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20 March 2012

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VietnamVet

Colonel,

F B Ali and jdledell’s comments ring true to me.

Israel is risking their existence on an air strike that won’t work. They don’t have sufficient aircraft or ordnance. Their safe return requires in-flight refueling over hostile territory. It is flat out crazy.

The sole possibility of successful air campaign is for Israel to draw America into the conflict. But, Americans are war weary. President Obama’s reelection depends on the appearance of peace. Only a false flag operation can draw us in. This is even crazier. The loss of the Enterprise would be Pearl Harbor all over again. The draft and total mobilization would be required to invade Iran. But, there is no guarantee that America today has will or means for this due to the political polarization and corruption of the last 30 years.

Revelation of Israeli complicity in loss of an aircraft carrier or failure to avenge its loss would in final nail in the coffin of the American Empire.

Russ

Hi Pat
I have no authoritative info 0n F-15 numbers but according to http://waronterrornews.typepad.com we had 522 F-15's in 2011. According to Wicki, the US foresees keeping them in the inventory until 2025.
Until recently, I had forgotten about Operation Wooden Leg in which the IAF struck PLO HQ in Tunis in 1985. Depending on the routes involved, this strike might have covered more distance than any attack on Iran would prove to be. However, the operating environment would have been more benign....
What little I know about ASW dates back to days at the Naval War College in the early 90's. It was generally believed that detecting hostile subs in the Gulf was difficult at least in part because of its shallow waters. The German manufactured Dolphin Class Israel was then expecting were well regarded.
Regards,
Russ

fanto

"as if by flipping a switch"... this sounds so similar to the good old USSR and "Communist Block" propaganda machine - I see with amazement the title of 'Political Editor' among the staff in the CNN and PBS... They are the true capitalist (not communist) party 'nomenclatura'
in many ways the american capitalism today and the old soviet system of yore are more and more like twins of the same egg...I wish the USA will awake sooner rather than later from this somnambulic state

fanto

In last few days there was an official visit of minister Barak in Berlin, to buy (or to speed delivery of) another submarine and to have the German Gov. say that they would stay on the side of Israel in case of any 'problems'. This visit was not very long in the news and the online papers did not cover it (at least I might have missed it). The maneuvering to lign up the "fellow travelers into misery" IMO.

J

Colonel,

Reading various Caucasus articles and conversing with others regarding the agreements between Baku and Tel Aviv, it amounts to conjecture and what I see as real possible scenarios.

Regarding Putin, the things that he has said in interviews and in the Russian press regarding attacks on Iran. Interviews in the Russian presses with Russian General Staff figures as to how they see as a very real precursor to both WWIII and a thermo-nuclear WWIII possibilities developing if the situation is not contained. Different Russian articles indicate the Russians ramping up their intel collections on possible Israeli strikes on Iran.

E L

“History is the autobiography of a madman.” —Alexander Herzen Enough said.

stanleyhenning


Below is a listing of nuclear nations so far. Does this mean we should get involved with an Israel attack on Iran just because Iran is trying to join the club. I don't think so.

Warheads active/total[nb 1]
Year of first test
CTBT status[3]
The five nuclear-weapon states under the NPT
 United States
1,950 / 8,500[4]
1945 ("Trinity")
Signatory
 Russia (former  Soviet Union)
2,430 / 11,000[4]
1949 ("RDS-1")
Ratifier
 United Kingdom
160 / 225[4]
1952 ("Hurricane")
Ratifier
 France
290 / 300[4]
1960 ("Gerboise Bleue")
Ratifier
 China
180 / 240[4]
1964 ("596")
Signatory
Non-NPT nuclear powers
 India
n.a. / 80–100[4]
1974 ("Smiling Buddha")
Non-signatory
 Pakistan
n.a. / 90–110[4]
1998 ("Chagai-I")
Non-signatory
 North Korea
n.a. / <10[4]
2006 (2006 test)
Non-signatory
Undeclared nuclear powers
 Israel
n.a. / 80–200[4][5]
possibly 1979 (See Vela Incident)
Signatory

mac n.

Notwithstanding arguments to the contrary, it seems incredibly obvious that all the huffing and puffing, from Qom and Tel Aviv and Washington is just that....although, it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong.

I am still trying to understand why Huyser was sent to Tehran.

Walrus

Diesel electric subs are notoriously hard to detect if competently handled. If our old subs could get the carrier (time after time), then you can bet an Israeli one could.

What would be safer for Israeli subs to do is to lay some mines for American ships to hit, then blame Iran. Some of the newer mines are essentially "canned torpedoes" - very nasty.

zanzibar

FB

I concur with your third scenario as most likely if Bibi and his cabinet are that insanely crazy. I can well imagine the manufactured media hysteria in the US. Chris Matthews and Sean Hannity and Starbucks Joe and Wolfie and all the "military analysts" will have non-stop orgasms. It won't be duct tape on sale but bunker meals and radioactive fallout survival gear at your local Walmart. Members of Congress will be vying to outdo each other on who can be more supportive of Israel and be even more outrageous in their statements. The authorization to use military force will be on Obama's desk before he even has a chance to blink his eye.

I don't believe there will be any ground invasion considering how weary front-line soldiers are after their recent repeated deployments. Instead I believe we will have shock and awe video game war to feed our 24x7 media inanity. Thousands of missile strikes followed by air strikes on targets with the usual euphemisms - command and control center, et al.

Of course it will all be incredibly tragic for both the American and Iranian people if it comes to pass. There are a few rays of hope however. Compared to the Iraq WMD threat media propaganda juggernaut there seems to be some push back by powerful entities right now. But can they be counted on to stand up and visibly counter the hysterical pronouncements of our members of Congress and leading presidential contenders after Bibi has got himself in a hole. My cynicism of our political culture prevents me from being sanguine.

confusedponderer
After Israel attack on Iran there only course of action will be a prolonged religious war; in my opinion.
I think it has the potential plunge the Middle East into convulsions akin to the 30 years war. If this happens the blood toll will be terrifying. Even the 'slow burn' war on Iraq, starting off with the first invasion of Iraq, the following sanctions regime and the second war and the subsequent occupation and civil war induced above a million 'excess deaths'. Add to that the diosplaced persons and the exodus of Christians from Iraq and you have a picture of epic misery.

Considering the Israeli inferiority in numbers they will be at a severe disadvantage if they foolishly decide to kick off something like that, and worse, they know it and try to offset that through aggressiveness and ruthlessness. Be that as it may, 30 years wars require staying power. Israel's staying power is currently provided only by their "Daddy Warbucks".

Also, the Israelis are apparently in dire need of a defeat that they cannot credibly spin into a success (like they spun the beating they received at the hand of Hezbollah in 2006 into victory) as, since 1973, they have almost exclusively been dealing out. Given their temperament and inclination they'd probably be content with beating up Gaza once more.

In a sense, them losing half their air force on a fools errant into Iran would almost be a desirable outcome as it finally would clip their wings, ironically self imposed. Such a grandiose debacle would also probably and deservedly cost Bibi the premiership.

Netanyahu sees Israel in a position of strength i.e. they are not fought out. To the contrary, they are actively eyeing wars of choice. As a result of their strength they think they are able to impose facts on the weaker parties, they don't feel they need to pursue peaceful solutions. Indeed, they are unattractive to them since they would require compromise on their part. 1967 borders would require them to return a lot of land. Since they play for keeps, especially as far as land is concerned, they don't want to compromise i.e. return any of that.

I visit the city of Münster a lot lately, one of the towns where the Westphalian order was negotiated. It eventually laid the foundation for the somewhat short lived pax universalis, and put an end to the carnage that had killed off a third of Germany's population at the time. May the Middle East be spared such a fate. It sure is in dire need of some stability. I do not see the Israeli brinkmanship contributing to that.

Will2

America, Israel and Iran ‘are now engaged in a three-way game of chicken’ in which ‘physical or political survival makes blinking more dangerous than confrontation’. But what if everyone blinks at the same time...?

Neil Richardson

Walrus:

"Diesel electric subs are notoriously hard to detect if competently handled. If our old subs could get the carrier (time after time), then you can bet an Israeli one could."

Back in 2006, a PLAN Song class diesel sub made that point to the Kitty Hawk battlegroup. Now it's generally assumed that the PLAN submariners aren't nearly as competent as those from the RAN who have gone through Perisher. I don't know much about the Israelis, but I suspect they know their business.

"What would be safer for Israeli subs to do is to lay some mines for American ships to hit, then blame Iran. Some of the newer mines are essentially "canned torpedoes" - very nasty."

That seems very plausible

Morocco Bama

"What would be safer for Israeli subs to do is to lay some mines for American ships to hit, then blame Iran. Some of the newer mines are essentially "canned torpedoes" - very nasty."

Which begs the question, if Israel is so inclined to do something like this, then why has it not done so yet? It can't be to wait for a potential presidential change....to say Romney. Last time I checked, Shrubya didn't attack Iran and in fact, Obama has had tougher language and rhetoric, so I don't buy that it's an automatic Romney would just swoop right in and define his budding presidency with a disastrous attack on Iran. It's for this reason I believe it's a now or never deal, and I believe it's going to be now...meaning very soon, say May or June.

confusedponderer

Canned Torpedoes leave a 'can' behind, i.e. if the sea bottom is searched the can may be found. Firing them from sub leaves less traces and avoids leaving behind 'trash'. Mines leave even less traces and are easier to use if harder to aim.

The Israelis could also, say, fire an adapted Russian torpedo. They probably have access to such weapons through their allies around the Caspian Sea.

João Carlos

If someone blink, that will happens

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRiWAxMMX5o&feature=related

Walrus

Agree with Morocco because France goes to the polls on 22 April and Hollande is not likely to be as pliable as Sarkozy, or at least that is what I've heard.

elkern

Mines are mindless, and seem more likely to bonk a tanker than a carrier presumably protected by smaller ships, no? But that might be good (/bad) enough to draw us in.

Thanks for the feedback on Subs, everybody... I guess. I was hoping for a different answer. But "getting the carrier" is less important than blaming any attack on Iran. Can a sub make it look like a different sub - or someone/something else - fired the shot (torp/missile)?

Assuming the USN would NOT go along with the whitewashing of a(nother) false flag attack, their ability to trace it back is very important. If we get stampeded into an attack on Iran, but then two months later the Navy issues a report showing that the trigger was falsified, Israel must understand that they're screwed.

American Jews must understand that a false flag attack runs the risk of exposing them to their worst fear - shoah. I am not advocating that, and I will resist that as strongly as I resist our slide towards attacking Iran. But demagogues happen. Do they think that the truth would be contained? Are they certain?

Pirate Laddie

BTW -- Andrew Sullivan, a fellow "whatever" of Goldberg at the Atlantic, reports that Jeffrey has gone on "hiatus," perhaps because he's accused too many defenders of Israel of "scape-goating" the Chosen Ones (or even of outright "anti-semitism"), perhaps to savor the first Spring breezes off the Cape, perhaps because he's been called up by his Israeli division, or maybe he just wants to get away from the potential blast zone, once the games commence.

Medicine Man

The extended argument between Goldberg and Sullivan has been interesting. A lot of the things Jeffery has accused Andrew Sullivan of are quite false (anti-semitism, etc) and I'm pretty sure Mr. Goldberg knows it. If nothing else, it shows that the ends justify the means for Jeffery.

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