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27 October 2011

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Basilisk

The "Great Game" is not dead, it's just changing players.

Jim Ticehurst

Strategic Moves..? Puts India in the Middle..
Next Year should be very Interesting ..as Alliances and
Deals are made all over the region ..Ports and Pipelines..but NO American Pie..

There are New Ways to Build Oriental Railroads ..Even 3,200 Mile Ones Underground.."How many Nukes Does China Have..?"WSJ Article by Brent Stephens..Oct 24th..

J

Colonel,

The world seems to becoming more.... -- what's a good term? Side-shifted.

Vacuums, vacuums, and more vacuums.

The beaver

Colonel

I thought that this was already a fait accompli as per this:
http://blogs.reuters.com/afghanistan/2011/05/26/in-pakistans-gwadar-port-chinese-whispers-grow/

http://www.chinapage.com/transportation/port/gwadar/gwadar-port.html

and the negotiations that were held between the two countries back in May.

William R. Cumming

Does not a Chinese company operate the Panama Canal and overseeing the expansion?

PirateLaddie

Oh, Hell --the Pakies have been bleating and getting puffed up about Gwadar since I lived in Karachi, 15 years ago. The program had made about zero progress when I was in I'bad about 5 years ago.
The Chinese will certainly use the site if it does them any good -- they are, after all, the closest thing to an "ally" Pakistan has, but the most valuable product to come out of Balouchistan is still the gift of the poppy coming across from Affie. To my doubting mind, THAT remains the most valuable trade good in the region.

Arun

A perceptive article by majorlyprofound:
http://majorlyprofound.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/pakistan-and-indonesia-are-different-countries/

Quote:

1. "Pakistan views herself as the ideological progeny of the Mughal empire, with an unfinished agenda of conquering the subcontinent. Abandoning this endeavour would mean accepting the eventual supremacy of India (simply due to her demographics and geographical area) which would be interpreted (in Pakistan) as the defeat of the religion itself. This is unthinkable. Furthermore, abandoning this identity of Pakistan is unthinkable. This is the first “circular” conundrum."

2. Peace between Pakistan and a strong Afghanistan is possible only with a strong Pakistan-India military alliance. In the absence of this alliance, peace is possible only with a destabilized Afghanistan. However an Afghanistan under perpetual Pakistani hegemony is possible only with strong economy in Pakistan, which is impossible without strong economic linkages with India. This is the second “circular” conundrum.

3. *Pakistan shares no common grounds or linkages with China on the basis of race, religion, values or geography (except of course the tiny strip of a perilous highway). The single point of convergence with China is the shared hostility towards India. Even there, both countries disagree about the magnitude of hostility. While China is content with an India that cannot drain her resources through economic and territorial challenges, Pakistan wishes to bet her very survival towards besting India."

J

Colonel,

One has to wonder how India will play in all of this. Will they draw closer to the Russian or U.S./Western spheres to offset the China-Pakistan one? I see India's natural magnetism with Russia would draw them closer to the Russian sphere versus our U.S./Western spheres one. But, who really knows. I guess that only Mumbai will know on that one.

Jane

So Pakistan wants to be pals with China? Unless or until China does something about the Pakistani safe havens for the Uighers?

I think I've seen this movie before.

William R. Cumming

Was not the Mughal Empire the vestiges of the MONGOL hordes?
Ghengis [sic] and Kubla [sic]Khan? A map of the MONGOL area of domination seems quite instructive as to Eurasia and S. Asia in detail. IMO of course. I understand the Chinese love old maps.

jr786

Anybody who's been up the Karakoram knows there's a Chinese presence up there. Hell, they built a lot of it, didn't they.

I used to see them all the time on the Pakistan side of the border, and that was 20 years ago, when you could get a shave and 3 buckets of hot water for a bath for a dollar. They've got their show to run, and we've got ours.

Babak Makkinejad

No it was not.

The Mughals claimed that, but it was another lie.

Babak Makkinejad

I think one can state that Pakistan is a vestige of the Mughal Empire of India.

I also disagree with paragraph 2: Afghanistan cannot be strong - that is not in the realm of possibility. That country was unified in the Person of the King; with the abolition of monarchy, any upstart could lay claim to power - as it happened and will happen after US leaves.

Pakistan will never be an alley of India - Indian establishment is too Hindu and too anti-Muslim to be able to perform such feats.

Furthermore, Pakistan & India in an Alliance begs the question: "To what purpose? Against China? For US?" It makes no sense.

Trade and commerce, however, are possible.

FB Ali

"Pakistan views herself as the ideological progeny of the Mughal empire, with an unfinished agenda of conquering the subcontinent".

Perceptive, Arun? Pakistan wanting to conquer the subcontinent? Really?

The subheading on that website you picked this up from is very apt: Goat droppings!

J

Brigadier,

Good call on the 'goat droppings'. LOL Have a good weekend.

William R. Cumming

From Wikipedia:
The name Mughal is derived from the original homelands of the Timurids, the Central Asian steppes once conquered by Genghis Khan and hence known as Moghulistan, "Land of Mongols". Although early Mughals spoke the Chagatai language and maintained some Turko-Mongol practices, they became essentially Persianized[7] and transferred the Persian literary and high culture[7] to India, thus forming the base for the Indo-Persian culture

Jim Ticehurst

My Impression...when you connect the dots of recent activity ..regime changes..potential regime changes and conflicts across north africa..the Med..the Middle east..and the Near east..I can see the outline of the Old Persian Empire.. Hmmm.

Back to the New Chinese Operated.(PSA International) Deep water Port in Gwadar ,Pakistan..Its already built and operational..even as a navy Base..It will be the PRC's 17 Deepwater Port located in Strategic Geographical Locations around the world.. It was begun in 2002 ..financed by China..with the claimed Objective of being able to Transport Saudi and Iranian Oil Overland to China..(Strategic Backup Plan)

At the Same Time..Pakistan's Primary Infrastructure Construction Group...The FWO..or "Frontier Works Organization.."..built a New Modern hiway from Gwadar to Karchi...The FWO was Created by the Pakistan Military in the 1960's along with Joint Support from China..It Combines the Nations Two Engineer Corps..

The Port at Gwadar.Pakistan is located 47 miles away from the Iranian Port at Chabahar nearby..with its connection to India..


Gwadar is located in Pakistans largest Providence..Balochistan..long Isolated..It has been Tribal..with little ties to the Government..and no economy until recently..The Baluchi rebels have resisted both Iran and Pakistan..and its reported they have gotten assistance from india..and the USA..but thier primary support has come from the Taliban..They have few weapons..

Iran accuses the USA of JUNDULLAH support.also..

Pakistan has begun many Devlepment projects in Balochistan..Hiways..Mirani Dam..for Farming and Hydro-electric Power...and Mining..The area was found to have some of the Largest Copper Reserves in the World...along with Gold Mines..There are an estimated $3 TRILLION Dollars worth of Minerals in Pakistan..

No wonder China Likes it there,,

Other Topics..Read that the Hagganis recently(October) urged the "TTP" to quite attacking the pakistan Government..

We are scheduled for a Withdrawl from Afghanistan by 2014
with surge forces oug by the end of this year..

The 6th Summit on Afghanistan..with be in Istabul..hosted by Turkey..on November 1st..

J

Brigadier,

How do you see India playing in all of this?

William R. Cumming

Apparently the Chinese already under corporate guise operate several ports on the MED! And watch the Chinese play in Libya where they will be used to check the voracious EU and US corporations now descending like vultures on the Libyan oil play.

Let's see how well democracy works out and whether there is power sharing with the rebels and peoples (there are many tribes) in Libya.

I think in the very short term much will be understood about the downfall of MQ and whether driven by oil or tribal rivalry or both or other things like his abuse of the his people.

turcopolier

WRC

Always with the oily business. What are the Libyans supposed to do with oil, smear it on camels asa cure for mange? Why should not western companies compete for the oil? pl

The beaver

WRC

Just google "Chinese string of pearls" - you will be edified!
Check what they've been doing along the coast of Yemen

Jim Ticehurst

Pakistan also tested a Missle this week capable of using Conventional and Nuke warheads...They are awaiting the delivery of 50 JF-17 Fighter planes with upgraded avionics...and six submarines from China..

Its Interesting to note..That along with the development of the Qwadar port..(Strategic Location..Gulf of Hormuz..) and Oil Pipeline
across Pakistan to China..That the Chinese are also negotiating with Columbia to build a 7.6 Billion Dollar Railroad to run 140 miles from Cartagena..Atlantic) ..to the Pacific ocean to Transport Coal for shipment to china..

China is also Egypts biggest Investor..and has been in negotations over the Suez Canal..

It will be Interesting to see If they continue to have a presence in Libya..

China is also very involved in buying African
Minerals an Commiditys..now in 20 African Nations..and having trained the Young President
of the DRC..(Congo) in Military Institutions in China when he lead the Rebel forces there..

Elections will be held there in November but the Opposition candidate just had his Campaign HQ Burned down.. The DRC..Congo is Rich in COBALT and has an estimated 14 Trillion Dollars worth of Mineral reserves..

securecare

China reestablishing ancient sea routes used by them up until the 1500s. Nothing surprising about that to those that are aware of history.

The Dragon is close to being fully awoken.

YT

Re: "Chinese string of pearls"

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/discussions/interviews/qa-with-robert-kaplan-on-china?page=show#

"The Chinese are building port projects in various points along the littoral.

But at the same time, they have no interest whatsoever, at least now, of making those into ports for the Chinese navy. And the reason is that they wouldn't be able to defend them against the Indian air force and navy. I think the Chinese are like us, they're moving ahead cautiously. They're looking around.

They're worried if they will have access to these ports even if they build them. Will they have the same problem as the Americans, where in a different political crisis they may not be able to use them?"


http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub721.pdf

[China’s development of these strategic geopolitical “pearls” has been nonconfrontational, with no evidence of imperial or neocolonial ambition. The development of the
“String of Pearls” may not, in fact, be a strategy explicitly guided by China’s central government.

Rather, it may be a convenient label applied by some in the United States to describe an element of China’s foreign policy. Washington’s perception of China’s de facto strategy may not be a view shared in Beijing, but the fact remains that economic benefits and diplomatic rhetoric have been an enticement for countries to facilitate China’s strategic ambitions in the region.]

Neil Richardson

YT wrote:
"But at the same time, they have no interest whatsoever, at least now, of making those into ports for the Chinese navy. And the reason is that they wouldn't be able to defend them against the Indian air force and navy. I think the Chinese are like us, they're moving ahead cautiously. They're looking around."

Based on my reading of open source discussions of their strategic planning, I think you're right. They'd like to go after low-hanging fruit.

"They're worried if they will have access to these ports even if they build them. Will they have the same problem as the Americans, where in a different political crisis they may not be able to use them?"

That's been discussed in a number of fora at CIISS in the last few years. In addition, one Chinese analyst threw out one consideration that I found interesting. He thought that CMCGO tended to prioritize NE Asia, SE Asia and then SW Asia in terms of their strategic calculus.(I certainly hope he's right) The strategic reality is that no matter what they try to do to secure access to ME resources, if the maritime choke points close, then there isn't much Pakistan or anyone else could do to alleviate the situation in an emergency. There are diplomatic counters that a potential adversary of PRC (Given who their Blue Army mimicks, it's fairly obvious) can use to make this a luxury at this point in PRC's development IMHO.

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