Egyptian Army to Mobs - Not so fast!

"Maj. Gen. Mukhtar el-Mallah, another council member, told the news conference that the military would not relinquish power because to do so would be “a betrayal of the trust placed in our hands by the people.” Egyptians must focus on the elections, he said, not on street protests.

“We will not relinquish power because of a slogan-chanting crowd,” he said, according to The Associated Press, “Being in power is not a blessing. It is a curse. It’s a very heavy responsibility.”" NY Times

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Mufaga'a! (Surprise!) The generals are not going to surrender power to the mobs. How many times must I point this out? To do so would be suicidal and would create a chaos in Egyps from which just about anything could emerge. The February revolt was supposed to be about the downfall of the Mubarak capitalist clique. It was disguised as being secularist and liberal. This disguise was mainly foisted upon the worldby the ever dim-witted group think of the MSM. Now the truth is revealed. The aim of this continuing revolt is the overthrow of society as it has been in Egypt. Stand by for more fireworks.

Yemen is quite different. There will be no serious attempt for widespread social change there. The Zeidi tribals will emerge controlling the situation as they always do. Why? It is becasue rthey are the baddest "mothers" in the Yemen.

Syria? Watch the Turks. pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/25/world/middleeast/generals-in-egypt-offer-apology-for-violent-clashes.html

Comments

[R. Whitman]

Syria? Watch the Turks.

Any predictions on what actions the Turks will take??

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

If the Feb revolt was "disguised as being secularist and liberal", who do you think is behind this continuing revolt aimed at the "overthrow of society as it has been in Egypt"?

[turcopolier]

FB

Various Islamist groups "guiding" the gullible. pl

[turcopolier]

RW

Fearless Forecast!I think that if this butchery continues then there will be UN, Arab League and OIF documents sufficient to justify in Erdogan's mind the creation of refugee sanctuaries in nothern Syria east of Hatay. These will inevitably become base areas for rebel groups, many of them Sunni Islamist in nature. After that, who can say? pl

[steve g]

Read today CVN-77(George HW.Bush) carrier
group redeploying from Straits of Hormuz to
Med off Syria. Russians are not happy in the
least, threatening our missle shield should
we stage it. NATO considering no fly zone.
Are the stars lining up for 1914 redux?

[walrus]

I don't think Europe will allow themselves (via NATO) to be drawn into 1914 redux. They wouldn't in the Balkans.

Col. Lang might like to comment on the current utility of NATO; has it passed its "use by" date?

[turcopolier]

walrus

As I have said, NATO is an outmoded alliance. pl

[The beaver]

In the meantime, Abu Mazen is on a 4-day visit in Cairo and reconciliation talks with Hamas has started under the patronage of the Egyptian authority.

The U.S. is lobbying strongly against any reconciliation of the Palestinian government, which would mean a move toward new Palestinian elections. At stake is another full-scale imposition of economic sanctions that will have a devastating impact on the situation in the West Bank, despite defiant Palestinian statements.

However, the administration is gung-ho on Egyptian elctions on Monday. Well Israel needs its peace and oil/gas from Egypt!!!! deux poids deux mesures

[R. Whitman]

I note that Halab(Aleppo) is the main city in the area. Do you think that this will or is the main area of rebel activity? My knowledge of Syria is almost non-existent. I did some work here in the US for Syrian clients thru a subsibiary of Shell Oil 26 years ago and thats it.

[Redhand]

I don't really understand your position on Egypt, Col. Lang.

Near as I can tell you've consistently offered a "Meet the New Boss [the military], same as the Old Boss [Mubarak]" analysis while suggesting that those protesting in the streets are a front for radical Islamist elements, which will turn Egypt into something far worse [chaos or a new Islamist State like Iran?] if they are allowed to seize power.

Do I have this right, i.e. that in your view the prospects for true democracy in Egypt are nil, and that it's in the US interest to stick with the the devil we know [the military] rather than stupidly root for [Islamist] regime change?

[mo]

Colonel,
Why does the army need to have power to keep order? The fact that they tried to have a "civilian" govt. as a fig leaf for their attempts to stay in power surely is testament to what their motivations are, and I dont think "keeping order" is high on that list. And I dont think the Islamists are behing the agitation, not least because they share the same paymasters as the generals.

As for Syria, I dont believe the Turks have the balls to actually go to war with Syria, well not at least until there is no army left to fight them. Im actually surprised by the NATO reticence to commit air strikes on Syria; Surely its not for fear of Syria putting up a fight.

The leader of the Free Syrian Army today declared that Hizballah has sent in "mercenaries" to fight them.

Such a statement should give anyone who knows anything about the area all the clues needed to know what crowd this man is playing to, what his goals are and who his backers are.

If these clues do in fact mean what I believe they mean then I am hopeful that Assad wins this one. The alternative will be messy, bloody and I think the Syrians will see repression on a larger scale than they are seeing now.

[turcopolier]

redhand

"in your view the prospects for true democracy in Egypt are nil, and that it's in the US interest to stick with the the devil we know [the military] rather than stupidly root for [Islamist] regime change? "

Yes. pl

[Rd.]

mo said...
“Im actually surprised by the NATO reticence to commit air strikes on Syria;”

Perhaps S-300 has something to do with that???

On the other hand, Turkey’s deputy prime minister just released a statements;

“Turkey says unrest is Syria’s internal affair, won’t allow any intervention”

There is also an analysis on Today’s Zaman (Turkish official news??) expecting Assad to maintain due to majority population support as well as mi support.

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-263858-turkey-says-unrest-is-syrias-internal-affair-wont-allow-any-intervention.html

[William RAISER]

I will watch with interest, but I think you're miscalling this one. The notion of an Islamist threat in any radical sense doesn't fit whats happening in Egypt. "Democracy"? Difficult to imagine going from multi-years of dictatorship to "democracy". Years long feeling toward some kind of "Islamic democracy" (yes, that is possible), moderate Islam based "democracy" is the likeliest senario. Troubled transition over multiple years, yes; but not chaos.

We live in "interesting times".

The US would LOVE to see the military continue. Definitely the "devil" the US elite knows and can work with.

[turcopolier]

raiser

the US government would prefer the same outcome that you and they hope for. Neither desire is based on sober analysis and knowledge. Both are based on wishful thinking. you are naive and I doubt that you know much of Egypt. pl

[Jonathan House]

Is the coherence/allegiance of the younger members of the officer corps a near certainty? In other words, is a division within the officer corp possible, a division such that an alliance emerges with (e.g.) MB in a subordinate position or with some other non-military group(s)against the currently dominant leadership of the officer corps?

I am completely ignorant of both countries but reading current blogs etc. it seems that this type of thing might be possible in Syria and so I wonder if the same might be true of Egypt.

Jonathan

[turcopolier]

Jonathan House

This is a good question. Counter-subversion is a major pre-occupation of the Egyptian Army, as opposed to the rest of the the Egyptian security services, of which I know little. I don't know how much of a problem this is. pl

[Jonathan House]

A friend sent me to this link. Guardian article and video (4 minutes) of an army major "defector".
.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2011/nov/25/egyptian-military-defector-army-video
.
Lead paragraph:
Egyptian military defector: 'I saw people dying and the army gave the orders for us to stand and watch' -
.
video: Speaking next to an open window that looks out on to Tahrir Square, Major Tamer Samir Badr says he now feels it is his duty to protect 'these people who are fighting for our rights'. The 37-year-old claims many officers have been attending the protests secretly in civilian clothes