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22 February 2012

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Morocco Bama

No mention of a nuclear missile strike by Israel? Think they wouldn't do it? They'll want to inflict as much damage as possible as early as possible before external world pressure is condemnation is applied. I believe they will use nukes to accomplish this. I believe they are that insane. The question is then, what would the U.S., and the rest of the world do, if Israel nuked Iran? That makes for some interesting conjecture.

Charles I

My very first comment here way back in 2005 was about the presence of Israeli trainers in the Kurdish zone.

But that was a while ago when Turkish/Israeli relations were not as they are now.

Can anyone opine on Turkish reaction to Israeli use of Kurdistan to attack Iran, not that I think that prospect would stop an attack?

Charles I

I think it would be the end of Israel. Anyone who could that wasn't batshit crazy would want to emigrate asap.

After the proverbial 200,000 missiles would be launched from Lebanon.

People with skin in the game would simply dedicate themselves anew to the then demonstrably necessary reduction of Israel to non-existential capacity. Technology, human nature and demographics would do the rest in time.

C Y L

Pat etal...

How would a strike against Iran fragment their society?
Lets say an unconventional attack took out the regimes communication network, C&C points & social order but left the nuclear infrastructure in place. Creating social upheaval without invasion due to anarchy. Say a revised Stuxnex which attacks telephone network, drones with jamming equipment, (gps jamming, electro magnetic thrust, all the scifi stuff thats becoming real like the drones)

Does the Iranian society have a strong enough sense of self?

What is known of the Iranian state composition beyond the obvious Green movement - Mullahs - AhmediNejad divides.
Do the Pakistan/ afghanistan border regions have a suppressed allegiance to Tribe/clan/subsect of religion that will jump on the opportunity to peel away from Teheran?

We saw:
Iraq split immediately into Kurd/Sunni/Shiite lines with bit players fragmenting off or exiting completely e.g. March Arabs, Christians. The kurds have a semi state within Iraq.

Lebanon fragmented into fiefdoms after its civil war. These religious fiefdoms currently strive to co-exist after all else has failed.

Syria is fragmenting as the different oppressed identities resurface. These identities were repressed to create the cohesion of the Syrian state entity.

Afghanistan - total disarray, maintains it's international borders due to it's neighbours lack of interest in taking the 'badlands' territory and dealing with the tribal anarchy.

So what might surface in Iran if anarchy were to be induced

Thomas

"straight into Kurdistan. They will refuel at one of several airbases then launch straight into Iran"

Grandmaster Pars launches suprise missile attack as the last planes land, alerts airdefence units and says to the international community "check".

J

Colonel,

Israel has signed a strategic pact with Baku (Azerbaijan),and now have their staging area since their previous one (Turkey) is now in the toilet thanks to Mossad's constant meddling in Turkey's internal affairs. By the Turks telling the Israelis to take a hike, Turkey stands to gain from it in the future.


Baku in exchange for letting their territory be used as a new Israeli beachhead against Iran, is receiving in exchange, arms and investments. IMO Baku is shooting themselves in the foot with their trading/alliance with the Israelis, because at some future point they will find themselves stabbed in the back just like every other dance partner that Israel has had, (including U.S.).

It would be in the best interests for all concerned, if the Russians exerted their influence with the Azerbaijanis to nix cold the new Israel-Azerbaijan strategic pact, before it screws the pooch of all concerned parties.

Walrus

I don't think anyone in the Caucasus is stupid enough to allow Israel access to their airfields. The Russians would issue an ultimatum and invade or bomb within hours once Israeli aircraft were discovered.

Getting to the Caucasus would have to involve a circuitious route avoiding Turkish airspace and probably skirting Syria as well.

J

Walrus,

Hate to bust your bubble, but Baku appears to be that stupid (and greedy for Israeli supplied arms/investments), and are throwing common-sense out the window.

attack on Iran

I read a piece in the NY Times recently on this subject. It is estimated that at least 100 Israeli planes would be needed, maybe more. Realistically, the most the Israelis could do would be to set back the program a couple of years. There was an article in the post today on Israelis feeling resigned to an attack on Iran: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israelis-seem-resigned-to-a-strike-on-iran/2012/02/20/gIQApwamSR_story.html. It just seems a no-win for them either way.

walrus

Baku better beware brother Bear.

J

Walrus,

You got that right, especially since Putin is favored to win the first round upcoming Russian elections. Once Putin gets his government secured, the Israeli mad hatters had better watch their arses, and those associated mad hatters who like Baku are apparently hanging their hat on the same Israeli hat rack. Putin has said in no minced terms that it is NOT nice to invade/attack/thump or bother Iran. Bibi is wetting his drawers about now with that foreboding knowledge that Putin's foot is about to go through the Russian elections door. Putin has his head squarely on his shoulders, unlike Bibi. Putin puts Russia and Russian interests 'first' ahead of all others. The errant wonks at NATO had better watch their steps, Russia is in the process of enlarging their military might both in weapons and manpower. Putin like I said is putting Russia's security and Russian interests 'first'. Our D.C. could take a lesson from Putin in this regarding regarding putting our U.S. interests 'first' and foremost ahead of D.C.'s errant let's put Israel first polices.

rjj

@J: WRT Putin riding to the rescue: How would it be in Russia's interest to interfere with an adversary's self destruction?

J

rjj,

WWIII, which is what an attack on Iran would most likely bring into being, is NOT in Russia's nor the world's best interests. Russia every May celebrates theirs (and our U.S.) victory over the mad hatter German Nazi war hatters and their war machine. Putin, nor any Russian wants to have to celebrate 'another' Victory Day. WWII's Victory Day was as they figure too a high a price. That is why that Russia makes sure that their nation and their nation's young 'never forget' the high price and high national sacrifice (in the millions of Russian lives) that was paid for that WWII 'День Победы'.

IMO we the U.S. could sure use a Putin type individual, one who puts U.S. interests first. NATO is a monster that is constantly goading the Russian bear where no goading is warranted. And UN-thankfully due to NATOs incessant unnecessary goading(s), the Russian bear is starting to feed to regain its strength from its long winter hibernation (since the collapse of the Soviet Union structure). A leaner and meaner Russian Bear (with a capital B) is in the offing, and we'll have the bone-heads at NATO, Tel Aviv, AND our D.C. to thanks for it.

We don't need another World War, which is what will be the probable ancillary result of Israel attacking Iran.

Oh, and......I have not even mentioned the Chinese Dragon that's quietly been in the backdrop observing and reading Sun Wu's dictums.

Morocco Bama

Exactly, rjj. Russia and China aren't going to do jack. They'll wait, survey the situation and determine a way to capitalize on it without direct confrontation.

j, everyone knows that WWIII would be the real war to end all wars, and therefore would never "go there." There would be no victors....just a handful of knuckle-dragging cave dwellers spending their time scrounging for cockroaches and scribbling on the walls.

J

Morocco Bama,

Yours is wishful thinking, that sane and rational would prevail. However in our real-world, there were those of the same mindset as you that never believed that WWI nor WWII would be in their lifetimes, until it was on them like stink on a manure pile.

Baku allowing itself to be prostituted by Tel Aviv for an Iran strike, could be the precipice that causes our world to go to the brink and fall off into the chasm of WWIII. Even the head of the Russian Duma has notice it, and has remarked regarding it. Here is the latest regarding Baku's arms deal with Tel Aviv
http://www.newsday.com/business/israel-inks-1-6-billion-arms-deal-with-azerbaijan-1.3558327

Now back to the leading to the precipice of WWIII, with Baku acting as a Tel Aviv prostitute. Animosities and distrust run deep in the Caucuses between various parties. Parties would and have in the past taken advantage of situations to up the situation over their perceived rivals. Azerbaijan doesn't like Armenia, and wants to take Karabakh. The 'domino effect' as noted by the Russian Duma head Vladimir Zhirinovski regarding Baku precipitating WWIII could become a real problem. Azerbaijan would take advantage of the situation, and try to recapture Karabakh. Armenia would counteract. Turkey would support Azerbaijan. The CSTO would support Armenia, and things could escalate real quick drawing in several parties who have security and support treaties with both sides of the waring parties.

Like I said earlier, it would be in the interests of all concerned if the Russians exerted their influence with Baku while it was still time, before the situation dominoes.

Israel striking Iran is not in the interests of even the Israelis, if they ever pulled their heads out of the backsides long enough to realize it.

Remember the 'small things' that caused the WWII domino effect? People didn't believe it would happen until it was too late. By then the oh sh-t factor kicked in, but it was too little too late.

rjj

@J. V. naive questions:

What about animosity toward Russia and Russians. Does Russia have the influence/leverage? Why would the New Friends of Israel in Baku oblige the Russians; what would they gain/lose if they did?

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