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07 March 2012

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JTCornpone

I agree with alinaustex.

I have commented before that I believe that this war talk is all about meddling in our election. Not attacking Iran has a pretty good chance of ending up with no Iranian nuke according to our intelligence community. Attacking Iran has a very large chance of bringing about a nuclear Iran. An attack then makes no sense in Bibi's own terms. His own worst nightmare would surely come true. Also if I were really going to attack a country I'd keep my mouth shut about it to maximize surprise. Thus my conclusion that it's all for our domestic political consumption.

However here are some other possibilities to consider:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-07/have-oil-speculators-already-priced-in-war-with-iran

Maybe Israel is talking war to manipulate the oil futures market either for the political reason above or just to rake some free money off the futures exchanges or both.

Or it could be that Col. Lang is correct that Bibi might be so scared and irrational that he's not thinking clearly. But I really don't want to believe that just because I want to believe that human affairs make at least a little logical sense. But I was an engineer by training and have always understood things better than people.

Lets just hope that the politics hypotheses is correct and that the oil futures are responding to fear and not Israeli insiders trying to pick up some big bucks off a planned war.

JT

ps: (with thanks to E L) I guess Mitt forgot about Iran's other ally in the region (thanks to us), Iraq, and also that Iran has quite a bit of seacoast of its own without needing Syria. I think Mitt was just randomly pushing the "Iran" and "Syria" buttons on his playlist.

rjj

How precarious is Milekowski politically?

Best way to paper over internal divisions is with an external threat. Perhaps, like Dershowitz who needs to believe that only an antisemite would think he is a horse's ass, Benny is also indulging in a bit of ego sparing projection. Not that crazy. The perception is accurate, the interpretation of the perception is not.

What the heck ... if T. Vincent/greywolf can do it....

rjj

edit: for projection, read displacement.

The beaver

Charles

It won't be funny if Bolton turns around and put Cheney's daughter,Liz as Ambassador at the UN :(

rjj

WRT Bolton (Odious) and Feith (Dimmius): Didn't the unions in the old days require that stooges be placed on every project - ditto Soviets and political commissars? Maybe those two were chosen because they are so preposterous.

Probably not.

Oh well.

MRW

From a NYT comment on Freidman's latest Israel column I was reading before coming here:

Let's cut the nonsense: US intelligence agencies have determined in two National Intelligence Estimates that Iran is *not* developing a nuclear weapon. So these sanctions are not only cruel in punishing the Iranian people unnecessarily, but are based on incorrect information, or political propaganda. It is illogical to claim that American military might is needed to accomplish the bombing, because Israel doesn't have the capacity for it, but the strength of US intelligence isn't up to the task of determining why we would be bombing.

MRW

If "Iran is next door to Israel" why do they need our help?

E L

And, also likely, Mexico.

E L

In re your Bibi optimism: “History is the autobiography of a madman.” —Alexander Herzen.

toto

MRW: IIUC, the ostensible goal of the sanctions is to force Iran to open up so that we can be sure that they won't start developing nuclear weapons in the future. So there's no direct contradiction there. At least if one believes that sanctions could bring whoever is actually in charge in Iran to accept real inspections.

Of course the operative word here is ostensible.

Leo

The issue is Range of Iranian missiles (and you know it) Iranians are in the process of developing ICBM's but they do not posses them at the moment, though they have the ability to launch small light satellites into orbit and are making progress.

Their Medium range missiles can reach Israel, but can't reach the USA, in that aspect they are "next door" to Israel.

I read this post of yours and couldn't believe that you were higher up working for the US government, or maybe i should that will explain a thing or two.

And the amazing thins is the choir you assembled here who say Amen to every nonsense you spew out of your mouth.

Fred

Leo,

the issue is what is in the interest of the United States of America. Last time I looked the State of Israel has neither ratified the US Constitution nor been invited to join our Republic.

optimax

What's your mother tongue? Obviously, it's not English.

turcopolier

Leo (in Berkeley)

I told you not to show up here with another name. Insults are nor allowed. Iranian IRBMs will reaach Israel. Fortunately for Israel they have nothing to put on them but small HE warheads. Is that the idea, to make sure they never do? This is a reasonable idea and that is the policy of the US and mine. You prefer the analysys of Israel to that of the USA. I look forward to your comments and that of the rest of the Ziocon/Israel government community, but only yours. You will make a wonderful foil. Look it up. pl

Mark Logan

rjj,

Now that you mention it, he is a politician and a horses ass. I tried to think like one for a moment, and it struck me (along with the nausea) that if the sanctions work he will be able to say that it was his tough-guyitude that did the trick.

He'd better hope he can.

Best wishes.

alinaustex

Mr Bama
You should get out more - the USA majority is war weary ,period.

alinaustex

Leo
In the context of Operation Cast Lead -where many ,many civilans were casaulities as where IDF members - do you really believe Iran can be occuppied sucessfully ? If and when the neocon/Likud gets it way and we are involved in an armed conflict with Iran we will be faced with just that--eitherccuppying Tehran - or nuking them . There will be no surgical strike on Natanz without a much wider and tragic conflict .

blowback

If you thought that Oren was bad, then Panetta is worse. You know how there was the "bomber gap", the "missile gap", etc., well now there is the "concrete gap". Panetta is complaining that Iranian concrete is too strong.

http://www.aggregateresearch.com/articles/24641/Government-officials-concerned-over-Iranian-made-smart-concrete-.aspx

I suspect the "message" here is that the west must be thorough in preventing the Iranians from acquiring any "dual use" materials even though the development and manufacture of this super-concrete seems to have been indigenous.

Charles I

ergo Go Obama Go, I'm scared not funny

The beaver

Optimax

March Break - nothing to do on campus

Morocco Bama

I get out plenty. I disagree. Polls are misleading and unreliable. Most people don't know, don't care, and don't want to know. For the few who are weary, that's nothing that another 9/11 Plus wouldn't cure immediately.

optimax

So Leo is an example of the abysmal state of our educational system.

The Beaver

May be or he is on a "scholarship" and he is moonlighting for Yvet

rjj

Morocco, war weary means

** discount all "Support Our Troops" paraphernalia and dump inventory ASAP;

** no longer works as lead-in, and move down to after second commercial on nightly news.

rjj

Leo in Berkeley is not the same as Leo at Berkeley.

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