Abu-Ismail - Egypt's Future?

"After announcing his intention to run for the presidency in May of last year, Abu-Ismail has provided fleeting insights into his economic programme.

As president, he says, he would seek to raise Egypt’s gross domestic product (GDP) by focusing on agriculture, with a view to decreasing Egypt’s economic dependence on tourism and Suez Canal revenues – both of which are at the mercy of unpredictable international conditions.

To assuage fears that an Islamist ruler would impose Islamic Sharia Law and draconian measures that would cripple tourism – an industry that employs some three million Egyptians and generates billions of dollars annually – Abu-Ismail has vowed to merely "streamline" the sector.

Some of his public statements, however, suggest that he might not be adverse to legislation that could negatively impact the local tourism industry, such as banning alcohol, imposing dress codes and segregating the sexes.

Abu-Ismail also argues that interest-based banking systems have led to soaring inflation rates in Egypt, stressing that an Islamic banking system – which shuns the use of interest – would lead to economic prosperity."  Ahram online

--------------------------------------

I said earleir that I thought Amre Moussa is the candidate for president most likely to be tolerated by the generals.  That remains true but this fellow is likely to have the support of the masses.   He would probably try to do all the things mentioned above and the generals would watch that for a while until he began to threaten their money and power.   pl

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/7/37790/Egypt/Presidential-elections-/A-brief-look-at-Salafist-posterchild-Hazem-AbuIsma.aspx

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/7/38104/Egypt/Presidential-elections-/Escorted-by-parades,-Abu-Ismail-registers-presiden.aspx

 

Comments

[FB Ali]

Now that the Brotherhood has nominated its deputy leader, Khairat al-Shatir, to run for the post of President, Abu Ismail does not stand much of a chance. Nor, probably, does anyone else.

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

Probably right on thr MB fellow having an edge, but there is something in the Egyptian character that will harken to the Salafists. They are pretty much all nuts. In the end the generals will have to act to save themselves. They will then lose US aid but the Saudis will make it up or at least they say they will. pl

[Lars]

One thing history has taught us is that differences in the Middle East are seldom settled peacefully. I have no idea how that can be contained, if it even can be.

I think Islam needs their Martin Luther but without the 30 Year War.

[Walrus]

While I cannot comment on Sharia law, I think a lot more will be heard about Islamic banking, it has a lot to offer the West in many ways that might even attract Christian Conservative support, although I have to say in passing that the principles of Sharia banking would appear to be anathema to what passes for the Jewish religion these days.

Put briefly, it requires a lender to take into account the moral dimension of the purpose of a loan. For example, my partner has a car loan from an Australian Islamic Bank (best rates) - they inquired into the purpose of the use of the car. She is a teacher and needs to get to school, so that is OK. If she was buying a brewery truck, not so good.

I think you would find large loans and lines of credit intended for leveraged speculation in the stock or commodities markets would be problematic for Islamic banking - and that might be a good thing.

As for the prohibition on interest and usury, Sharia banking neatly circumvents the problem by observing that it is quite moral for a lender to take a share of the profits from the activity financed by the loan - which dovetails rather neatly with the aforementioned required discussion of the loans purpose.

I suggest that you will hear more about this in the years to come. It is not bad news unless you are a Wall Street Hedge fund operator.

Much more here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_banking

[alinaustex]

Col Lang
Is it possible to keep the economy in Eygpt on a sound footing without Western tourism & would not this not mitigate against the worst Salafist ruling tendecies?

[turcopolier]

alinaustex

Without robust tourism from abroad there is not a lot of Egyptian economy. People are quite xapable of acting against their best economic interests. Keep in mind ehat happened in Iran after the revolution when what was essentially a Shia Salafist state was formed. pl

[jr786]

@ Lars:

"I think Islam needs their Martin Luther but without the 30 Year War."

Islam doesn't need anything. What the Egyptians need is something approaching an honest government, one that doesn't holiday in Sharm al Sheikh while children get cholera in the back alleys of Cairo.

Islam doesn't need anything, Egyptians, and Muslims, do.

[turcopolier]

jr786

Sunni Islam has had many Luther like figures. All of them have been suppressed by status quo (literally)forces that interpret all change as unholy. pl

[steve g]

Call me naive but wouldn't this
lead to complete chaos and bribery
if imposed on the current Western
system? Without set rules under
all conditions whose morality
sets the template for these transactions?

[turcopolier]

steveG

What "current Western system" are you referring to? If you think that Egypt has ever been more than a minimally westernised society you are mistaken. pl

[steve g]

I assumed Walrus was refering to
Sharia banking imposed on Western
countries as an alternative not on
Egypt. Maybe I mistread his piece.

[deray]

"As president, he says, he would seek to raise Egypt’s gross domestic product (GDP) by focusing on agriculture, with a view to decreasing Egypt’s economic dependence on tourism and Suez Canal revenues – both of which are at the mercy of unpredictable international conditions."

Agriculture needs water. Without rainfall, it boils down to more Nile Irrigation, or better (more efficient) use of current Nile water consumption. Egypt is facing challenges in its dominance over usage of Nile.

Although I understand that there are huge aquifers beneath the desert that have yet to be tapped.

Water wars with religious certitude is not a good mix.

[Babak Makkinejad]

No, a Shia fantasy state.

[turcopolier]

Babak

All right, A Shia Salafist fantasy state. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

No.

That is not accurate for "Salafi State" is your phrase.

Salafis just do not talk like that.

It is also inaccurate since it does not take into account of the vast conceptual gulf between Shia and Sunni thought and practice.

Salafist and indeed all Sunnis are devoid of the Doctrine of Ijtihad.

They are also devoid of the rationalism of Usuli (Principlist) School of Shia Jurisprudence - in contradistinction to the Akhbari (Transmissive)school.

Lastly, Salafist and Sunnis cannot take advnatage of the significant innovation of the Ayatollah Khomeini introduced "the expediency of the Islamic Order suprsedes Islamic Law".

That was later codified and formalized into the Expediency Council and is slowly working its way through Islamic Law and its conflicts with Legislation enacted by the Majlis.

None of these obtain in any other Muslim polity and because of their absence, there will never be any lasting improvements in governance or in public sphere in Sunni Muslim states.

The principles of Islam must be amalgamated with representative government. As long as this is not done, Muslim polities remain what they are.

This is a historic task and cannot be completed in a few short decades.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, and the differences among the Christians in Europe has been amicably settled over the centuries?

Say it at Verdun.

[turcopolier]

Babak

In re Salafism and the Shia, I would certainly agree that the the pre-requisites for modernism and constructive bida' are much better embedded in 12er Shiism than in Sunni Islam. After all, continuing "prophecy" through ijtihad remains alive in Shiism. I particularly agree that Khomeini, the philosopher, taught concepts that should lead to an Islam suited to modern life, but so far I have not seen the results produced by the expediency council of which you speak. what I see, instead, is the Iran of Ahmadinajad, the IRGC and the baseej. pl

[Matthew]

No, steve g, it would not lead to chaos and bribery, it would, however, lead to fewer asset bubbles. America has a mature economy. If the financial markets were truly "efficient" then the aggregate return on equities would roughly mirror the real growth rate of GDP (say 2-4% per year.) It does not.

Our financial system is now a constant bubble-creating machine. Islamic banking might make that harder. I can't imagine reconcilling synthetic CDO's with Islamic banking. But if the payoff is big enough, I'm someone else will.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Very many Iranians expected almost Paradise-on-Earth once the Islamic Government had been inaugurated and the Holy Sharia implemented. Some were wondering what to do with existing prisons since in this new Utopia crime and sin would vanish.

The idea was that Islam had not had a chance to be thoroughly running society - except under the first 4 Khalifs. But now (in 1980) it had that chance.

There is, however, a think called Reality that rudely collides with people's prejudices, desires, and perceptions. Reality breaks those things - a multi-decade long process.

I think you are mistaken about Mr. Ahmadinejad; he was the one person who was willing to work with the United States and repeatedly telegraphed that publicly.

But he was toxic in the United States and in EU since he questioned the foundations of the Cult of Shoah.

[tunde]

Col,
Re the entrenched interests of the Egyptian armed forces, would/could we see a confrontation betwixt the forces of democratic populism and the military as they attempt to erode the power of the military, similarly to what the AK party in Turkey has done with their Turkish armed forces or do you predict a more openly confrontational clash in Egypt between the politicos and the military ? I hope that makes sense ?

[turcopolier]

tunde

The generals have the Turkish example in mind and IMO will not go quietly. To describe the MB and the Salafists as "politicos" is amusing. pl

[steve g]

Col. Lang
Today's CNN online World section
has a piece on the MB "Charm Offensive"
in the States. The face of it is,
of course, young women schooled in
Western ways. Mentions McCain and
Lindsay after their current trip to
Egypt being surprised by the meetings
they had. Propaganda offensive?