.

2. Reassurance to domestic hawks and doves ie. "we will know in good time, etc."

3. To Iran? " we know everything, nothing can be hidden."

An image of maturity - an adult among screaming children.

http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/4/8/iran-propaganda-special-us-intelligence-trust-us-we-know-eve.html

[The beaver]

On Iran again:
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/04/mek.html#ixzz1rEeZZDZw

The M.E.K.’s ties with Western intelligence deepened after the fall of the Iraqi regime in 2003, and JSOC began operating inside Iran in an effort to substantiate the Bush Administration’s fears that Iran was building the bomb at one or more secret underground locations. Funds were covertly passed to a number of dissident organizations, for intelligence collection and, ultimately, for anti-regime terrorist activities. Directly, or indirectly, the M.E.K. ended up with resources like arms and intelligence. Some American-supported covert operations continue in Iran today, according to past and present intelligence officials and military consultants.

[FB Ali]

Why has he done this foolish thing in deciding to run?

Col Lang has asked a good question. There appear to be two possibilities. Either he wanted to give the supporters of the old Mubarak regime one last chance to express their feelings (without any expectation of winning). Or, the generals panicked and got him to run so that they can block the Brotherhood candidate's likely success (possibly because the ex-Mubarak PM, Air Marshal Ahmad Shafik, wasn't doing too well in the polls).

In the latter case, they will have to rig the voting in order to get Suleiman elected. If the vote is reasonably free, I think the Brotherhood candidate will prevail in the run-off against Amr Moussa.

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

IMO it will be a bloody disaster if either or both Islamist parties gain presidential power. That is probably what motivates him. If the MB and/or Nur gain power the stage will be set for an eventual showdown between the generals and the government. pl

[LeaNder]

Jeffrey Goldberg uses Roger Cohen in his Link Festival, to get his basic message over it feels, what does the idyllic introduction feels like to you? I leave out the celebration of co-ideologue Goldberg by Avi Shavit.

http://tinyurl.com/Link-Festival

http://tinyurl.com/Haaretz-Avi-Shavit

So temperatures are rising in Jerusalem. As time is running out the Goldberg scenario becomes more and more likely. What he hears from his sources, and what I hear from my sources, lead us to believe the coming summer is a crucial one. If senior Israelis are now shouting gewald, American decision makers and opinion leaders had better pay close attention.

Let's hope this is all only about getting the Iron Dome + now the Magic Wand too from the US. After all summer would be a very, very bad time for Obama. Avi slips in an escape route: Personally, I hope Cohen is right.

I trust Avi Shavit about as much as I trust Goldberg or Bibi's administration
http://tinyurl.com/Palestinian-view-Shavit

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

I agree as far as the Salafis are concerned!

I think the MB in power will follow a cautious policy. Light on Shariah, and treading carefully with the military. However, they are likely to (slowly) change the country's foreign policy -- no longer a US client state, a 'cold peace' with Israel, much closer to Turkey.

It probably won't be a disaster -- even from the US point of view. It'll get very messy if the generals refuse to concede anything and over-reach. My guess is that will cause disruption in the military; the younger officers and men will not support them.

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

Ah, but what you describe is a disaster from the US point of view. I think the MB will install a creeping Slafist state and I am not so sure that the troops will not obey. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

That might be but one cannot live other peoples' histories for them.

The military in Algeria nullified the elections, where people clearly had voted for Islam, and the result was another disaster.

[Thomas]

Umar Sulieman announced on April 6th so it appears he was drafted for service by the liberals and left.

A professional with no ego and the ability to effectively administer the Executive office would be ideal for the first President in a newly forming political entity. And age would allow accepting for one term only while giving time for other constituencies to gain their political footing. Now media ,west and east, make him out to be just another Old Regime hand, why wouldn’t a wise and honorable man see the situation his country is in, understand that there is an opportunity for it, and take part in the process? A leader willing to do over the narcissist wishing to be in these crucial times.

Even without winning, he could help set the civic discourse in debates and with speeches.

Just my outside observations and why I saw this as a good sign.

[David Habakkuk]

He predicted that Iran will build ICBMs for its as yet non-existent weapons and therefore Israel is trying to save the world from its own stupidity.

This claim made by Barak has been tried out in the British press over the past few months. For example, in February, the Daily Mail – a mid-market, generally conservative paper – recycled, as fact, Israeli claims that Iran was developing a missile with a range of 6,200 miles.

(See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2095722/UK-range-Irans-missiles-Clegg-says-worried-war-break-out.html )

A quick glance at the best-rated comments makes clear that that this is widely seen as an attempt to repeat the con-trick on the basis of which we were inveigled into the war in Iraq. The effect is both to cause intense resentment, and also to put into sharp relief questions about the influence of Israel on British politics, both indirectly, through its influence on American policy, and directly, through organisations such as the ‘Friends of Israel’ in the main political parties.

An example:

Any politician who is a 'friend of Israel' (most government/opposition ministers/deputies) should be banned from government office! Politicians have been elected to solve our domestic problems of which there are many, in the first instance, not provide legitimacy and support for the barbaric actions of the country who is the real threat to world peace ...... Israel!

[LeaNder]

Shock Doctrine in Egypt: Sharif Abdel Kouddous on Post-Mubarak Economic Crisis, Presidential Race

Interview with Sharif about Egypt, first elections Suleiman's last minute decision and timely management of requirements to enter the race, about the MB candidate/s other admitted or non admitted wanna-be-presidents; last troubles with the constitution or more precisely the MB will to power.

Hard times in Egypt, it seems.

http://www.democracynow.org/2012/4/10/shock_doctrine_in_egypt_sharif_abdel

Seymore Hersh: America, Israel, MEK, Intelligence & other activities - Amazing cast of US supporters we have there. Is Maryam Rajavi to be the new Ahmed Chalabi?

http://www.democracynow.org/2012/4/10/training_terrorists_in_nevada_seymour_hersh