Turkey is looking south

"In his harshest words yet, Recep Tayyip Ergodan reminded Assad of the bloody end of the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, as well as past dictators, including Adolf Hitler.

“For the welfare of your own people and the region, just leave that seat,” Erdogan said in a televised speech.

“If you want to see someone who has fought until death against his own people, just look at Nazi Germany, just look at Hitler, at Mussolini, at Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania,” he said. “If you cannot draw any lessons from these, then look at the Libyan leader who was killed just 32 days ago in manner none of us wished and who used the same expression you used,” referring to Assad’s promise to keep fighting." Telegraph

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All the building blocks of geopolitics are moving around in the Greater Middle East. Saudi Arabia is exerting itself and reaching toward China and Pakistan. Iran seeks a role as perhaps the strongest, purist, cleverist, etc. The Turks dream of bygone glory.

Old Turkey hands like Phil Geraldi may well have a different view but IMO Bashar Assad would be wise to listen to Erdogan and start preparing for a dignified retirement somewhere nice, pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8906532/Syria-Turkish-prime-minister-calls-for-Assad-to-resign.html

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

Turkey has huge stakes in Syria and so far has played their hand fairly well IMO.

[J]

Colonel,

Assad could always fall back on his original yob, that of a dentist fixing Syrian teeth.

[R. Whitman]

Who "inherits" Syria after the fall of Assad? Will it be a replay of Egypt? I would like to see some speculative answers from the usual contributors here.

[Charles I]

The flurry of activity after the confluence of nabobs at this weekend's Halifax Conference does not bode well for Assad or for Iran.

Our Defence Minister seems eager to deploy our F18's to Syria under a UN mandate. US, Canada & Britain all just announced tougher sanctions against Iran, in particular, a ban on dealings with Iran's central bank. This last seems as provocative an act as a blockade or NFZ.

Can anybody comment on any synergy or relation/reaction between Erdogan on Turkey and the Ziocons on Iran? All I know is that I hear reports castigating a billion of support allegedly given Syria by Iran.

What would Iran do upon an attack on Syria? what would Syria do upon an attack on Iran?

[Martin J]

Iran won't do anything. It would rather not lose Assad but it wont be the end ofthe world. They will still be able to re-equip Hezbullah through Iraq. Looking at Libya, it is clear the militias there are breaking down into petty rivalries and rent seeking activities when they're not killing black people. Syria will be even more lawless I suspect.
I was up on the border last week between northern Lebanon and Syria and met some of the Free Syria Army. They were affable, educated in some cases, articulate, and at pains to demonstrate they were secular. They still reverted to sectarian ideas when they spoke about how down trodden the Sunnis were. If there will be war it will be sectarian. The mash of Christian, Allawite, Shia, Sunni and Turkoman villages in Akkar in Lebanon's north will be realigned too if local comments about the Allawites and Shia are anything to go by. I expect many to move into Tripoli where 60,000 Allawite live with some form of protection.

[Jackie]

J - Assad is an opthalmologist. I'm not sure he does teeth, but I'm sure Syrians with eye problems would appreciate his expertise.

[YT]

Jackie,

I'm kinda thankful I ain't syrian.

[confusedponderer]

In a sense, the Turks act consequently after their efforts to enter the EU have been met with a genuine lack of enthusiasm and a lot of pontification on Europe's part. Let them look south. They can and probably will be a stabilising factor.

Neo-Ottomanism? It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Turks consider their strategic backyard as just that and engage it accordingly. In light of the emergence or the Kurdish proto-state in North Iraq that is only understandable.

I myself have never gotten rid of the impression that the US wanted Turkey's EU accession far more than the Europeans. One important factor would be the counterweight that Turkey would add to 'New Europe' and against the core EU states, notably, Germany and France.

And naturally, as soon as Turkish interests start to conflict with Israeli views on matters like Palestine (say, if they develop empathy for the plight of Palestinians), Turkey becomes a country ruled by dangerous Islamists.

There is very little compunction in pro-Israeli circles to demonize Turkey if need be; these people are quite heavy handed, all stick. JINSA and CUFI newsletters speak a clear language in that regard.

I wonder, will Israel and her partisans ever be able to exist without enemies? I feel they need the external enemy since, as long as those exist, Israel doesn't need to address her substantial inner frictions.

[Phil Giraldi]

I am somewhat surprised at the depth of the Turkish involvement in Syria. A close friend of mine at the Foreign Ministry has told me that the Turkish role would be very much on the sideline, but either he was poorly informed or was misleading me so I wouldn't write something critical. I do not believe that Erdogan thinks he can reestablish the Ottoman Empire except possibly as the economic engine for the region, but he clearly is trying to coopt the Syrian rebel movement to make sure it is friendly to Ankara. More interesting, perhaps, is that the White House is clearly strengthening ties with Turkey, seeing it as the major source of stability for the region as the US begins its retreat. What is interesting is that it is happening in spite of the hostility of the Israel Lobby.

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

I think with the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the external threats against Tureky receeded so much so that they cold start re-asserting their own interests.

Clearly what transpires in Syria is important to Turkey not because of some sort of neo-Ottomanism but because Syria is a neighboring state with overlapping ethno-religious populations with Turkey.

I just do not see Turkey being able to dictate or shape the future of Syria, however - in any possible post-Alawite dispensation. I mean, what could possibly be the mechanisms for the exercise of strong and durable influence?I do not see any.

Turkey faces in Syria the risks of Kurdish nationalism, Sunni Islamism, and Alawite sectarianism.

I personally do not see any upsides for Turkey in the Crisis in Syria.

And if Turks are playing this for the sake of weakening Iran, then they are utter fools.

[Charles I]

And today is news Erdogan feels confident enough or compelled to offer a stinting apology for a 1930's Kurdish massacre.

Turkey PM Erdogan apologises for 1930s Kurdish killings.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15857429

Commendable.

[Babak Makkinejad]

From Zaman:

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-263835-the-world-according-to-bashar-al-assad-by-ziya-meral*.html

Note that if the statement regarding Israel is correct then for a third time in less than 2 months Iran and Israel are in agreement:

1- No to Two-State Solution in Palestine
2- No to Regime Change in Syria
3- No to Middle East Nuclear Free Zone