The Egyptian officers and the NGOs

"The Egyptian investigation into the work of the non-profit groups is closely linked to the political turmoil that has engulfed the nation since the ouster a year ago of President Hosni Mubarak, a US ally who ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years.

Protesters demand that the ruling military council speed up transfer of power to civilians saying that they are an extension of the old regime and that they have mismanaged the country's transitional period. The military took power after Mubarak resigned a year ago. It says it will hand over control after a new president is elected in June.

The military rulers tried to deflect criticism by claiming "foreign hands" are behind protests against their rule, frequently depict the protesters as receiving funds from abroad in a plot to destabilise the country."  Telegraph

--------------------------------------------

Egypt again.  Someone asked what this is about.  The revolution was a farce.  That is what this is about.  Mubarak and his family were removed and will suffer the vengeance of the mob expressed through the courts.  That changes nothing.  The national economic product is still too small for the size of the population but that is only the largest part of the problem.  The Egyptian population is, in the majority, Islamist.  That means that they favor the establishment of an Islamic republic in which shariah law predominates in life.  That was clearly indicated in the parliamentary election to anyone who is not fixated on the idea that social  "progress" in the Western sense is inevitable and that the Egyptian masses are waiting to be liberated frm Islam.  The Egyptian military officer class knows this .  It is a semi-westernised cleptocracy which means to maneuver its way to continuing power of the kind that it has exercised since it overthrew the monarchy in 1952.  This is an exceedingly "racy course," since the political Islamists and the liberalised minority seek power themselves.  The military reckons that it does not need the interference of foreign governments and other groups  while it is attempting to save itself and its power.  These NGO groups (including the semi-official American ones) are trying to "level" the electoral playing field in such a way that the path of the Islamists to power is cleared to the goal line. They are not doing this deliberately.  It is an unintended consequence of  the NGOs (and their sponsors') simple minded and naive belief in the universal beneficent effect of fair elections.  This is a wrong idea.  The truth is that free electons are a good idea (like free trade) when an outcome favorable to one's own side is produced.  The Egyptian officer corps is ham-handed, and crude but it knows that its interest does not lie in an Islamist dominated government.  It intends to prevent that occurrence over the long haul and it does not want these NGOs to interfere with its efforts.  They feel that strongly enough to risk losing the American money.  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/9064493/Egypt-names-American-NGO-workers-facing-trial.html

Comments

[citizen]

This unrest is about young men wanting to start families and not being able to afford to. This is a classic demographic expansion driven rebellion. Westerners have fetishized democracy and the atomized individual, free to engage in whatever lifestyle they choose. This clouds our understanding of others and ourselves.

[B. D. Warbucks]

pl,

A pithy and precise explanation of the evolving situation.

I am surprised, though, that the officer corps is willing to forgo the DoD/State Gravy Train. Are their defense industries and patronage networks able to withstand the coming drought?

Is there any other actor interested in replacing Uncle Sugar's largesse?

[William R. Cumming]

What would it take for an outside power to knock off the Egyptian military from their dictatorship? The reason I ask is that for many reasons short of an oil strike in Egypt I don't see that society changing for the next century with its past as prologue.

Many who have read my comments know that I believe an Iraq will arise this decade authoritarian and revanchist in its outlooks for those that stood by while the USA invaded or helped the Americans. Was it Egypt and Syria that once tried to become a single political unit?

[Thomas]

Yes the United Aran Republic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Arab_Republic

[turcopolier]

WRC

"What would it take for an outside power to knock off the Egyptian military from their dictatorship?"

It would be a huge undertaking that, given the nature of Egypt, would lead to a vast chaos. pl

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

What you say about the Egyptian military is undoubtedly true of its upper echelons. I wonder, though, how far it applies to the middle and lower ranks of the officer corps. Many of them may well be affected by the current ideas and ideologies bubbling up among the people (both Islamist and liberal). It is also likely that the rank and file would share the views of the common man, and thus be sympathetic to the Islamist cause.

All this would indicate that the course that Tantawi and his fellow generals are pursuing may not be an easy one, with no assurance of success.

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

It is certainly true that the interests of those three grops are different. That is true to some extent in most armies. If the generals' clique loses control the situation will truly become revolutionary. as you can imagine that is how I would attack the problem if I had that kind of mischief in mind in Egypt. pl