NIE on Afghanistan

"The U.S. intelligence community says in a secret new assessment that the war in Afghanistan is mired in stalemate, and warns that security gains from an increase in American troops have been undercut by pervasive corruption, incompetent governance and Taliban fighters operating from neighboring Pakistan, according to U.S. officials.

The sobering judgments, laid out in a classified National Intelligence Estimate completed last month and delivered to the White House, appeared at odds with recent optimistic statements by Pentagon officials and have deepened divisions between U.S. intelligence agencies and American military commanders about progress in the decade-old war.

The detailed document, known as an NIE, runs more than 100 pages and represents the consensus view of the CIA and 15 other U.S. intelligence agencies. Similar in tone to an NIE prepared a year ago, it challenges the Pentagon's claim to have achieved lasting security gains in Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan, according to U.S. officials who have read or been briefed on its contents."  LA Times

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The US armed forces and CIA's Directorate of Operations are "interested parties" in progress toward pacification and success at the benighted adventure of COIN warfare there.  This is true even thought the assumption in Washington is that COIN is finished for a while as a srtategic doctrine rather than as a technique of some limited utility.

Their "interested party" status make the statements and forcasts of these two groups suspect,  National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) are NOW produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) which works for the Director of National Intelligence (DNI)  The NIC used to effectively bye under CIA.  This made these estimates hostages to CIA DO's particiapation in execution of national policy rather objective analysis.

That is no longer the case.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-intel-afghan-20120112,0,3639052.story

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

Impications for the future?

[turcopolier]

WRC

This is the greatest justification for the establishment of an independant DNI in control of the NIC and not underthe control of either CIA or DoD (DIA) that I have seen. The Iran NIE of 2007 was good work but this is superb. Interested parties will always object to independant analysis as these do and as Israel has sought to ridicule its long term benefactors in the IC, but the Republic is safeguarded. Afghanistan? Another folly like Iraq and it will end much the same way. pl

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

A brief internet search indicates that the USA is into the second month of the Pakistan blockade of the supply route into Afghanistan. To keep the war going there has to be an supply effort equivalent to the response to the Berlin Blockade or flying over the Hump in WWII. But, not a word in the press or on TV.

Since this is not news; and the occupants of the Hindu Kush Mountains haven’t been complaining about freezing to death on YouTube; corporations must have been given enough money to fly anything and everything into Kabul.

Yet, in a similar situation, news reports on soldiers returning from Iraq ignored their unit’s rotation schedule that will have them flying off to Afghanistan in the next six to nine months; hardly, the end to it all portrayed by the news.

[turcopolier]

VV

The logistics thing is really interesting. pl

[Andy]

We shouldn't forget the 2008 Afghanistan NIE either:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/world/asia/09afghan.html?pagewanted=all

Regarding logistics: Before the closure, only about 1/4 of all supplies passed through Pakistan (down from about 90% in 2009). The Northern Distribution Network (NDN) is now the main supply route and it reportedly had slack capacity when the Pakistanis shut down their ground routes. Most of the supplies that went through Pakistan were re-routed to the NDN (via ports in the Baltics, Georgia and Turkey). I haven't seen anything yet on whether the northern route has enough capacity right now to take it all, but that's been the US goal. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pakistani route didn't come back.

[stanleyhenning]

This is looking more and more like the Iraq fiasco. Thousands of US troops killed and billions of dollars down the drain so ungrateful losers can take over. Wake up US "leadership" - get ready to chalk up another sad failure.

[Phil Giraldi]

Exactly. The liberation of the NIE from the players in the process has long been needed. The Pentagon and CIA will always say, with caveats, what the White House wants to hear.

Problem with the NDN is that it costs a lot more than shipping into Karachi and up through the Khyber Pass. In any event, the game is over, we are talking to the Taliban and we will have another nation building failure. There was something in the press today about how the Iraqis are making USGOV contractors leave - at the end of the day what will we have gained from the waste of 4,500 plus soldiers lost and $3-5 trillion?

[wondook]

Logistics: Already this summer over 60% came in via RC North. To give an idea about the stuff through Pakistan:

In March 2011 it was agreed that 400 Afghanistan-bound containers leave Karachi daily under a new arrangement of Afghanistan with Pakistan (http://www.tolonews.com/en/business/2273-pakistan-allows-afghan-bound-containers-shipment-).

In 26 Nov. 200 tankers and containers were stopped in Chaman, sent back to Karachi on 5 Jan (http://tribune.com.pk/story/316387/189-nato-containers-head-back-to-karachi/); unclear whether this was all vehicles trying to go to Afghanistan or only a part of it.

About 700 "Afghan" containers are reported stranded now and are requested to be returned by the Afghans in the joint economic commission, which Pakistan will allow - minus those destined for the use of ISAF (http://tribune.com.pk/story/322497/joint-economic-commission-afghanistan-wants-stranded-containers-cleared/).

There might be more than the 700 containers, maybe in other places than Karachi, but it is unlikely to be much more. What is reported on is these 700 containers. A day and a half worth of the agreed upon maximum throughput capacity of Karachi.

As far as I know the Host Nation Trucking contract places the logistics firmly in the hands of the Afghan traders, so probably a large part of the 700 containers belongs to ISAF.

Interesting: It's ONLY 700 containers for over 100,000 Western soldiers who eat only imported food. Meaning the basics already came in mainly through the North.

Wondook

[Peter]

I ran through those articles also. The one comment that caught my attention was the markets around Chaman were flooded with looted goods from the convoys. Of course this is going to happen anyplace where there is strife and lots of stuff concentrated in just a few areas.

Once the pullout begins at full speed there will be many Paki and Afgani merchants and tribal war lords scrambling for a new revenue streams.

[Charles I]

After our withdrawal, Canada has been opening containers languishing in Pakistan and eventually shipped home only to find many pilfered, some refilled with sand and rocks.

We are assured anything dangerous was flown home, nothiong to see here move along.

http://www.thetelegram.com/Blog-Article/b/21254/Canadian-military-gear-is-stolen-in-Afghanistan

[dilbert dogbert]

The son-in-law just got home from Afghanistan via Mena(Sp?) Kyrgyzstan. Seems like everyone around Afghanistan has us by the short hairs via logistics.

[dilbert dogbert]

Little w will have shown dad that he has a bigger pair. And may I add a much much much smaller brain.

[Mike]

Thanks i really appreciate your post