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12 January 2012

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turcopolier

NMS

"On 4 August 2011, Joint Forces Command cased its flag colors[8] and officially disestablished on 31 August 2011." Wiki

Basilisk

Pirouz,
That is an interesting assertion. What do you mean, exactly?

Norbert Salamon

Dr. Silverman:

The probability that the Earth will run out of oil is NIL, the problem is what is recoverable with present technology and at what cost of energy.

The present problem is that with a few exceptions [Iraq possibly, Iran probably if no Sanctions, USA marginally, Canada marginally but at great energy cost, Venezuela as Canada re Orinoco Basin, Angola etc.] most EXPORTING COUNTRIES have peaked oil production and are in decline {UK, Norway, indonesia, et.

It is true that only a small percentage of the embedded resource can be produced [varying between 2-3% in tight shale to usual 25-30% in most fields without tertery treatment -- which is very energy intensive] and it is also true that fracking etc can speed up the rate of recovery, however the faster you bleed a field the faster water incursion increases -esp in Gulf of MExico - which creates other problems.

Evenif China/India do not grow their demand in the next 3 years as they did in the past 5, the production shortfall will be somewhat smaller than the United Command posited, but it will be ther -- IF AND ONLY IF THE PRICE DOES NOT PEAK a la 2008- causing renewed recession/depression in developed countries, drop in prioce, drop in exploration and development, the slow growth to a lower l3evel, then the cycle begins again.

From past analysis, it appears that China can operte on oil price in esxcess of $120, a certain death knell for OECD countries

Norbert Salamon

Possibly because thay came out with unpallative report as far as the political class and their suppporte3rs the 1% is concerned.

The beaver

Colonel

It is called "the Grand Bargain" and the Swiss Ambassador was the messenger. The Financial Times wrote about it but I can't seem to locate it but the Economist has another article:
http://www.economist.com/node/10015871
and then you can read the 'proposal" from this site http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/showdown/themes/grandbargain.html

a strange document in the first paragraph

turcopolier

pirouz

I remember the discussion on that subject but have not thought that it got to the point of the Iranians actually proposing something. pl

turcopolier

NMS

NO. JFCOM was just generally ignored except as an admirable source of contract money for papers like this and endless rumination over the endless subdivision of the mental provcess of "original" thought. It was disestablished becasue it was useless and cost a lot. pl

Medicine Man

TTG,

That was my assumption -- More about Mother Necessity than Mother Earth. Nevertheless, from the standpoint of a concerned citizen it is still encouraging. If history is any guide, technological breakthroughs in the military will inevitably be followed by commercial adaptations a few years down the road. In fact, I think the internet we're talking on now was originally a DoD project.

I have to ask though -- how the heck does a rifle require batteries? A computerized scope? Floodlights on the barrel? What kinds of bells and whistles turn a rifle into a power-tool?

JustPlainDave

In 2003, the Iranians passed to the US - through the auspices of the Swiss - a communiqué which is commonly interpreted as a roadmap for the resolution of outstanding issues between the US and Iran. I don't have the text of the communiqué handy as I am at the office, but IIRC two slightly different variants are available as appendices in both Barbara Slavin's Bosom Enemies and Trita Parsi's Treacherous Alliance.

Basilisk

Thanks, JPD,
I will do some remedial reading.

Norbert Salamon

Relating to matters of IRan, USa and Israel it is interestin got note:

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-threatened-iran-military-action-153640749.html

Richard Steven Hack

Yes, the 2003 Iranian offer of a "Grand Bargain" is well known to people who have watched this conflict for some time.

The Iranians offered to discuss the whole range of issues: the nuclear program, support for Hizballah, cooperating on eliminating Al Qaeda, normalization of relations with the U.S., etc. Exactly the sort of "Grand Bargain" everyone hoped Obama would attempt in the early days of his administration (everyone who didn't see Obama as a liar from the start, that is, as I did.)

The offer was completely ignored by the Bush Administration and the Swiss were told to butt out.

Farooq

Comments? Any truth to this?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag
False Flag
A series of CIA memos describes how Israeli Mossad agents posed as American spies to recruit members of the terrorist organization Jundallah to fight their covert war against Iran.

BY MARK PERRY

JoeC

NMS -

I agree there is no shortage of oil and that recovery economics are the key constraint. In addition to the recent development of economic sale oil recovery practices, it has become clear that significant additional oil recovery from depleted oil fields is possible using carbon dioxide based enhanced oil recovery (EOR). EOR has developed and ben practiced primarily in the US and largely by small companies. The engineering skills required are quite different than those of conventional oil development. Recent SEC filings indicated that several US companies are now recovering oil economically from residual oil zones (ROZ) - which apparently hold vast amounts of oil whose volumes have never been assessed as the oil, they contain was considered unrecoverable. For those interested, two recent DOE studies at:

http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/NextGen_CO2_EOR_06142011.pdf

and http://www.netl.doe.gov/KMD/cds/disk44/D-CO2%20Injection/Advanced%20Resources%20International/ROZ%20Williston%20Document.pdf

provide a preliminary assessment of potential to significantly expand US oil production using advanced EOR and an overview of ROZ. I have not seen any global estimates of CO2-based EOR/ROZ oil recovery, but the amounts are probably vast. China's state owned oil companies have recently realized how significant EOR and ROZ and are actively exploring how to develop EOR capability. To do EOR requires CO2, which to date in the US has largely been produced from natural geologic deposits (we have a big CO2 pipeline network to distribute this CO2 to EOR projects). natural CO2 availability in the US is declining and a preliminary assessment in China suggests that there is little or no natural CO to extract. Current thinking in China is that the CO2 they will need EOR will have to come from capture from coal plant flue gas and as can be noted form the DOE advanced EOR report, it is expected that this will be necessary in the relatively near term in the US. The CO2 injected for EOR is eventually permanently sequestered in the EOR field.

Basilisk

Fascinating. I now recognize my tunnel vision at the time. I thought what I knew about in a far more rarefied venue was the only initiative.

I find the comments of Richard Armitage in the second reference most interesting. He says the period just after the Bam earthquake would have been an opportune time for the Iranians. That was 12/26/2003, I wonder if we had summarily dismissed an attempt at rapprochement before that event would the Iranians still believe there was hope?

As to John Bolton, I will not even dignify his assertion with a comment.

The Twisted Genius

Medicine Man,

Part of my claim that even the rifles require batteries is just my crankiness as seeing what the young whippersnappers carry into combat. The standard issue optical sight for the M4 carbine does not require batteries, as I have recently learned. The red dot sights used by a few of the black ops "shooters" I know do use lithium batteries. Some of the weapons used by these "johnny high speeds" do resemble power tools. A lot of other items require batteries. They use fire direction computers for mortars, we used number 2 pencils back in my day. GPS systems have replaced the map and compass. A digital encryption device has replaced the leg key, "sergeant major's wheel" and spring loaded bursting device I used back in SF for communication. NOW GET OFF OF MY LAWN, YOU PUNKS!

Basilisk

TTG,
Aren't you too young to have a full-scale geezer attack?

The Twisted Genius

Yes, Basilisk, I am too young for this sort of thing, but I do enjoy older tech. Give me a wooden boat with oars and sails over a Sea Doo personal watercraft any day. I like edged weapons ('m a saber fencer) and older firearms. But I also like PL's SU-22. It's a sweet little thing and I sense the soul of a PPSH under the polymer. I can hardly wait to see the G-22 in action.

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