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12 January 2012

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Matthew

I wonder how many scientists will be murdered on Iran's streets before they retaliate? And against whom?

Norbert Salamon

I am wondering:

"every Zionist in the world and all the contemptible flacks in th[e] MSM are doing everythinhg they can to drag the US into war with Iran"

Have ever heard or read the US United Command's analysis of hydrocarban availability in 2015 [3 years from now] indicating a shortfall of 10Million barrals per day; or if they heard or read the similar study by the German military?

Without doubt, these prpagandist did not consider that if IRan oil infrastructure is damaged, they will be walking with their cars, trains etc trnsforming themselves into useless junk well before 2015.
Cheers!

turcopolier

NS

I suppose you mean US Central Command? If so, I have not. Send it to me. pl

walter

Why is Iran seen as a threat to the USA? Wouldnt facilitating peace in the Middle East be a better way of making USA safe than ratcheting up conflict and taking sides with Israel all the time?

Medicine Man

It is interesting how the US military is pursuing green technology with a zeal not matched by the private sector. Wouldn't be the first time the DoD has come up with the next generation's wonder tech.

turcopolier

walter

yes. pl

The Twisted Genius

Medicine Man,

The US military is pursuing green technology out of logistical necessity, not out of a new found desire to save mother earth. Our military consumes energy at a voracious rate which is an exploitable weakness as well as a budgetary black hole. Even the rifles require batteries! Hopefully this research will lead to technological breakthroughs.

The Beaver

US Joint Forces Command's Joint Operating Environment 2010
http://www.peakoil.net/files/JOE2010.pdf

refer to page 29

Jose

Colonel, it JFCom:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52334

http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/us-military-warns-oil-output-may-dip-causing-massive-shortages-by-2015

German report information:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9uF_qaGS5I&feature=related

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6912

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1655110/pg1

Jose

TTG - Google number of oil futures versus actual oil on American soil, when that collapses hope there is something in the pipeline...lol

Adam L Silverman

Mr. Salomon,

I wouldn't take the JFCOM report as gospel. As it's then commander, General Mattis, indicates in his forward it is, by its nature, speculative. While the two energy charts are sourced to OECD and/or the International Energy Agency, there is no other sourcing for any of the data (which are really assertions), which means there is no dating of the source material either. In the almost three years since this was produced China's economy, as well as that of the other BRICs, has slowed down (dating to, at least, middle 2011), which coupled with the rest of the global economic slow down throws all of this off. That's the real problem with these speculative forecasts. And I've been doing work related to several, of not most of the substantive topics in this report for the past five years and have yet to see anyone reference this thing or any of it'd predecessors. I know peak oil is a huge concern of yours, and there's no doubt we'll eventually run out, but don't stake too much on this. And remember the whole concept was created by Royal Dutch Shell in the 1950s as a marketing scheme to shift both public and private funds towards their then recently acquired uranium interests so they could profit off of the nuclear industry.

Russ

Hi Pat
Crumbling infrastructure and a sign of the times. A bit off topic and perhaps uniquely Rhode Island but we and several of our friends here are doing something we never imagined doing 10 years ago - installing generators. The local power company is foreign owned and for sale. Friends with the company say layoffs and cost cutting measures are delaying maintenance and tree trimming. And these guys have already got their generators. A serious storm such as those nearby states have recently experienced could leave us without power for a week or more. Many of the generators run on propane or natural gas so disruption of the world's oil supply is not a motivation. But purchase and installation are not cheap and something one doesn't do lightly in this economy.
Regards,
Russ

Pirouz

Beggin; your pardon, Colonel, but the Iranians did attempt to surrender to the U.S. in 2003 (through a fax transmitted through the Swiss embassy, but they were ignored! What's left to do? but pursue their own national interests, regardless.

optimax

I remember hearing 25% of US oil consumed is consumed by the military.

optimax

I don't remember where I heard the 25% figure but this link to comments at Oil Drum, and other sites, shows it is impossible to know the true number of barrels used by the military due mto accounting unknowns unkown for known reasons of natural security that is being sold to the highest briber.

Estimates are the military uses 1 to 1.8 % of total US energy (all forms) consumption.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/23/183954/741

E L

Enoch Powell once said: “History is littered with wars which everyone knew would never happen.”

William R. Cumming

How does fuel get to the US forces and NATO forces in Afghanistan right now?

Also NTI [Sam Nunn's org} has issued a report that ranks USA 11th on nuclear surety and safeguards of the 34 nations with access to special nuclear materials.

turcopolier

EL

Are you under the impression that I said there would not be a war? pl

turcopolier

pirouz

"did attempt to surrender to the U.S. in 2003" Surrender what? We were not at war. pl

confusedponderer

Here's the link to the German study

Adam L Silverman

Pirouz,

What you are referring to is the widely reported on Iranian diplomatic offering to the US in 2003. Basically immediately after 9-11 the Iranians offered to talk and provide aid against al Qaeda (which they view as a problem given its anti-Shia attitude rooted in OBL's extreme understanding of Wahabiya). After the US invaded Iraq and began Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Iranians, working through the only diplomatic channel between the US and Iran - the Swiss. This was documented in many places, but especially by Flynt Leverret, who was a senior director on the National Security Staff for the Middle East in 2002 and 2003, in a NY Times op-ed. The Bush (43) Administration, specifically Secretary Rice, indicated she had no recollection of such a diplomatic overture, however, the fax containing it was leaked and published in Newsweek, the Washington Post, and at TPM Muckraker.

There are a couple of important issues here. The first is that this came to light because a Congressional staffer, Trita Parsi, who worked for Congressman Ney (of Abramoff infamy) made sure the story got out and so did Flynt Leverett and you'll see both of them referenced in several of the links below. This is significant is that the allegations are that the Iranian offer went right to the Bush (43) Administration's Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Karl Rove. Secretary Rice gave contradictory responses indicating that she did know of it and then later that she had never seen it and attacking Leverett's claims. So what's the significance: 1) another very solid demonstration that the policy making process, especially the interagency process for foreign policy decision making in the Bush (43) Administration was somewhere between seriously damaged and broken, and definitely placed in thrall of the professional politics and campaigning side of the house. And remember it was Secretary Rice's job to preserve that process and make sure it worked when she was the National Security Advisor (there is great reporting in a lot of places about how she allowed this structure and system to be destroyed by getting run over by Secretary Rumsfeld and Vice President Cheney). 2) While there is no guarantee that the Iranians were sincere, would have actually done what they offered, etc, all of those caveats kept in mind, this is another glaring example of the Bush (43) Administration's strategic malpractice by failing to follow this up and at least call the Iranian's diplomatic bluff. If the offer was even remotely legit, turn the sand table around and look at the map from the Iranian point of view: we are surrounded now, between bases and actual combat forces, by the Americans on either side, with two nuclear armed neighbors (both allies or cooperating with the Americans), a regional rival to the NW in Turkey, another regional rival farther to the West in Israel, a petro-economy rival to the SW in Saudi Arabia, and our offer to cooperate, in exchange for not being isolated anymore has just been rebuffed. What options do we have left? And we wonder why some Iranians want to pursue nuclear weapons for deterrence purposes...

I've pulled a bunch of links that provide information on this and they can be found below, with the TPM Muckraker link that actually has a jpg of the fax first followed by a WaPo article on the subject and a WaPo link to the entire fax. Please note that such diverse groups as the Cato Institute (page 524), the Council on Foreign Relations, and the US Institute of Peace all state that this overture occurred.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/002528.php
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/13/AR2007021301363.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/documents/us_iran_1roadmap.pdf
http://mediamatters.org/research/200605020009
http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb111/hb111-50.pdf
http://www.cfr.org/iran/timeline-us-iran-contacts/p12806#p9
http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/engaging-iran
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/001953.php
http://www1.whdh.com/news/articles/national/BO42553/
http://www.mideastweb.org/iranian_letter_of_2003.htm
http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000467.htm

William R. Cumming

War will not start until after the Conventions and probably not until after the elections in the fall. IMO of course!

Norbert Salamon

Colonel:

The data I citeed is on page 29 [RED BOX]

UNITED STATES JOINT FORCES COMMAND
US JOINT OPERTIMG EMVIRONMENT REPORT 2010

turcopolier

NMS

Joint Forces Command is a useless organization that was given the job of writing crap like this by Rumsfeld. because he liked an admiral who was then commander there. the main purpose of the command seem to be to hand out consulting contracts to unemployed retired general officers and beltway bandit consulting companies. Having consulted there several times I know all about it. This paper has no effect on the government at all. I doubt if very many people have ever read it. think of it as science fiction written for a big fee. Now, if this were a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that would be a different matter but it is not. pl

turcopolier

pirouz

Several of us are intrigued by your reference to an Iranian atrempt at "surrender" in 2003. We would like a clarification of what you are referring to in this matter. Do you mean an offer of a rapprochement? pl

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