Sic Semper Tyrannis

Mitchell does it again.

Back from her spiritual home in Israel, AM today verbally assaulted Valerie Jarrett, a counselor to the president, in an attempt to force her into statements of unlimited and unconditioned support for Israel.  In order to do that she used the words of the egregious Bachmann, an ardent Christian Zionist.  For Bachmann, no sacrifice is too great, no burden too heavy for Americans to bear on behalf of Israel.  Jarrett wisely declined to be bullied.  pl

"How's the Freedom?"

"Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood says its political party has won almost two-thirds of the parliamentary seats reserved for individual candidates in the opening rounds of the country's lower house elections.

In a statement Wednesday, the Islamist group's Freedom and Justice party says it won 36 of the 56 individual seats that were contested in nine provinces, including the two largest cities of Cairo and Alexandria. It says Freedom and Justice candidates won 34 seats in runoff elections on Monday and Tuesday after winning outright victories in two other seats in last week's first round of voting.

Official results from the runoff elections were expected by Thursday."  VOA

-----------------------------------------------

"How's the Freedom?" was what Bremer's occupation government used to say to Iraqis who complained about the lack of electricity, clean water, etc.  "How's the Freedom?  Most places in Iraq are still without dependable utilities.

Now we have Egypt where freedom is running wild in these elections with the encouragement of the US Government.  Elections solve everything!  This is the belief of many of the simpletons in the US government.  The simpletons are now in the process of telling us that the MB is a group of socially benign "moderates."  Idiots.  Every Islamist party in the world has the same basic program.  1- Gain power by any means available.  2- Create a Sharia law state.  3- Never give up power.  You ask about Turkey.  those who watch Turkey know that Erdogan is re-structuring the security forces to remove the threat of army interference wih his program.

SCAF declines to submit to civilian government on principle.  what a surprise.  pl

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Muslim-Brotherhood-Claims-Another-Victory-in-Egyptian-Elections-135158278.html

Welcome.

I appeal to Mr. Magen to emigrate to the US.  I would do everything I could to help him.  All I ask in return is that he think himself an American after he has our citizenship.  pl

http://mondoweiss.net/2011/12/another-israeli-hankering-to-be-in-the-diaspora.html

Andrea Mitchell - Likud war propagandist?

Today we had the spectacle of this famed doyenne of print and 24/7 journalism broadcasting from Tel Aviv where she made every effort to force Israelis to agree that Iran is an immediate and existential threat to Israel and that Obama is a gutless p---y who doesn't really love Israel. (another movie reference - "You never really loved the emperor"  No?)

There is a tremendous controversy in Israel over these points  The IDF general staff is dragging its feet over the wisdom of such an attack without America in the lead and former Mossad chiefs like Dagan and Halevy are doing everything they can to stop Bibi and Barak in their rush toward war.  Are the naysayers doing this because they have  warm feelings for Iran?  Hell no!  They can see that Israel lacks the capability to cripple Iran (unless they use nuclear weapons).

The CJCS and Secdef have made their positions clear.  No new war on behalf of Israel unkess they are attacked first.

I could not agree more.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Mitchell

 

A Maliki Joke?

"Fundamental disputes still surround the political composition of the Iraqi state."  Maliki

Really?  You mean the part in which you have not lived up to the internal political agreement that led to your present adinistration?  pl

------------------------------

"Hundreds of suspected Baathists recently were arrested; some of those detained have been released while others are awaiting trial. Those still in custody will receive due process and equitable treatment under Iraqi law. These detainees come from all over Iraq, and I refute characterizations that the detentions were a sectarian action based on political motives. These steps were taken to protect Iraq’s democracy.  Mailiki

Sure. It is just a coincidence that nearly all of these politically suppressed Iraqis are Sunni Arabs. pl

------------------------------

 Iraq will not allow itself to become a source of disruption to friendly countries.  Maliki

Right.  In other words, once the Americans give up control of our air space we will not in any way participate in "aggression" against Iran.  pl

-----------------------------

"Iraq seeks to build a strong army and security forces that have the capacity to protect our sovereignty and interests." Maliki

Got it.  Translation - We'll be back.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/building-a-stable-iraq/2011/12/04/gIQAhoxrTO_story.html?sub=AR

We have two armies - why?

"...some in Congress it raises this question: Does a nation drowning in debt really need two armies? Gen. James F. Amos, the Marine Corps commandant, says that misses the real point. He argues that the Marines, while willing and able to operate from dug-in positions on land, are uniquely equipped and trained to do much more -- to get to any crisis, on land, at sea or in the air, on a moment's notice."

---------------------------------

What a crock!  In fact we DO have two armies.  If Amos thinks that going on "float" more , getting rid of a few infantry battalions and having more unaccompanied rotations to places like Okinawa and Australia will obscure that fact, then IMO he is mistaken.  Let's have one ground force.  Call it whatever you want.  If you want to call it the "Super Duper Marine Army," go for it!  The economies that would result from amalgamation of the two armies would be large.  I am sure that it is not a great surprise for people if I say that making amphibious landings from barracks ships is not really "rocket science."  You like the uniforms, keep'em.  You are in better physical condition?  BS!  Look around you at today's soldiers.  You have better generals?  Well then, they will end by running the whole thing.

BTW, weren't the marines on 7 month unit rotations in both these wars?

Give America a break.  Let's have one army.  pl

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2011/12/05/postwar_marines_smaller_less_focused_on_land_war/

Several things from the Sunday newsies.

– On GPS today Gideon Rose, the editor of Foreign Affairs, stated that "now we are all Israelis." He based this on conversations with officials in Washington who indicated to him that a nuclear Iran was "intolerable." He further stated that this reflects his view that Iranian progress on nuclear weapons will soon require air attacks on that country. In listening to him it became clear that either he does not know what would be involved in an air campaign to damage the Iranian nuclear program or else he does not care to tell us. In fact such a campaign in order to be effective would involve at least 500 strike sorties and at least that many support sorties. One must ask what is the game here? I am quite certain that the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Gen. Mattis of the Marine Corps have counseled the president that they feel it would be most unwise to launch such a campaign. Their reasoning has to do with actual consideration of available resources and space/time factors. What is Mr. Rose's statement based on?

- David Ignatius has a column in today's Washington Post in which he says that the US military have essentially abandoned the doctrine of counterinsurgency. This is not a surprise. We have been predicting it on SST for years. The COIN doctrine has once again proven to be impracticable when applied to large-scale situations in which the counterinsurgents are not the owners or even the permanent occupiers of the territory. As I have tried to counsel the Coinistas over the last few years, theprophets of failed dogma inevitably suffer the same fate as their rejected teaching. Ignatius makes the plea that this doctrine should not be altogether abandoned but should be retained as some small capability of the Armed Forces. I would support that. It is a suitable secondary mission for U.S. Army special forces (the Green Berets). UW should remain their primary mission. Conventional ground forces should be greatly reduced in size to save money and to discourage the idea of large-scale foreign ground interventions.

–Supposed experts continue to express surprise that the Egyptian electorate is going to vote an Islamist parliament into office. They do not comprehend the fact that the Egyptian population in the majority are deeply Islamist. What is going to happen is that this parliament and the leadership of the Egyptian military are going to combine with the new president, whenever he is elected, to consolidate their various positions. I still think that the next president is likely to be Amre Mousa. Eventually either the Islamists or the military will end up in charge in Egypt but that may take a while.  pl

A Russian threat to the supply line?

"... in Afghanistan, everything comes from outside and the insurgency this year has been very high as 700 causalities have been reported. Therefore after the Russian decision, Afghanistan will turn into a reverse Kargil for NATO. “They will have weapons but no bullets to fire; and if Pakistan shuts the air corridors on NATO then it would be a cold death for them and America will have to renegotiate with Pakistan”, she said."  the news

-------------------------

I don't know anything about this paper but the level of menace is worrisome.  "A cold death?"  This is the first that I have heard of Russia threatening our supply line.  Is that true?  pl

http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=10685&Cat=13

The GOP Menagerie

The Republicans are out of their minds.  This president can be defeated and they are obsessed with trivia and ideology that will keep them from power.  Their candidates:

- Romney.  This is a man so filled with a sense of entitlement that he cannot answer questions from humans.  I don't remember his father being that way.  I don't understand Lincoln as being that way.  He can't talk to people like you and me.  Incredible.

- Huntsman.  He should be the nominee, but...... no chance.  What the hell is wrong with us?

- Bachmann.  An ignoramus who thinks she is running for chair of the PTA.  I would like to see a test in which she is asked to find the Caspian Sea on an unlabelled map.

- Paul.  Too old.

- Cain.

- Perry.  I feel bad about this one.  I have met him and he is one of the nicest Aggies I have ever met.  Too dumb.

- Gingrich.  This guy is a walking calculation.  His third marriage after conversion to the "old faith"' as PG calls it is legit in Catholic eyes bacause he was a heretic before.  Give us all a break!   This guy loves his notion of his own genius more than is posibble to imagine.

-Santorum.  Sister Mary Katherine's favorite kid.  Should have been a priest, could have fulfilled her dreams.  Zero flexibility.  No ability to compromise.  Yeah.  We really need this man.  pl

PS  Who is the Yankee general in the picture.?  pl

Permanent Logistics Cut off? Oil Price

 "According to Nesar Ahmad Nasery, the deputy head of Torkham Customs, around 1,000 trucks cross into Afghanistan on a daily basis, nearly 300 of which are NATO contractors carrying NATO supplies in sealed containers. Khyber Transport Association chief Shakir Afridi said that each oil tanker has a capacity of 13,000-15,000 gallons. In October 2010 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen said that fossil fuels are the number one import to Afghanistan.

Noting the obvious, as Afghanistan has no indigenous hydrocarbon supplies, every drop must be brought in, with transit greatly increasing the eventual cost. For 2001-2008, almost all U.S. and NATO supplies were trucked overland to Afghanistan through parts of Pakistan effectively controlled by the Taliban."  Oil Price

-----------------------------------

There is a rail connection from the Baltic to the northern border of Afghanistan.  Whether or not that would be sufficient to substitute for the routes from Karachi would be an intresting question.  There are rumors that Obama is thinking of a massive draw down by the end of next summer.  This might speed things up.  pl

http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/International/Furious-at-Latest-U.S.-Attack-Pakistan-Shuts-Down-Resupply-Routes-to-Afghanistan-Permanently.html

 

Happy Anniversary Iran-Contra

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

As events in and about Iran continue to unfold, from students storming the British Embassy to increased discussions and threats of new and harsher sanctions, we should take a few moments and recall that this week marks the 25th anniversary of the Iran-Contra scandal breaking into the national consciousness.  The National Security Archives at George Washington University has all the documentation that they have been able to get the government to release about what happened and even if you are familiar with the events it is interesting reading.  The Iran-Contra archive contains not only documents, but video - a lot of which has not been previously available.  A good summary of the scandal and its implications, written by a senior analyst at the National Security Archives can be found here.

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

An Islamist Majority Likely in Egypt

"The Muslim Brotherhood, a moderate Islamist movement banned for decades by Hosni Mubarak, has emerged from the shadows since the fall of the autocrat and has forecast its party will take at least 40 percent of the vote.

The battle for second place had been seen as between secular liberals and hardline Islamists who follow the strict Salafi brand of Islam, with local media indicating the latter might prevail in the new parliament.

"Al-Nur, the surprise of the moment," headlined the independent Al-Shorouq daily on Thursday, referring to the main party of the Salafists whose members follow a strict form of Islam dominant in Saudi Arabia."  AFP

-----------------------------

So far, so bad.  This early voting has been in the big cities where it is logical to expect to find a lot of westernized "liberals" and Chrristians.  After this, the voting moves to the countryside, home of the typical village dwellers and fellahiin.  How do you think they will vote?

The Western press is already beginning to define the Society of the Muslim Brothers as "moderate."  It is being said that  they are "moderate" in comparison to the Salafists of the "Nur" (Light) Party. 

The likely outcome is that there will be an MB/Salafist coalition in control of the new parliament.  The MB has already said that high on their agenda is to "achieve control" of the military and to shape the new constitution to their taste.  When that happens the likelihood of aggressive action by the army towards the Islamists will become greater. 

If the new state survives until presidential elections, then it is likely that some figurehead will be elected, a kind of Egyptian Zardari.  I still think that Amre Mousa is the most probable person.  he has the fewest principles.  One of the few is an ingrained dislike of the US. 

If memory serves the MB got started in the time of Fouad I.  Their time in the sun has been a long time coming.   "One person, one vote, one time, is their political credo.   pl

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jYHG9ygvg65a0s3uD2QxEqYJmvjw?docId=CNG.104a1c9e9c71e179b33042a465c95d6c.371