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26 November 2011

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Jake

Mansoor Ijaz???

The guy who screwed up the surveillance on Danny Pearl with the false lead to Fox News that he had been killed, when in fact US Forces were close to finding Pearl's hideout. Two weeks later Pearl was beheaded....

As far as I am concerned...Mansoor Ijaz should have been tried right next to KSM. But ths putz is protected by the Woosley and Gaffney's of the world.

walrus

.....And it is now reported that Pakistan has closed the supply route through the Khyber Pass.

robt willmann

Please disregard and cancel the previous comment, as it duplicates what is in the last paragraph of Mr. Ali's post; I had the story in mind when I saw the posting and did not read it thoroughly before making the comment, and he had already addressed the event.

Jake

General Ali...

Question...How well protected is the Pak Strategic Forces? How would we handle the situation, in your opinion, if there was a direct threat to these platforms and warheads?

FB Ali

It is very well protected. I do not see any possibility of Taliban or other insurgents getting hold of any of these weapons.

The real concern the US should have is of a hostile government or military command in Pakistan.

turcopolier

fb ali

"The real concern the US should have is of a hostile government or military command in Pakistan."

Agree. That would revolutionize the sutuation. pl

Ingolf


Wonderful story, Furrukh, and beautifully told.

How would you now rate the odds of such a shift towards hostility on the part of Pakistan's government or military?


Jake

"The real concern the US should have is of a hostile government or military command in Pakistan."

Then what? In your opinion what are the odds of either happening?

FB Ali

Ingolf, Jake,

I don't think the present government or military command in Pakistan is likely to turn hostile to the US. Nor is that likely with their possible successors, whatever the rhetoric they may employ. The reason is that Pakistan is totally dependent on US aid and benevolence (in international financial institutions) to sustain itself.

The possibility of that kind of attitude would arise if there was a revolutionary change in the country's power structure. This is not possible on the civilian side; it is such a change in the military that would dramatically change the equation. I do not think this kind of development is likely to arise from among the generals, but could conceivably come from mid-level officers (I have no idea what the odds of that would be). Another possible scenario involves the country undergoing some severe crisis which would shake up the current order and cause the military to fracture.

A hostile government or military command in Pakistan is not going to use its nuclear weapons against the US (that would be committing suicide). The danger is that it may give nuclear material to non-state actors to use against the US or Israel.

The Beaver

Haqqani's wife is taking legal action against Ijaz at the request of Zardari

Basilisk

The game of nations, you just can't make this stuff up. Thanks, General Ali, terrific reportage.

toto

Is there any chance of Imran Khan riding a general wave of discontent to office at the next election?

And if so, with what consequences?

Charles I

Thanks FB your insight makes for terrific reporting. It seemed Kayani et al were almost on the ropes a month ago. Ditto Basilisk re truth & fiction.

Charles I

So who actually recalls the Pakistani missile ranges we had at before I went to the cottage i think it was, last winter.

Charles I

Thanks for the missile debate Pat.

FB you have heartening faith in a not too threatening Pakistani government.

Why aren't the Israeli's more upset, that was the pointed question for me back when we did the ranges.

The missile ranges will increase eventually most likelly whoever is in charge. I think potential real trouble is that Pakistan will likely further proliferate for political or private economic reasons even when governed by nominally stable "friends".

Or they will slowly open up to Chinese investment and penetration that may facilitate same.

Which leads me to wonder what Chinese/Israeli relations are, but its Grey Cup Sunday after the movie.

FB Ali

Charles,

Let's get real. Why in heck would Pakistan toss nukes at Israel? These are weapons of last resort, especially if you have only a few of them. You keep them for life-and-death situations, not for recreational use. The only issues that Pakistan has with Israel can all be dealt with by issuing a strong statement once every six months.

Besides, they know that if they ever did that, they'd have the s--t bombed out of them by the US (with the Indians coming over afterwards to pulverize anything still left standing). Just doesn't make sense!

By the same token, why in Heaven's name would Iran ever use a nuke against Israel, even if it had one? That's why Israel is at such pains to paint Ahmadinejad as some sort of 'mad mullah'. He's nothing of the sort if you've ever seen an interview of his on TV, and not paid any attention to Fox News and its mad mullahs.

FB Ali

If the election were a reasonably fair one, he does have a fairly good chance. Once in power he could make many policy changes, but a lot would depend on the kind of majority he got.

Ingolf


Amen. The demonisation of Iran must surely rank as one of the most successful propaganda campaigns ever.

buttjee

Both the scenario put forward are imaginary in nature. The military and political leadership may at times drag their feet on cooperation with US but there is no question of getting hostile towards US. Similarly, there is no possibility of passing on the fissile material to any non state actors because of the extremely tough safeguards and the military leaderships unwavering commitment to nonproliferation.

buttjee

Haqqani and Mansoor Ijaz, both are well known crooks of their own class having similar ambitions. Till such times they are sorted out well and proper they will keep on staging such crafty acts to seek some vital gains for themselves.

Norbert M Salamon

Thank you for the excellent report on this internal to Pakistan Politics.

I agree with your analysis of the nuclear bomb issue.

I have only one comment on your statement that Pakistan depends on USA for financial support. China is lurking there with financial help {are they not building a nuclear reactor or 2?] and highways to China?], and for them it is very reasonable to use their excess US $ to park it in Pakistan, buying some political edge therein, while undermining USA intentions - rather than lending the funds to the USA to help the USA in encircling mainland China.

I would appreciate any replies.
Thank you.

FB Ali

Yes, China is providing aid to Pakistan. However, so far it has shown no inclination to take over the entire burden of financially backing Pakistan.

turcopolier

fb ali

The Saudis can make up the difference. pl

FB Ali

I don't see either China or the Saudis assuming the ongoing burden of supporting Pakistan year after year. Both are already getting what they want from Pakistan in return for the occasional or limited aid that they give it. They don't need to get more involved, especially as it would draw them into the labyrinth of internal Pakistani 'politics'.

JYD

Brig. Ali,

Why would Haqqani need a go-between to send a message to Adm. Mullen when he could just meet the Admiral face to face in a matter of minutes from the Pak embassy in DC? Haqqani was tight with the US military and the White House.

The alleged memo itself reads like a low-quality document, nothing like the elegant prose that Haqqani's writings usually demonstrate.

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