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29 March 2012

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Matthew

Col: I wonder if those Miami Cubans will be as popular in a new Cuba as Chalabi was in the New Iraq.

r whitman

I have said for many years the way to defeat the Castros was to end the embargo and ship all the free Coca-Cola Cubans want for 18 months. Then stop it.

HankP

I agree about the embargo, but I disagree about the end of communism. Much more likely that they'd morph into the "political communism with economic capitalism" version of communism the same way that China did. And that's the real problem with what deregulation and poor political oversight has done to our system, they've made China look like a better model to the rest of the world.

turcopolier

HankP

Cuba is not China. It is 90 miles from the USA. The Cuban Americans have lots of money and lots of relatives there. They don't seem to have any trouble when they visit. pl

Walrus

The saddest thing for the One percenters is that European busineses have been planning their investments in Cuba for at least Twenty years.

Mike Martin, Yorktown, VA

Pat, yes! Being married to a "media Cubana", I'd love to see these stale restrictions repealed so we could visit freely. And I agree completely that open borders would likely spell the demise of Communism there.

James ben Goy

Col. Lang, I totally agree with you on this. Add in the fact that Cuba, according to a report I read, offered compensation of $5 billion for expropriated property years ago and it makes me wonder why the embargo continues. Even the Cuban community in Florida has begun to turn against it. American exporters have been against it for years.

HankP

Col. -

Yes, I know they're not the same. But I don't think they'll happily agree to be totally dominated by the United States no matter how many of their rich relatives return. That's an issue with a lot of central and south American countries.

Medicine Man

Is such a thing politically possible in the US though?

Pirate Laddie

Planning? As far back as the early '80's, any Canuk who could rub two loonies together was angling to do business in Cuba. If the Euros are just getting on the boat for Havana, they'll be surprised when they're met by Canadians at the quayside.
Of course, the first generation of Cuban expats were and (those still living) probably still are livid that anyone is willing to do business with the island's rulers -- who chased the 'garchs and mafiosi off the island and, using Soviet subsidies, provided schooling and medical care to two generations of Cubans.

kao_hsien_chih

The Taiwanese, especially those with mainland ties, are very much welcome in PRC. No reason to think it'd be otherwise in Cuba.

Morocco Bama

Castro looks like a monk in that picture. He was educated by Jesuits....one of them even saying he would make a great leader one day.

CTuttle

This is extremely worrisome, Col...

Israel's Secret Staging Ground...

...A U.S. military intelligence officer noted that Azeri defense minister did not explicitly bar Israeli bombers from landing in the country after a strike. Nor did he rule out the basing of Israeli search-and-rescue units in the country. Proffering such landing rights -- and mounting search and rescue operations closer to Iran -- would make an Israeli attack on Iran easier.

CTuttle

Naturally, the Hasbara Apparatchik was quick to respond...

Israelis Suspect Obama Media Leaks to Prevent Strike on Iran...

Morocco Bama

Maybe Adelson can open up some Casinos there and Goldman Sachs can relocate to the tropical paradise, not to mention the upside for the drug trade. Yeah, the cubans can go from free healthcare to being mandated to pay inflated premiums for crappy insurance coverage so a few fat cats can increase their ROI's.

Fred

That depends on how many Cubans who lived under Castro get evicted so the property gets returned to the expatriates.

Jose

I agree on ending the embargo, but nobody will want to give up their U.S. citizenship.

William R. Cumming

For many years official Washington worried that the end of the Castro regime would result in wholesale immigration from Cuba to the USA. That thought seems to have ended.
Cuba contains over 11 million people now. Most Americans would label 85% of Cubans as black based on typical racial type casting in the USA. Since 1959 of the Cubans leaving Cuba for the USA 85% have been white based on what passes for white in the USA. If those figures are accurate then given USA proclivities probably unlikely that many would be migrating post Castros from one country to another. About 60,000 Cubans leave each year for the USA and Spain under current visa policies.

The key question of course for the future of Cuba is who will own the MLB franchise(s) in Cuber?

turcopolier

Jose

I don't see any reason why they would have to give up US citizrnship. pl

Jake

We have been talking about this for years... You think folk like Bob Menendez are not going to block any reforms even though his own party thinks its a good idea? The old guard Cuban voting block though shrinking is still in power....

William R. Cumming

Walrus! Many EU countries, Canada, and Mexico allow Cuban investments. The reason the country is not more outwardly prosperous is graft and corruption. Communism has never been "classless" as the Chinese demonstrate daily!

Looks more and more like major oil and gas offshore of Cuba and the biggest expropriation claimants post CASTROS will be the USA energy sector.

William R. Cumming

And to note for the record, Haiti which is 700 miles offshore, continues to be apocalyptic in its current post-earthquake situation. Because USA policy is largely to let Haitians drown [of course they are black] while allowing Cubans entry [largely white] Haitians are now desperately seeking to leave and reach other countries in the Western Hemisphere.

I am of course predicting still a very very low voter turnout this fall, and especially among black voters. Perhaps recent positions in the media explain some of the efforts by the Administration to overcome that prediction.

Paul Escobar

HankP,

You underestimate those who live overseas.

China did not popularize that model you speak of. Singapore & South Korea did. Those "tiger" nations rose under authoritarian governments who harnessed both central planning & private implementation to develop their economies.

The Chinese took notice, and adapted those lessons to their circumstances. The Cubans are following the Chinese lead.

The difference is, Cuba - unlike China - isn't handicapped by serious population & territorial concerns. That gives the Cubans less incentive to maintain the harsh security controls you see in China.

A more accurate prediction is that a future Cuba will look like the modern nations of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, & Argentina in terms of governance structure. Namely, the place will be run by an economically populist government with a mild authoritarian streak.

But as it relates to the Church...the "culture wars" will end. Like Hugo Chavez, you'll see the future Cuban president embracing Christ & telling Fox News that "gay marriage" is not acceptable in his nation.

James Nawrocki

I was legally in and around Havana with a humanitarian group in November 2011, and could not agree with you more.We were there to bring medicine to a number of childrens' hospitals. This is whom the embargo really hurts.
A 48 star US flag still awaits being raised at the light house in honor of when the next US flagged vessel comes for a post visit.
And when the day comes, and it will come, when the embargo is over, I expect to see change happening at a speed much faster than between East/West Germany post 1990.

Fred

I think the numerous pieces of legislation related to the embargo also include sanctions on foreign companies investing in Cuba if they also do business in the US.

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