This is a perennial story. I have seen it all my life. It is easily possible to analyze fragments of information to produce a general picture of what will occur. It is much harder to acquire specifics with regard to particular future enemy activities. To do that requires highly capable SIGINT, HUMINT, etc.
A COIN campaign like the one in Afghanistan is one of the hardest "arenas" in which to forecast particular future enemy operations. These forces have little equipment, little communications equipment and thus present a small "target" for information collection.
HUMINT penetrations of the enemy are the answer. In a civil war like the one in Afghanistan this should be quite possible if skill and imagination are present.
Evidently they are not. pl
http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/16/karzai-intelligence-failure/?iid=article_sidebar
The enemy probably largely the Taliban seem to have quite excellent HUMINT!
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 17 April 2012 at 09:05 AM