Jeff White on the FSA

"The Asad regime cannot survive without killing, and the FSA has changed the game from one in which the regime was free to kill its citizens at will and without cost, to one in which it faces an armed opposition and is suffering losses. Increased demands on government forces and further civilian deaths will produce more defections, and these processes will in turn escalate the fighting.

Because the FSA is an increasingly important player that will likely influence the outcome of events in Syria, the United States and its partners should make contact with its members and learn as much as possible about the group. Questions concerning its nature, its potential as an armed force, and the role of Islamists can be resolved through such contact as well as intelligence work. If the results are positive, then the FSA should be assisted wherever outside aid would be both possible and effective. Arms, advice, training, and money could be provided through clandestine channels, if nothing else."  Jeff White at WINEP

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That says "Al jaysh as-suri al-hur"  (Free Syrian Army).  Jeff White is an old DIA colleague and one of the best analysts around.   He is calling for what TTG and I have been preaching.  Perhaps it is already under way.  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3429

Comments

[FB Ali]

The FSA command is based in Turkey, and the force is presumably being supplied and assisted by Turkey.

Turkey will not look favourably on other foreign (Western or Arab) assistance and links to the FSA (or the Syrian opposition generally). It will try to forestall and prevent it. In fact, the reason why Turkey is adopting such a strong anti-regime stance in Syria is to preclude the opposition and resistance from turning to other sources of support.

[turcopolier]

fb ali

That is undoubtedly true and we have spent 50 years nurturuing the Turkish SF people. pl

[Pirouz]

His estimates for FSyA troop strength matches my own. (For weeks now, I'd been taking heat elsewhere for much lower numbers than "activists" have been depicting.)

So the intent appears to boost up the numbers and capability of the FSyA with support of France, US, Turkey (and likely Israel), while KSA continues to do the same for "armed groups," verifying Syria's earlier claims of foreign involvement and now intervention, with the goal of civil war and an eventual outcome of regime change.

Meanwhile, armed groups and possibly FSyA have been attacking gas shipments along the highway to Damascus/Allepo. Intent by the rebels is to reduce the quality of life for these residents to the point where they're incited to rebel against the regime.

[The Twisted Genius]

I just read Jeff White's article on the WINEP site. It's excellent. The situation as described by Jeff is of an evolving and well organized armed insurgency. The organization, tactics and strategy in use could have come out of an old FM 31-21 (Special Forces Operations). Our SF has a long history of training and working with allied special forces and commando units. We share tactics and tradecraft and build lasting bonds. As Colonel Lang said, "we have spent 50 years nurturuing the Turkish SF people." I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a 10th Group MTT in Turkey right now working with their Turkish counterparts.

I never worked with the Turks, but I did work with the Italian 9th Parachute Assault Regiment. My team and an Italian team worked together during a Flintlock exercise in Germany. We next met in Lebanon and worked together in ways that only soldiers would understand.

[arbogast]

When Crazy Joey Gallo was shot a sufficient number of times in Umberto's Clam Bar while celebrating his birthday, a sufficient number to ensure it was his last birthday, the New York Daily News (not to be confused with Murdoch's Post) interviewed a gangster who said, "It had to happen."

Four or five armed men had to show up at Umberto's and perforate Joey. Sort of like the sun had to rise in the East.

It had to happen.

[Russ Wagenfeld]

Hi Jeff,
Excellent item and good to see you posting here. The only comment I have is that the militarization of the Syrian resistance increases the likelihood that if the movement is successful the immediate post Asad period is likely to witness significantly more sectarian and other strife than otherwise would have been the case.
Regards,
Russ

[Jonathan House]

The whole of the piece by Jeff White is posted on http://syriacomment.com/ I think it is worth going to the link above or to Syria Comment and to read the whole thing.

Syria Comment also has some other interesting comments and links concerning the FSA.

Jonathan

[turcopolier]

Jonathan House

My link brings up the whole article. pl

[Jonathan House]

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/212224.html

A Turkish newspaper has unveiled that French military forces are training armed Syrian rebels to fight the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

According to Milliyet, as cited by IRNA, France has sent its military training forces to Turkey and Lebanon to coach the so-called Free Syrian Army -- a group of defectors operating out of Turkey and Lebanon -- in an effort to wage war against Syria's military.

The report added that the French, British, and Turkish authorities “have reached an agreement to send arms into Syria.”

The Turkish daily said that the three have informed the US about training and arming the Syrian opposition.

According to Milliyet, a group of armed rebels are currently stationed in Turkey's Hatay Province near the border with Syria.

The report comes as an earlier report had revealed that the British and French intelligence agencies have reportedly tasked their agents with contacting Syrian dissidents based in the northern Lebanese town of Tripoli in order to help fuel unrest in Syria.

Reports also said that French intelligence agents have been sent to northern Lebanon and Turkey to build the first contingents of the Free Syrian Army out of the deserters who have fled Syria.

Syria has been experiencing unrest since mid-March, with demonstrations being held both against and in support of President Assad.

Damascus says the unrest has been largely incited by elements that are well-paid and armed by foreign powers. Hundreds of people, including members of the security forces, have been killed in the turmoil.

The opposition and Western countries accuse Syrian security forces of being behind the killings in the country, but the government blames what it describes as outlaws, saboteurs and armed terrorist groups for the deadly violence, stressing that the unrest is being orchestrated from abroad.

[William R. Cumming]

So reason to believe Turkish Special Ops forces are competent?

[arbogast]

More substantively, BHL is behind this. Apparently, it was he who convinced Sarkozy to bomb Libya, and he is very concerned with his self-image not to appear to have neglected Syria because there was no oil there.

NATO will be bombing Syria by Christmas. The birthpangs of a new Middle East.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard-Henri_Lévy