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20 April 2012

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kao_hsien_chih

It is the same offer we made to the Serbs at Rambouillet, except that the surrender/ethnic cleansing was just over Kosovo at that time. I imagine that the Alawis of Syria have nowhere to go, unlike the Serbs of Kosovo, who could, at least, go to other parts of Serbia.

Dr Onan Agitprop, DD

Freeze, Gopher!

Charles I

While Panetta pipes up that the U.S must be ready to use all means necessary, former State Dept thingy Richard Haass now of the CFR can be found at the BEEB opining that there is no appetite, no clear cost/benefit, and most importantly, no coherent identified political opposition to suppprt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17779554

Ergo, create one that will deliver a platform for a future for all Syrians, then you'll have something to work with, arm, etc.

I heard an interview with a war journo in there background on the CBC radio show Dispatches yesterday, dunno who, who pointed out that no journalists, aside from Nir Rosen, have really reported on the "opposition. Or rather its lack of existence in any form other than small bands of rebels, fighters, victims, who knows.

Then there was a clip wherein a reporter finally got some rebel interviewee to admit the logic of inviting jihadis to Syria in lieu of Nato.

Nowhere fast.

Matthew

Col: I believe Assad basically told a group of Sunnis that the Sunnis are the reason his government is still standing. Like all things in the ME, the sides are mixed, the players morally compromised, and the "good guys" barely distinguishable from the "bad guys."

Do you have a prognosis?

turcopolier

Matthew

The Sunnis who are siding wit hthe Syrian government along with the Alawis are the more secular Baath priented elements in the Sunni population. It is the other ones who are Islamists who are fighting the government with Saudi support for the ultimate goal of creating a state under Sunni rule. pl

turcopolier

All

In the absence of Tukish military intervention my forecase is that the Syrian government wil lsuppress the Sunni Islamist rebellion. If Assad and company ar ewise they will then open the country up to the outside world. pl

Bill H

I have seen it cited that the Sunnis, merchant class, Alawis and Christians are siding with the Assad government. Each has its own reason for that I would suppose. Can anyone tell me what percentage of the population those groups would add up to?

Morocco Bama

PL, certainly it remains to be seen but I believe Assad's ego will supersede his intellect. He's being backed into a corner and slowly but surely being given only one way out....but his ego is clouding his judgment and he believes he has more options. I found this "plea" to Assad's wife rather interesting. The video is in English even though everything else is in French.

http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/video/2012/04/19/syrie-des-femmes-d-ambassadeur-interpellent-l-epouse-de-bachar-al-assad_1687816_3218.html

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