Sic Semper Tyrannis

Delusions of Grandeur or Overcompensation?

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Last night NY's Mayor Bloomberg, speaking at MIT in an attempt to establish NY City as the next tech hub/corridor, presented a very unique view of New York's place in the world.  As part of his address he announced that “I have my own army in the NYPD, which is the seventh biggest army in the world. I have my own State Department, much to Foggy Bottom’s annoyance. We have the United Nations in New York, and so we have an entree into the diplomatic world that Washington does not have,”.  Makes one wonder exactly who the good mayor sees when he looks in the mirror every morning.  Worse it shows the casual and cavalier nature of how we have allowed our police departments and law enforcement to become militarized.

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Should we get "out of Dodge?"

"Pat, 

As always, I greatly enjoy your blog and greatly appreciate your hard work keeping it going. 

I have a simple question I would like to see posed to the wise people for discussion on your blog under my by-line of WP. 

What would happen if the U.S. immediately ceased all aid and subsidies to Pakistan, burned all of its bases, equipment, and embassy in Afghanistan, and put all American troops, personnel, and contractors on planes back to the U.S. so they all arrived in time for Christmas?  Or, to put it another way, what would be the consequences of an immediate, total, and absolute withdrawal from Afghanistan and Pakistan? 

It is time for the U.S. radically to rethink its approach to the region.

JP"

 

Miss Daisy would be shocked.

This does not require commentary.  pl

http://www.youtube.com/v/DwptQxbnSBs

http://mondoweiss.net/2011/11/report-israeli-govt-warns-israelis-in-u-s-not-to-marry-american-jews-but-come-home.html

Jeff White on the FSA

"The Asad regime cannot survive without killing, and the FSA has changed the game from one in which the regime was free to kill its citizens at will and without cost, to one in which it faces an armed opposition and is suffering losses. Increased demands on government forces and further civilian deaths will produce more defections, and these processes will in turn escalate the fighting.

Because the FSA is an increasingly important player that will likely influence the outcome of events in Syria, the United States and its partners should make contact with its members and learn as much as possible about the group. Questions concerning its nature, its potential as an armed force, and the role of Islamists can be resolved through such contact as well as intelligence work. If the results are positive, then the FSA should be assisted wherever outside aid would be both possible and effective. Arms, advice, training, and money could be provided through clandestine channels, if nothing else."  Jeff White at WINEP

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That says "Al jaysh as-suri al-hur"  (Free Syrian Army).  Jeff White is an old DIA colleague and one of the best analysts around.   He is calling for what TTG and I have been preaching.  Perhaps it is already under way.  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3429

"Advisers"

It is a standard ploy of the "big guys" in the Washington zoo scene to set up businesses in which they "advise" and make introductions but avoid having to register as lobbyists so that they can answer the "are you a lobbyist" question without flinching. Cohen, Kissinger, Scowcroft, Mcfarland (remember him) are all in this business as are a host of others. I am no "fan" of Gingrich but fair is fair. pl

Highlander asked.

Highlander 

My way of thinking such things through is entirely subjective.  I have always been opposed to systems of “objective” analysis of real world problems in the analysis of human affairs.  I have opposed them whether in intelligence or in academia.  The great difficulty with objective systems is that they inevitably build models for whatever they are studying.  Such models require that a problem be “factored” for the elements of the study.  This creates artificialities since human affairs concern humans and humans are more complex than any model can be made unless the subject studied is extremely narrow. Any widening of the subject beyond something like a market place mechanism is likely to lead to false results through an inability to reflect actual human thought.  Not surprisingly, social “scientists” do not like my position on this, but since none of them are Hari Seldon, I am not impressed. 

My own analysis is based on two altogether subjective aspects of my mental process: 

-        I view all of human experience as a continuum extending through time, developing, expanding and reflecting an accumulation of learning and development by human groups in a variety of paths, some of which share characteristics and many of which do not.  This is basically a river of moving data that is growing and changing as it flows.  We live in a small segment of that river’s current but the course of the river upstream has made our piece of the river what it is and the river flowing through and past us creates a future that is shaped by the stream as it flows forward in time.  This does not mean that what has been will necessarily be, but it does mean that the elements of the past will be present in any future.  It means that something truly new in human affairs is a rarity.  We often think things are new but usually that is because we do not know enough about the past.  I watch continuously for what  have recently been called “black swans.” 

-        I have spent my life accumulating knowledge in a wide variety of fields.  I have a good memory.  My mind is like a filing cabinet with most of the files available for inspection.  Anomalous phenomena stand out against the picture formed by the stream of history in much the same way that a moving object stands out against a static  or constant background.  I often see them clearly. 

Israel?  I don’t think God is a real estate agent and I don’t think the Israeli claim to a divine right to Palestine is anything more than the kind of myth making that Elie Khedourie discussed in his book on nationalism.  I have no objection to Israel, its existence or its regional ambitions.  I have never been interested in taking anyone’s side against the Israelis.  As I said before my only complaints about Israel are that they manipulate out political process to their advantage and to American disadvantage and they use their access to a 5^th column among our citizens to do it.   The other thing I don’t like about our relationship to Israel is that the relationship is very one sided.  The alliance with Israel has never been profitable on a net basis and it still is not.  Pl

Egyptian Developments - Yusuf al-Misry

Just thought to discuss one aspect of the Egyptian situation with Pat and all the friends here as in fact media reports in the US are getting way much better than earlier in reporting the day to day events. Yet, there is an obvious failure in discussing where these events lead, or the trends that emerge to create a new dynamism in Egypt and the region.

We all know by now that the MBs will win the day in the new parliament followed by the NDP. The question now is : then what?. The main concern of the Egyptians is the economic situation. Their victory in the 25^th of January lifted expectations to an unrealistic level. This brings  a sense of empowerment and a lack of patience.

On one hand, we have the Islamists who really do not have any economic plan other than returning to what was happening under Mubarak minus the flagrant corruption (to a certain degree). This pattern of economic “development” does not develop anything.   In the best case scenario the MBs will be unable to deliver fast enough and in the worst case they will not deliver at all.

With the youth who found their road to the main squares in Egyptian cities we might be in for a prolonged period of instability. Those who say that the instability is a result of the fall of Mubarak are simply wrong because his regime was unsustainable anyway. The question then is the question now :  if the Egyptians do not find soon enough a convincing path to real development we will be back to square one.

If such a path does not yield results fast enough it should at least be convincing to the majority of the population that it will eventually change the horrifying unemployment figures (the real ones).  It does not seem likely that either of these things will happen.   That being so, we will witness a couple of years of relative and uneasy calm at best.

Other issues that really need to be discussed is the relative gain of weight of the periphery countries surrounding the region as a result of the relative weakening of the “Arab World” – (God knows how I dislike this term). Also there are growing prospect of Shia unrest in the Gulf. Could it be the following wave?. But it is safer to remain in Egypt for now. Sorry for not writing more often.   Yusuf al-Misry

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I have said from the beginning that Egypt's main problem is economic and cultural, not political.  It is not a matter of personalities.  Egyptians just have too many children for the size of the national economic product.  pl

 

 

The ME - a Distant Land

Someone who used to post here, but evidently gave up put a comment on another blog to the effect that my views on the ME are unacceptable 1- because they are not Chomskyite (i.e. seeking revolution everywhere in the best anarchist and socialist tradition) and 2- because some of my views are compatible with Israeli analysis. I can only say that for me the ME is a distant and somewhat alien place even after so many years of work there or about there. Anyone who thinks I ever went "Asiatic" is wrong As for the Israelis and their views I am simply indifferent to the Israelis and their country. If they "get it right" at times, well, to quote von Rumsfeld, "even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then." pl

"OUR WORDY WORLD" by Michael Brenner

In the beginning was the Word.  Words soon followed as humans got into the habit of exchanging thoughts.  The Garden of Eden orchard scene likely had something to do with it since Adam and Eve surely felt an urgent need to tell their friends all about the awesome thing that had just happened.  Language was the natural accompaniment.  Speaking extended the range of bonding and permitted civilizations to form.  The pageant of human progress took off – eventually reaching its modern zenith albeit with some turbulence along the way, aggravated by the awkward Tower of Babel effect.

Today, communication is celebrated with fanfare as the spate of innovative electronic means to speak/write mounts.  Never before in human history has there been anything like this ease in reaching out and touching someone; and that means just about anyone anywhere - whether you know them or not.  Even whole masses of them at once.  People communicating with people is more than the lifeblood of society – it is now life itself.  The act of communication itself is paramount.  That does not necessarily mean actually connecting with another being. It is the self affirmation that has come to count above all else.  “I speak, therefore I am” is the idea behind the compulsion to express whatever is passing through our heads.  We know the phenomenon in our daily lives: a party of 6 with 4 (at least) talking at the same time.  Nothing learned but 6 gratified egos for having their share of ‘self expression’ time.  From bar to barber to broadcast studio, it is pretty much the same.

Cheaper than fighting?

"The strategy has been designed to encourage rank and file Taliban to stop fighting and instead return to their communities with “dignity and honour”.

More than 2,700 insurgents have been reintegrated into mainstream Afghan society since October 2010, with 800 now described as “showing interest in leaving the Taliban”.

Of those, about 90 are from Helmand, where nearly 400 British troops have been killed and more than 5,000 injured.

The reintegration policy has already produced some startling results. In northern Afghanistan, about 900 former Taliban have left the insurgency and violence has decreased by 30 per cent."  Telegraph

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Yes!  Yes!  Do it and do it seriously.  This worked in iraq.  Don't tell me it's harder to do in Afghanistan.  That's what we pay all those dozens of smart people generals for.  We pay them to do the hard things.  As the writer says, the prospect of death from NATO forces when combined with actual hard money to stop fighting is likely to be a very potent weapons system. 

Why should British, American and all the other kinds of NATO soldiers have to kill any more of these people than is completely unavoidable?  This tactic will not eliminate the leadership of the Taliban conglomeration but it may well weaken the groups enough to make the leaders vulnerable in a number of ways.

In addition we should take up an idea I "floated" a while back.  We should buy the opium crop and either re-purpose it into useful medications or destroy it.  This would take away a great deal of the money from the Taliban.

I can hear it now.  We can't do that!  That would be rewarding sin!  We can't forgive people who killed NATO soldiers!.  No?  Why not?  This is war.  We forgave the Germans and the Vietnamese communists.  We even forgave the British.

Let's get real about this war!  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8901151/Taliban-paid-100-a-month-to-stop-fighting.html

Bon Voyage, "Curiosity"

A great project. Come August we will see if they get the thing down to the surface in running order. The re-entry vehicle will burn its way down to 200 miles an hour, then parachute drag down to 50 then a self contained rocket with the rover on a tether will lower it to the surface. Let us pray. pl

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/11/26/mars-rover-liftoff.html

The Memogate Brouhaha (FB Ali)

All of Pakistan has recently been watching with rapt attention the twists and turns of an unfolding scandal that the country’s febrile media has happily termed ‘Memogate’. The ruling party, in full defensive mode, watches apprehensively even as it bobs and weaves with every disclosure. The opposition parties gleefully plot and maneouvre to gain maximum advantage, while the generals nervously button and unbutton their holsters. The privileged upper class pauses in its living of the good life, and ordinary people forget their problems and miseries for a while, as the breathless TV anchors report each new development. Even the Pakistani Taliban declared a ceasefire, perhaps the better to follow the unfolding story without such distractions as setting off bombs or laying ambushes.

Deluded lab rats - that's us.

Faute de mieux (that's French), I watched the linked program below. Barry Lando apparently thinks that the Chinese, Pakistanis, Iranians, Iraqi Shia, Saudis, etc. have made fools of the United States while wandering the corridors of a maze. This is what, allegory? Extended metaphor? It seems to imply that these people and governments are not purposeful, and that they are not reacting to what they have correctly perceived to be the inherent "intellectual" weaknesses of Americans taken as a whole. Oh, yes, I left out the Israelis and their 5th column. My bad.

I would argue that none of this could have happened if the marketing of pop culture had not become the major motif (Ruritanian?) of American life. Today we hear politicians describe their pursuit of constitutional office as a process of "branding" and "packaging" people who are; wavy haired, moneyed, pretty, minoritied, etc. through a process which assumes that selling government is like selling toothpaste.

Perhaps the political consultants are correct, but I would opine that such a theory can only work well in an atmosphere in which the electorate are so poorly informed and ignorant of basic history, civics (remember that?) geography, etc. that they can be sold dog s--t for toothpaste if the marketing campaign is well enough funded.

Barry Lando - a new correspondent

Barry Lando has asked me to post a few of his papers by way of introduction.  These appeared this week in a couple of the bigger blogs.  These overlap a bit but are worth a read.  pl

Download China and Iran1

Download Gulf OIl and China blog2

Download Gulf OIl and China's waynofn

The Game of Kings: A Bit More on Iran

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

As we move past the Thanksgiving holiday into December, and as the Republican primaries lurch ever closer, we can be assured that the reverbations from the recent IAEA report about Iran's nuclear program will continue.  While some of this will be part of the posturing by candidates either in the Republican presidential primaries or in the lead up to the House and Senate campaigns in 2012, some of it will be the result of the US's responses to the report and the challenge that Iran presents, as well as how other major international and regional actors respond.  As the US attempts to ratchet up the economic pressure through new sanctions, Russia, a major trading partner of Iran, as well as a major player in Iran's nuclear development program, has indicated that it opposes them.  It is, perhaps, an appropriate time to step back and reflect on the actual strategic challenge that Iran's nuclear program presents to the US.

There are two key questions we have to ask in regard to any potential response towards Iran's nuclear development program: 1) will US action towards Iran actually prevent them from pursuing and/or acquiring a nuclear weapons capability? and 2) will US action towards Iran to prevent them from pursuing and/or acquiring a nuclear weapons capability change the Iranian government's behavior in the manner that we want?  Looking at possible options we can reasonably rule out further and/or increased sanctions.  To be blunt they have not worked.  While they initially inflicted some pain on Iran that gave way long ago and Iran has managed to survive and grow despite them.  While I am sure I am about to give a whole lot of people serious agita, now might be a good time to consider what might happen if we actually tried doing something else like pursuing a serious diplomatic initiative.  Since trying to lock down and close off Iran has not actually worked, perhaps opening up trade and travel to Iran just might.  While there is certainly no gaurantee of success, continuing to do what we are doing is, to paraphrase Professor Einstein, crazy.  I can not help but think that the ability of diasporan Iranians to travel home, for Iranians to travel to other places including the US with less hassle and difficulty, for scientific, professional, and business exchanges to occur can not but have a positive effect.  At some point we can not keep pointing to the stick and saying it is a carrot.

Egyptian Army to Mobs - Not so fast!

"Maj. Gen. Mukhtar el-Mallah, another council member, told the news conference that the military would not relinquish power because to do so would be “a betrayal of the trust placed in our hands by the people.” Egyptians must focus on the elections, he said, not on street protests.

“We will not relinquish power because of a slogan-chanting crowd,” he said, according to The Associated Press, “Being in power is not a blessing. It is a curse. It’s a very heavy responsibility.”" NY Times

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Mufaga'a! (Surprise!) The generals are not going to surrender power to the mobs. How many times must I point this out? To do so would be suicidal and would create a chaos in Egyps from which just about anything could emerge. The February revolt was supposed to be about the downfall of the Mubarak capitalist clique. It was disguised as being secularist and liberal. This disguise was mainly foisted upon the worldby the ever dim-witted group think of the MSM. Now the truth is revealed. The aim of this continuing revolt is the overthrow of society as it has been in Egypt. Stand by for more fireworks.

Yemen is quite different. There will be no serious attempt for widespread social change there. The Zeidi tribals will emerge controlling the situation as they always do. Why? It is becasue rthey are the baddest "mothers" in the Yemen.

Syria? Watch the Turks. pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/25/world/middleeast/generals-in-egypt-offer-apology-for-violent-clashes.html

Thanksgiving Dinner at "Bastille" today.

Happy Thanksgiving 

Thursday, November 24, 2011 

First Course 

Pumpkin soup 

Frisee salad, lardons, 60 degree egg, croutons 

Terrine de foie de volailles 

Half dozen of local VA Oysters on half shell 

Entree 

Amish County Turkey duo 

Smith Meadow Farm Beef Rib roast, 

Olive oil poached Cod, saffron broth, 

Duo of Papa Weaver Farm Pork 

Cheese 

Trio of Artisanal cheeses 

Dessert 

Pumpkin Bavaroise 

Valrhona Manjari chocolate Marquise

Sharia Law is Not Closer to America than it Appears... Part VI: Thanksgiving Edition

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Apparently Pam Geller has decided that Islam is invading America one Butterball turkey at a time! (warning - clicking on this link will expose you directly to Ms. Geller's ravings.  If there were 144 of her, we would have gross stupidity or is that a gross of stupidity?)  This reminds me of when a bunch of white supremacists, neo-Nazis, and their fellow travellers had a collective freak out back in the 1980s when they discovered that the U within O and capital K markings on many food products in the US signify kosher**.  There was a lot of fringe and extremist types screaming and yelling and posting on primitive internet bulletin boards about the Zionist and/or Jewish conspiracy to take over America one snack cake at a time.  Personally I'm a fan of a naturally basting fresh turkey, one of which I will be dry rubbing, stuffing with home made cornbread stuffing, and roasting tomorrow AM, then slicing after appropriate standing time and removal of said stuffing, bedding down in its own juices, and then reheating it in them as I roast the asparagus and bake the sweet potatoes before serving, but I might have to go buy a Butterball just because it will give Ms. Gellers the vapors!  (I saw this at multiple places, but I guess the hat tip should go to Tbogg - just for the snark!).

A Happy and Healthy (and for those travelling) Safe Thanksgiving to all here at SST and to our gracious host!

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

** The U within an O is the certification mark, or heksha, of the Oscherwitz Union, while the capital K is the certification mark for kosher.  Either of these on a packaged food item means that it is certified kosher.

Is Bachmann revealing secrets?

My wife insisted that I watch all of the Blitzer moderated 2 hour foreign policy debate  last night.  Wolf did a great job.  Michele Bachmann is a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.  In that capacity she receives briefings at the highest levels of classification from officials of the IC and State Department.  She has access not because she has a clearance but because of her constitutional office.  This is a separation of powers issue.  It seemed to me that Bachmann said a lot o things during the debate that were the result of the briefings that she has been given.  I won't repeat them for the obvious reason.  She is probably immune from prosecution but it should be clear that classified information should not be used as an instrument with which to beat one's political opponents.  pl

National Journal - 22 November, 2011

How Should the U.S. Begin its 'Pivot' to Asia and the Pacific? - National Security Experts.

pl

The "300" in Iraq

"'There will be a U.S. military presence. The Office of Security Cooperation (OSC), operating under the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, will have several hundred military personnel, and at least an equal number or more U.S. contractors, who will work with Iraqi security forces. Ongoing negotiations with Iraq about OSC activities will determine exact staffing numbers."  Pincus

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The "300." that is what they are calling the several hundred active duty military people who will be left in Iraq.  There will be the dozen or so in the Defense Attache Office of the embassy, the US Marine security guard for the embassy, just a handfull of marines.  The largest number wil be in the security assistance office (whatever they call it).  This office will be subordinate to the theater (COCOM) commnder at USCENTCOM.  They will train Iraqis and will be altogether dependent on the Iraqis for their security.  "Stranger passing by..."  The civilians in the mission will be in the same position.

This is remarkably like the situation we left behind in VN in the spring of 1973.  The terms of the armistice in VN in '72 allowed the US to keep similar numbers in country attached to the embassy.  If memory serves there were about 2,000.  They continued training and advising the South Vietnamese forces.  The North Vietnamese Army sat out in the woods hear the Cambodian and Laotian borders.  This situation persisted for about two years until the US Congress forbade any further aid for the South Vietnamese, ever.  The North Vietnamese then attacked and captured all the major towns within a few weeks.

The Pacific Ocean was nearby in 1975.  A Non-Combatant Evacuation operation was possible.  As I have said before it is a long way to the sea from central Iraq.

Good luck to them all.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/usmilitary-presence-will-continue-in-iraq/2011/11/18/gIQAJAWBjN_story.html

Turkey is looking south

"In his harshest words yet, Recep Tayyip Ergodan reminded Assad of the bloody end of the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, as well as past dictators, including Adolf Hitler.

“For the welfare of your own people and the region, just leave that seat,” Erdogan said in a televised speech.

“If you want to see someone who has fought until death against his own people, just look at Nazi Germany, just look at Hitler, at Mussolini, at Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania,” he said. “If you cannot draw any lessons from these, then look at the Libyan leader who was killed just 32 days ago in manner none of us wished and who used the same expression you used,” referring to Assad’s promise to keep fighting." Telegraph

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All the building blocks of geopolitics are moving around in the Greater Middle East. Saudi Arabia is exerting itself and reaching toward China and Pakistan. Iran seeks a role as perhaps the strongest, purist, cleverist, etc. The Turks dream of bygone glory.

Old Turkey hands like Phil Geraldi may well have a different view but IMO Bashar Assad would be wise to listen to Erdogan and start preparing for a dignified retirement somewhere nice, pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8906532/Syria-Turkish-prime-minister-calls-for-Assad-to-resign.html

Color Scheme

So do you like the white on black or not?  pl

Egypt - I told you so...

"Police backed by army troops fired salvos of gas canisters and charged demonstrators in the square as darkness fell on Sunday, temporarily sending protesters fleeing. Demonstrators brandished spent shotgun cartridges and bullet casings, although police denied using live rounds.

Security forces burned down banners and Internet clips, which could not be independently checked, showed police beating protesters with sticks, pulling them by the hair and, in one case, dumping what appeared to be a corpse on piles of rubbish." J-Post

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Is it clear now that the Egyptian officer corps intend to continue ruling the country as they have since 1952? Is it clear? There will be a place for theMB and other Salafists in the "new Egypt." That place will be in prison camps in the western and eastern deserts. Nasser was one of these offcers. There was a place for communists in his Egypt. It was called "prison."

University students should be very careful of their actions. Students of the American University in Cairo should be exceptionally careful.

Some fool in the streets screamed today that Mubarak is still running the government. I would respond - No, but you might as well kill him to make yourself feel fulfilled. pl

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=246448

Happy Thanksgiving - 2011

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/

The Sunday Newsies

Ehud Barak was interviewed today by Zakariya. FZ did his best to press the Defense Minister on the subject of Israel's intentions toward Iran and quickly hit a stone wall. Actuall,y Barak stonewalled him on several subjects. The only thing that EB wanted to talk about was the coming fall of the Syrian government. It is tempting to think that Barak had some hidden purpose in appearing on TV this morning. Was there some message in his surly refusal to say anything about the Israeli cabinet's attitude toward Teheran? Perhaps not, perhaps he just likes the attention.

The Super-Committee. What a bunch of bums on both sides! It is clear now that neither side expected anything to come from this three month farce. I doubt if the sequestrations will ever take place. They can rescind them in the lame duck session after next year's election. The real struggle next year will be over the Bush tax structure which will end 1 January, 2013 unless renewed.

The CERN FTL issue is probably the really big story of the coming year. pl

 

Open Thread - 19 November

pl

CERN repeats FTL test

"The initial series of experiments, comprising 15,000 separate measurements spread out over three years, found that the neutrinos arrived 60 billionths of a second faster than light would have, travelling unimpeded over the same distance.

The idea that nothing can exceed the speed of light in a vacuum forms a cornerstone in physics - first laid out by James Clerk Maxwell and later incorporated into Albert Einstein's theory of special relativity."  BBC

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OK, science boffins, what are the implications if the CERN data proves correct?  pl

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15791236

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_light

End of the Road for the Assad Regime? FB Ali

The present regime in Syria has been in power for over 40 years since its founding by Hafez al-Assad in 1970. His son Bashar succeeded him in 2000. However, it seems that the family’s reign is now nearing its end.

Many people and forces have been working to achieve this goal. A sizable portion of the Syrian people, disenchanted with the regime and enthused by the Arab Spring, began protest demonstrations against the government, but these were harshly repressed. This internal unrest encouraged foreign actors to move in seeking to advance their own agendas that, though differing in their ultimate goals, all required the end of the regime and the firm control that it exercised over the country.

"Morning Joe," just another agitprop tool.

This morning "the gang;" Mika, Barnicle, Meacham and Haas had a great time reviling a fuzzy faced Iranian who was dumb enough to walk into the ambush.  This fellow sounded off with the predictable anti-American, anti-Israeli "party line."  At the same time he managed to say that although Iran thinks Israel is a bad idea (like Belgium?) Iran would accept any deal that the Palestinians made.  "Ah! You see! He does not accept Israel's right to exist!  You see!"  It did not matter at all that the the man had just said that Iran would like to see Jews, Christians and Muslims live in peace together. 

The point? 

Perception management is so successful that we Americans just don't listen anymore.  pl

PS  Does anyone remember that the US refused to recognize various countries, i.e.; China, or Vietnam for decades at a time. 

HARPER: IS WAR AGAINST IRAN ALREADY UNDERWAY?

The Obama National Security Council has been reviewing three options on how to deal with Iran in the aftermath of the IAEA report.  From sources in the government, it appears that a decision has already been made, and operations have been underway that constitute a low-intensity war against the Iranian Republic, aimed, in some government officials minds, at provoking an Iranian reaction and a possible pretext for a much bigger war.
 
The three options reviewed by the NSC are:
 
1.  A new diplomatic initiative by the P5+1:   This option has been largely discounted and rejected.  When Israeli PM Netanyahu began his threats of preemptive attacks on Iran prior to the release of the IAEA report, a plan worked out between Hillary Clinton, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and German officials, to use the IAEA report to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table was killed.  There was already deep skepticism that Iran would resume negotiations in good faith, given the intense factional battle now underway within the Iranian leadership.  None of the contending factions would wish to be labeled "soft on the US," so the chances of a resumption of talks were already presumed to be near zero.

Tourtieres a Noel

This savory meat pie is easy to make and wondrous at midnight at a party on a cold winter's night.  It is even better warmed up the next day.  Babak, you can make this with any kind of meat.  pl

http://www.theworldwidegourmet.com/recipes/tourtiere-quebec-meat-pie/

Cordesman on Iraq and Afghanistan

"Yet Iraq is already a grand strategic failure. The US went to war for the wrong reasons, let Iraq slide into a half decade of civil war, and failed to build an effective democracy and base for Iraq’s economic development. Its tactical victories – if they last – did little more than put an end to a conflict it help create, and the US failed to establish anything like the strategic partnership it sought.

The US invasion did bring down a remarkably unpleasant dictatorship, but at cost of some eight years of turmoil and conflict, some 5,000 US and allied lives and 35,000 wounded, and over 100,000 Iraqi lives. The Congressional Research Service estimates that the dollar cost of the war to the US alone is over $823 billion through FY2012, and SIGIR estimates that the US and its allies will have spent some $75 billion on aid – much of it with little lasting benefit to Iraq.

The outcome in Afghanistan and Pakistan now seems unlikely to be any better. While any such judgments are subjective, the odds of meaningful strategic success have dropped from roughly even in 2009 to 4:1 to 6:1 against at the end of 2011. It is all very well for senior US officials to discuss ―fight, talk, and build,‖ and for creating a successful transition before the US and ISAF allies withdraw virtually all of their combat troops and make massive cuts in the flow of outside money to Afghanistan. The US, however, has yet to present a credible and detailed plan for transition that shows the US and its allies can achieve some form of stable, strategic outcome in Afghanistan that even approaches the outcome of the Iraq War." 

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There is war and then there is dumb war.  These have been dumb wars, poorly conceived and poorly executed.  pl

https://csis.org/files/publication/111115_Afghanistan_at_End_2011.pdf 

 

UW in Syria

PL - "Perhaps UW would work in Syria?" 

TTG - "Don't see why not. I heard reports of units of former soldiers taking on the Syrian army. Someone should teach them how to fight like guerrillas before they all get killed."

This brief email exchange last night, and Colonel Lang's suggestion to write something up, spurred me to do some reading on the Syrian situation. I know precious little beyond what I see in the headlines, but what I'm seeing, I like… especially the news article that Colonel Lang just pointed out. 

VOA reporting out of Cairo today breaks down the three main Syrian opposition groups and describes their similarities and differences. "The Arab League's recent ultimatum for a withdrawal of security forces, the release of jailed opponents and dialogue has some activists calling it a strategic move that highlights the Syrian government's plight. Cairo-based activist Mohamed Aloush says if the regime implements the Arab League plan, it is finished - if it does not implement the plan, it is finished as well." 

Syrian opposition groups agree on one thing… the status quo cannot hold. However, they have different ideas about how to break the status quo. "The National Coordination Committee, led by Hassan Abdul-Azim, is a mainly Syria-based group. It hopes to persuade the government to reform through dialogue and building civil institutions. The Turkey-based Syrian National Council's supporters prefer the group's rejection of dialogue with the government of Assad and just want him to leave. Supporter Abdel Kader of the opposition Syria Media Office says the Syrian National Council represents the "Syrian street," and that can be seen in a recent rally in its support, which he says drew millions of people."

"The Free Syrian Army, made up of some of the estimated 10,000 military defectors, was initially formed to protect civilians, but some members have recently gone on the attack." These are the people I was referring to in my answer to Colonel Lang. Turkey has actually set up a refugee camp for deserters from the Syrian army. "The idea of armed resistance is gaining traction among some government opponents.  Activist Taha Khelo has been keeping vigil outside Arab League headquarters in Cairo. Khelo calls for a no-fly zone, to keep the Syrian military under control, and the creation of a buffer zone for civilians as well as military defectors from which they can attack government forces."

This sounds a lot like Libya, but Syria is certainly not Libya. Russia and China will not fall for the imposition of a no-fly zone over Syria. I also doubt NATO is willing to foot the bill for another no-fly zone. Perhaps the biggest drawback to a no-fly zone is the impression (and fact) that a no-fly zone is just another form of Western invasion. A NATO led no-fly zone would be too big, too noisy and too photogenic to ignore. It drowns out the real sacrifices and accomplishments of the rebels. This is what happened in Libya and an OpEd piece by Ramzy Baroud today in the Eurasia Review warns of a Western hijacking of the Syrian uprising. 

A better course is the UW approach of sabotage, subversion and guerrilla warfare. The Syrian rebels can be armed and trained to create their own no-fly zone. Didn't we do this with the mujahideen heros in Afghanistan? The Syrian rebels should also be trained to use guerrilla tactics rather than taking on Syrian security forces toe to toe. Target government lines of communication. Ambush fuel and supply convoys. Be patient. Gradually wear down the government forces and allow the opposition groups to coalesce and strengthen. Turkey's cooperation in this UW approach would be needed. Keeping the footprint to no more than a hundred or so SF trainers and advisors, preferably working with the Turkish military, would draw less international attention that a no-fly zone and, I would argue, be more effective. I stick by my initial answer to Colonel Lang.    

TTG

 

Army Deserters fight Assad in Syria

"Dozens of soldiers and security forces were gunned down by suspected army defectors in southern Syria, a deadly ambush that comes as President Bashar Assad increasingly appears unable to manage the crisis, activists said Tuesday.

Monday's hours-long clash in the southern province of Daraa came on a particularly bloody day in Syria, with as many as 90 people killed across the country. The brazen attack by the army defectors suggested a new confidence among troops who have sided with the protesters and highlighted the potential for an armed confrontation to escalate."  foxnews

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How many of you see this as opportunity rather than something to wring your hands over?  pl

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/11/15/syrian-soldiers-killed-in-clash-with-defectors/#ixzz1dnCZiz4N

 

"Iran’s Ambition" by Richard Sale

By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s  Secret Wars 

A few years ago,  I was a patient of a Dr. Klein. He was a kindly, thoughtful man, Jewish, and he one day took me aside and asked me, on what moral grounds the United States was trying to deny Iran’s  developing its nuclear weapons?

He said that he thought that Iran’s desire was not depraved, but a natural aspiration.   That exchange got me thinking.

Rivalry, jealousy acquisitiveness are powerful emotions that do most of the world’s work. They are little engines that know no rest.  The instinct to imitate is a key human instinct. Any display of individual ability provokes a profound disquiet on the part of others who won’t rest until they display an equal superiority.  There is an enormous propensity for people to speak, walk, and behave like others, often without any consciousness of doing so.   In large masses of people, this emotion can produce panics, slaughter, episodes of violence which only the rarest of human beings is able to withstand.

"Welcome, President Romney" Michael Brenner

From Counterpunch.  pl

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/10/20/welcome-president-romney/

A variety of Iran Items

I was busy yesterday doing a prime rib roast on the back garden rotisserie.  I bought it at Crabill's Meats in Tom's Brook in the Shenandoah Valley.  It was marvelous.  The guests did it proud and praise the lord there are no leftovers.  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8886543/Israel-refuses-to-tell-US-its-Iran-intentions.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1109/Iran-nuclear-report-Why-it-may-not-be-a-game-changer-after-all

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/china-backs-russia-on-iran-s-nuclear-program-1.394820

"The Nuclear Expert Who Never Was" Scott Ritter

"I can’t say for certain when Albright became “Doctor” Albright. A self-described “physicist,” he allows the term to linger, as he does the title “former U.N. inspector,” in order to create the impression that he possesses a certain gravitas. David Albright holds a master of science degree in physics from Indiana University and a master of science in mathematics from Wright State University. I imagine that this résumé permits him to assign himself the title physicist, but not in the Robert Oppenheimer/Edward Teller sense of the word. Whatever physics work Albright may or may not have done in his life, one thing is certain: He has never worked as a nuclear physicist on any program dedicated to the design and/or manufacture of nuclear weapons. He has never designed nuclear weapons and never conducted mathematical calculations in support of testing nuclear weapons, nor has he ever worked in a facility or with an organization dedicated to either.  

At best, Albright is an observer of things nuclear. But to associate his sub-par physics pedigree with genuine nuclear weapons-related work is, like his self-promotion as a “former U.N. weapons inspector,” disingenuous in the extreme. His lack of any advanced educational training as a nuclear physicist, combined with his dearth of practical experience with things nuclear, is further exacerbated by his astounding assumption of the title Doctor. In 2007 Albright received an honorary doctorate of humane letters from Wright State University. This honorary award is a recognition that should never be belittled, but it in no way elevates Albright to the status of one who has undergone the formal educational training and has actually earned a doctorate, especially in the demanding field of nuclear physics. While I cannot find any evidence of Albright promoting his honorary title in a manner that indicates direct fraud on his part (i.e., falsely claiming to be a Ph.D. in physics), there are far too many instances where he is referred to by those who interview him as being both “Dr. Albright” and a “physicist” that the uninformed reader might be misled into believing that the two were somehow connected."  truthdig

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I first met Albright when the supposed but non-existant Iraqi nuclear weapons program was under discussion.  His credentials were unchallenged.  Perhaps they should have been.  Where does ISIS get its money?  pl

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080626_the_nuclear_expert_who_never_was/

More on Ms. Rubin: WaPo Double Standard Edition

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

The Washington Post's Ombudsman, in an email exchange with a reader (that the ombudsman has not denied, just refused to comment on), seems to pretty clearly indicate that a clear double standard was in play.  If Ms. Rubin had retweeted remarks that had made the same or similar assertions about Jews and/or Israelis, or called for them to killed, then it was quite possible that Ms. Rubin would have been fired.  This has led to a number of interesting remarks, from, among others Glenn Greenwald, Dr. Farley at LGM (who gets the hat tip as I saw it there first), and from the King of Snark Tbogg (which is where Farley seems to have found it).

What I find the most interesting about all of this is both the double standard (not that it surprises me that it exists), but that it seems to always be applied to analysts, pundits, commentators, and in some cases elected and appointed officials (often who seem to revolve between being analysts, pundits, and appointed officials) that not only seem to have a consistent track record of being wrong about what they are remarking on, but also get the shield portion of the double standard: they are never hurt by the remarks.  It does not seem to matter how wrong they are, how ill informed, how bigoted, they just seem to continuously be rewarded with another fellowship or think tank gig or staff position or column or tv or radio slot.  I think that of all the things that future generations, whether of Americans or of other nationalities, conclude about us is that we have willingly become ignorant.  Not only would the founders and framers be dismayed by this, but many of the subsequent generations of Americans - elite, notable, or not, as well.

* Adam L. Silverman, PhD is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Vietnam in HD - History Channel

The History Channel ran this six hour production this week. I was in what should properly be called the Second Indochina War.  I was there for two years.  I was not a REMF.  To some extent I am still there. 

I salute my brothers, those of us still around.  This film is a beginning of justice, but just a beginning.

The single most obvious deficiency in the production was any mention at all of the massive and persistent COIN effort waged at various levels of intensity for ten years.

Another was the early fatal political decision by the United States to accept French re-colonization of Indochina after WW2.  The USS through OSS had a good relationship with the Viet Minh and Ho Chi Minh.  the Japanese had dispossessed France of governance in SE Asia.  A French expeditionary force had to be landed to suppress Ho's government.  The Truman Administration accepted that in the interest of assembling a coalition in Europe to face the USSR, then engaged in taking over eastern Europe.  From that error all else followed.

Oh, yes, if you run into me.  Don't thank for my service.  pl

Dennis Ross is going home?

""Obviously, there is still work to do but I promised my wife I would return to government for only two years and we both agreed it is time to act on my promise," Ross said in a brief resignation statement.

Ross played a central role in United States efforts at achieving a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians since the early 1990s in the administration of George Bush Sr. He later served as special Middle East envoy under former US president Bill Clinton."  jpost

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Ross made it very clear a few years ago when he accepted chairmanship of some Zionist board in Jerusalem that he was doing it because he had to serve "his people," the Jews.  Well, if that is the case why has he been allowed to dictate the terms of American policy in areas in which the interests of "his people" were engaged?  Has this not been a conflict of interest?

I first knew this character in the '80s when he and HT were a dynamic duo in the NSC staff.  This was during the Iran-Iraq War.  IMO, the two of them, in their US government capacities relentlessly sought to advance the interests of Israel's covert ally, Iran.  it seemed quite obvious at the time.  Israel was busily engaged in those days in finding spare parts for US manufactured Iranian equipment.  The Israeli desire to do that eventually led to US sales to Iran in the Iran-Contra Affair.

Where will Dennis go now?  Will he go to his real home by the eastern Mediterrranean?  I doubt it.

Why is he leaving?  He lost the argument to Panetta, the JCS and IC.  pl  

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=245150

Veteran's Day - 2011

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/

"QUESTIONS FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ON THEIR ECONOMIC PROGRAMS"

By Robert K. Lifton

Listening to  the economic programs presented by the Republican candidates in their debates, I can’t reconcile them with the facts I have experienced in my own life. It would be very helpful to me, and I would think to other voters, to better understand the factual basis for these programs.  Here are a few of the matters I  hope the Republicans will explain, where their approach just doesn’t jibe with my experience.

The Republican program for bolstering the economy and creating jobs essentially focuses on two approaches: eliminating regulations and reducing taxes. Undoubtedly, there are some government regulations that are not necessary or not effective and even some regulations that may curtail a small number of jobs. I cannot understand, however, how getting rid of those regulations, which, by the way, will also eliminate the jobs of the regulators, will charge up the economy and create the millions of jobs necessary to significantly reduce unemployment and give employment to new entrants into the job market.  Furthermore, I also cannot understand how at a time when the nation is trying to reduce deficits and debt that lowering taxes on the wealthy will create jobs.

Some of the Folks that Always Seem to Get the US Into Trouble

* Adam L. Silverman, PhD

Given some of the recent posts and remarks about drumbeats pertaining to Iran, advisors to presidential candidates, the quality of forein policy advice, bloodthirsty columnists and bloggers, I thought it was appropriate to remind everyone of the public service that the New Hampshire Gazette is performing by maintaining the Chickenhawk Hall of Shame.  The Chickenhawk Hall of Shame is intended to enshrine:

"When an American male (or an especially belligerent female) makes the challenging transition from late adolescence into early adulthood, he is faced with many decisions. One certain, specific combination of choices will result in his becoming a chickenhawk: choosing to “support” war, while also choosing not to serve in the military. His motto becomes: “Let’s you and him go fight; I’ll hold your coat.”

Depending on external circumstances, such an individual may become one of three varieties of chickenhawk:
• If there is no draft, and the nation is at peace, the individual becomes a Common Chickenhawk;
• If there is a draft, and the nation is at peace, the individual becomes a Chickenhawk First Class;
• If the there is a draft, and the nation is at war, the individual becomes a Chickenhawk First Class with Distinguished Fleeing Cross.

We currently have 154 Chickenhawks listed in our database. Here they are, listed alphabetically. Click here to see them listed by date of birth."

Click on over and check out the members of the 101st Chairborne Division...

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Some Overdue Thoughts on Iraq

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Several weeks ago, in regards to some correspondence between COL Lang and myself, he asked me to make sure I wrote some of it up for SST.  The some of it pertains to Iraq, specifically to the final, official announcement that yes, the US military will be leaving Iraq on the last day of 2011 and that is now final and non-negotiable.  I asked for a couple of weeks to address this so that the post would not become an essay length screed.  Not that some folks do not deserve to be called out for the damage they have done by committing strategic malpractice, strategic malpractice that cost a lot of good Americans, Brits, Georgians (we had a Georgian Battalion assigned to our BCT), and, of course, Iraqis their lives.  And it is in this vein, strategic malpractice, that I want to really address the soon to be reached end of the US military presense in Iraq; especially as many of the mistakes in forethought, understanding, and planning, not to mention the people responsible for them or who enabled those responsible, threaten to set us up for a rerun regarding Iran.

In April, Tom Ricks (full disclosure: I guest blog for Tom several times a year) ran a piece at his Foreign Policy site about the need to begin negotiations for keeping some US troops in Iraq after the date for withdrawl agreed to in the Security Agreement negotiated by the Bush (43) Administration in 2008.  In his post, Tom quotes Ambassador Crocker discussing how the US might negotiate some extension beyond/despite the 2008 agreement.  Several days later Tom posted my response to his post on the topic.  In it I made it clear that while we might be able to keep a small group of security force advisors in Iraq, based on an agreement that was separate from the security agreement, there was no chance for any meaningful, large scale extension.  The reasons for this are the reasons that hit us in the face over the past several months as the Obama Administration could not move the Iraqis off of the idea that US military personnel, should an extension be granted, would not receive immunity from prosecution: they do NOT want us there as they have been waiting to settle things between themselves once we leave or further consolidate power or not lose power.  

Fire Jennifer Rubin

"or if it was an explicit endorsement of Abrams' call for murdering Palestinians, whom she described as "unmanned animals" and "child-sacrificing savages." Rubin replied matter-of-factly that it was the latter: she supported Abrams' message. According to Pexton, "But in this case Rubin told me that she did agree with Abrams. Rubin said that she admires Abrams, has quoted her a lot, thinks she’s an excellent writer and endorsed the sentiment behind the Abrams blog post.""  Blumenthal

---------------------------------------------

I guess this woman can find a job in Israel.  pl

http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/gadfly/despite-major-rebuke-washington-posts-jennifer-rubin-endorses-slaughtering-palestinians

Kasich defeated - How sad.

Someone has described John Kasich as "thuglike."  Nah!  He is too much of a phony gutter rat to deserve that.  I have met a lot of "small bore" egomaniacal politicians. Kasich is right at the top of my list.

Years ago, a friend was so good as to suggest me for a speaking engagement in which I shared the platform with Kasich.  His speaking performance was that of the typical chicken hawk with no military service beating the war drum for young people in desert camouflage to kill and maim in pursuit of what proved to be a false cause.  He cared  not and was unconcerned about the possibility.  His slick demagoguery was calculated to inflame a rural, ill informed audience rather than to educate.

He should go back to ward healing in Clevelend or wherever it was.  pl

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9QSUTD80.htm

The Last Samurai a review by Alan Farrell

Directed by Edward Zwick.  Starring… You’re kidding?  You don’t know?  Well, everybody else does!   …along with Ken Watanabe (See if you can guess who’s he playing), Billy Connolly (See if you can guess who’s he playing), and a bunch of Japanese guys with funny hairdos but whose names you can’t hope to pronounce. 

Movies with “Last” in the title:  Last Man Standing; Last of the Red Hot Lovers; Last of the Blonde Bombshells, The Last Picture Show (By the bye, what was “the last picture show”?* ); Last of the Mohicans (By the way, who was “the last of the Mohicans”?**); About Last Night; The Last Mile; The Last Tango in Paris; The Last Temptation of Christ; The Last Time I Saw Paris; Save the Last Dance for Me;  The Last Train from Gun Hill (By the bye, when was “the last train from Gun Hill”?***); L’année dernière à Marienbad (variously pronounced); Clash of the Titans; Class of ’44 (Forty-Four); Blast from the Past; LA Story. 

Dances with Samurai.  See if this sounds familiar:  scruffy guy, weary of war—the Civil War specifically—and who’s seen too much, stumbles out West (waaaaaaaay the heck out West), meets up with some roughies, whom he takes to heart, and decides upon a last stand in their company amid hopeless odds against ironically… the forces of order!  Dances with Wolves?  Open Range?  Butch and Sundance?  Tootsie? 

Why is David Albright "pumping' the IAEA report?

"The IAEA conclusions in some ways match those of the two US National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on Iran in 2007 and earlier this year, which found that Iran had halted a weapons program in late 2003, and had made no decision to go for a bomb."  CSM

-------------------------

On the Newshour tonight Albright, somone I know and respect, spoke of this report and gave the general impression that Iranian research and design work on warheads has continued unabated since the Iranian government ordered a halt in 2003-4.

This CSM article says the opposite.  pl

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1108/Report-says-Iran-nuclear-weapons-work-continued-til-2009