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06 March 2012


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William R. Cumming

More intelligent dialogue! Can we have a ranking as to why specifically Iran may want the "bomb"?

Jonathan House

Off topic, but on Iran and Syria.
Esam Al-Amin publishes an interesting analysis of the situation and the prognosis for Syria.
He details various possible scenarios which he calls:
- The Tunisia/Egyptian scenario
- The Yemeni scenario
- The Libyan scenario
- The Iraqi/Somali scenario
- The assassination plot scenario
- The grand political bargain scenario
- The long-term regime attrition scenario
and concludes saying:
"The US committed a grave miscalculation when it invaded Iraq in 2003. The Bush administration had the illusion that Iraq would somehow become an American colony, its military base, a client state, or America's gas station. At the end, it handed over Iraq to Iran on a silver platter as Iran's allies have taken over the country. Almost a decade later, Iran is committing the same miscalculation with its unconditional backing of the Assad regime. Whichever scenario plays out, it is unlikely that Assad would survive, unless Israel attacks Iran, resulting in a whole new calculus."

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