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15 January 2012

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William R. Cumming

Impications for the future?

turcopolier

WRC

This is the greatest justification for the establishment of an independant DNI in control of the NIC and not underthe control of either CIA or DoD (DIA) that I have seen. The Iran NIE of 2007 was good work but this is superb. Interested parties will always object to independant analysis as these do and as Israel has sought to ridicule its long term benefactors in the IC, but the Republic is safeguarded. Afghanistan? Another folly like Iraq and it will end much the same way. pl

VietnamVet

Colonel,

A brief internet search indicates that the USA is into the second month of the Pakistan blockade of the supply route into Afghanistan. To keep the war going there has to be an supply effort equivalent to the response to the Berlin Blockade or flying over the Hump in WWII. But, not a word in the press or on TV.

Since this is not news; and the occupants of the Hindu Kush Mountains haven’t been complaining about freezing to death on YouTube; corporations must have been given enough money to fly anything and everything into Kabul.

Yet, in a similar situation, news reports on soldiers returning from Iraq ignored their unit’s rotation schedule that will have them flying off to Afghanistan in the next six to nine months; hardly, the end to it all portrayed by the news.

turcopolier

VV

The logistics thing is really interesting. pl

Andy

We shouldn't forget the 2008 Afghanistan NIE either:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/world/asia/09afghan.html?pagewanted=all

Regarding logistics: Before the closure, only about 1/4 of all supplies passed through Pakistan (down from about 90% in 2009). The Northern Distribution Network (NDN) is now the main supply route and it reportedly had slack capacity when the Pakistanis shut down their ground routes. Most of the supplies that went through Pakistan were re-routed to the NDN (via ports in the Baltics, Georgia and Turkey). I haven't seen anything yet on whether the northern route has enough capacity right now to take it all, but that's been the US goal. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pakistani route didn't come back.

stanleyhenning

This is looking more and more like the Iraq fiasco. Thousands of US troops killed and billions of dollars down the drain so ungrateful losers can take over. Wake up US "leadership" - get ready to chalk up another sad failure.

Phil Giraldi

Exactly. The liberation of the NIE from the players in the process has long been needed. The Pentagon and CIA will always say, with caveats, what the White House wants to hear.

Problem with the NDN is that it costs a lot more than shipping into Karachi and up through the Khyber Pass. In any event, the game is over, we are talking to the Taliban and we will have another nation building failure. There was something in the press today about how the Iraqis are making USGOV contractors leave - at the end of the day what will we have gained from the waste of 4,500 plus soldiers lost and $3-5 trillion?

wondook

Logistics: Already this summer over 60% came in via RC North. To give an idea about the stuff through Pakistan:

In March 2011 it was agreed that 400 Afghanistan-bound containers leave Karachi daily under a new arrangement of Afghanistan with Pakistan (http://www.tolonews.com/en/business/2273-pakistan-allows-afghan-bound-containers-shipment-).

In 26 Nov. 200 tankers and containers were stopped in Chaman, sent back to Karachi on 5 Jan (http://tribune.com.pk/story/316387/189-nato-containers-head-back-to-karachi/); unclear whether this was all vehicles trying to go to Afghanistan or only a part of it.

About 700 "Afghan" containers are reported stranded now and are requested to be returned by the Afghans in the joint economic commission, which Pakistan will allow - minus those destined for the use of ISAF (http://tribune.com.pk/story/322497/joint-economic-commission-afghanistan-wants-stranded-containers-cleared/).

There might be more than the 700 containers, maybe in other places than Karachi, but it is unlikely to be much more. What is reported on is these 700 containers. A day and a half worth of the agreed upon maximum throughput capacity of Karachi.

As far as I know the Host Nation Trucking contract places the logistics firmly in the hands of the Afghan traders, so probably a large part of the 700 containers belongs to ISAF.

Interesting: It's ONLY 700 containers for over 100,000 Western soldiers who eat only imported food. Meaning the basics already came in mainly through the North.

Wondook

Peter

I ran through those articles also. The one comment that caught my attention was the markets around Chaman were flooded with looted goods from the convoys. Of course this is going to happen anyplace where there is strife and lots of stuff concentrated in just a few areas.

Once the pullout begins at full speed there will be many Paki and Afgani merchants and tribal war lords scrambling for a new revenue streams.

Charles I

After our withdrawal, Canada has been opening containers languishing in Pakistan and eventually shipped home only to find many pilfered, some refilled with sand and rocks.

We are assured anything dangerous was flown home, nothiong to see here move along.

http://www.thetelegram.com/Blog-Article/b/21254/Canadian-military-gear-is-stolen-in-Afghanistan

dilbert dogbert

The son-in-law just got home from Afghanistan via Mena(Sp?) Kyrgyzstan. Seems like everyone around Afghanistan has us by the short hairs via logistics.

dilbert dogbert

Little w will have shown dad that he has a bigger pair. And may I add a much much much smaller brain.

Mike

Thanks i really appreciate your post

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