Barry Lando - a new correspondent

Barry Lando has asked me to post a few of his papers by way of introduction.  These appeared this week in a couple of the bigger blogs.  These overlap a bit but are worth a read.  pl

Download China and Iran1

Download Gulf OIl and China blog2

Download Gulf OIl and China's waynofn

Comments

[J]

Colonel,

Have you read the last sentence of Mr. Lando's bio on TruthDig? Notice the marketing hook at the end in the last sentence to entice one to seek/purchase his latest novel, 'it' (Israel's most closely guarded secret) was left as an unanswered item. Cagey marketing ploy indeed.

[J]

Welcome to SST side of Heaven Mr. Lando, am looking forward to reading your future posts.

[Doug Tunnell]

Glad to see Barry's work here ! Thanks

[barry lando]

thanks to j and doug tunnell....Cagey marketing ploy means i have to finish writing the novel...

[Petrous]

"Arabian" Gulf? Where in the world is that? I guess objectivity and geography are out the door for Mr. Lando.

[Rd.]

"Lessons from a Lab Rat."

Analyzing the US foreign policy challenges from the perspective of a Rat, certainly offers an aspect of intellectualism which has been quite prevalent in US policy establishments. And it shows.

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

Chinese are building a 5-6 billion dollar oil pipeline in UAE in order to paybass the Starits of Hormuz.

They have tens of billions of investments in Iran.

They have investments in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

They are heavily present in Pakistan.

And they are buying large amounts of oil from Suaid Arabia.

On a different thread on this site, there is a discussion of containment of China.

Well, it is not China that is contained.

They are acting like 19-th Century Yankee Traders.

[crf]

It's very good that China and Russia are still dealing with Iran. That will afford Iran economic development, which makes eventual political liberalisation more likely.

Both Iran and US have taken misteps in their relationship. During the mid to late Nineties, with Rafsanjani and Khatami, a real opportunity for rapprochement was there to be taken, and the late Clinton and early Bush admins somehow let it slip through their fingers. Even the Canadian and US media was not too stridently anti-Iran then.

After that, Iran has not helped itself by advancing and 'electing' Ahmadinejad, who's been needlessly confrontational internationally, and too despostic at home: I can't see how it will be politically possible for any western politician to constructively deal with Iran for some years.

So that leaves China and Russia: in the long run, we'll likely be grateful for their current dealings with Iran.

[Thomas]

crf,

Why does everyone assume the problem is Ahmadinejad?

Ali Khamenei has been the man since 1989. It would be wise to hold him accountable, because he is.

[crf]

I don't think Ali Khamenei speaks through Ahmadinejad (but of course Khamenei should be held accountable). Ahmadinejad is President, and nominates a cabinet which governs Iran in most aspects. He's the one who's now the domestic face, international face, and almost certainly the one (likely) rigging elections and cracking down on dissident behaviour. Probably Khamenei still has the power to knock Ahmadinejad off his pedestal. It's easy to invision power in Iran flowing from a sole source, Khamenei, levered down through the country: but is that correct? (Maybe at one time, with Khomeini, but it seems to me that the Supreme Leader has deliberately created a separation between his office and the presidential executive.)

Ahmadinejad is a problem because of the thoughtless words flowing from his mouth. Words that never flowed from Ahmadinejad's predecessor's mouths. If we're really thinking that these are Khamenei's words, why did the message change with Ahmadinejad's election, with increasing stridency as Ahmadinejad continues in his office?

[Thomas]

crf,

"If we're really thinking that these are Khamenei's words, why did the message change with Ahmadinejad's election, with increasing stridency as Ahmadinejad continues in his office?"

The message change came with the real threat of a neocon led war (2003-2005).

My view is that the President of the IRI is equal of an Executive Officer to the Captain of a ship. Ali Khamenei has these administrative executives do the tedious tasks while he controls the key decisions (war and peace, foreign policy etc.) without having to deal with the daily grind of running a state. Also through other sources like the Guardian Council, Judiciary, vetting candidates for the Majilles he maintains control as a benevolent overseer of the Islamic Republic. It seemed to work until June 2009 when the populace called bullshit on the elections (and he broke precedent by declaring them valid) and their constitutional crisis commenced.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is populist politician with a big mouth just like our own bombastic blowhards. He does recognize his place in history and wants to establish a legacy. For this reason he would make that Grand Bargain with the US if he could, but Khamenei is the one blocking it. These two have been having an internal conflict since the election and Ali still hasn’t knocked him down and out.

Please accept my apology, because, now looking back on it, my comment may have been born of frustration at seeing Ahmadinejad being held responsible (even by Iranians) when it has always been Khamenei. If the focus was placed more squarely on the Old Man, as it should be, then resolutions to outstanding issues would be possible, I believe.

Sincerely,
Thomas