Flotilladamerung...

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

It looks like the next round of flotilla disputes between the Israelis and the Turks is just about ready to kick off. (Hat tip to Zandar) And this time, provided the reporting is correct, the Turks are not going to just send the relief ships.  Just one more problem set to worry about as Septemeber rolls on.  We should all keep good thoughts that cooler heads prevail and that, if they don't, Turkey doesn't invoke its Article 5 rights under the North Atlantic Treaty.  Then again, that might prove very, very interesting...

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Comments

[Kunuri]

Wow, I am the first, as I have been awaiting to see how my Gray Beard idols would address this very, very perplexing confrontation for me. No hope to find out anything from the shrill MSM, Turkish one included. I will wait for the comments and start a street level scan of how people see the whole thing here for your information.

[Charles I]

There sure seem to be a lot of upset applecarts.

I don't know why I am convinced that until fairly recently there was a quite close relationship between at least parts of the Israeli/Tukish military establishments, n/w/s/ Israeli involvement with the PKK and Kurdistan.

Am I completely wrong here? Is this a factor in current politics/ The General's arrests? Is the turkish military, whatever that is, ready willing able for conflict with Israel?

I'd look into this up but have limited connectivity and high hopes of latent lurking SST Turkish depth.

[William R. Cumming]

Only one event so far triggered ARTICLE FIVE and that was 9/11/01! Is that correct?

[blowback]

I seem to recall that Article 5 only applies to attacks that occur north of an east-west line that runs roughly through Lebanon. Was this defined many years ago for this eventuality?

[LeaNder]

I can't deny a degree of sympathy with Erdogan since his encounter with Peres in Davos.

[FB Ali]

Charles,

Glad to see your pirated ISP is still working! I'm no 'expert' on Turkey (and with Kunuri hovering around wouldn't claim to be one even if I was a bit of one), but here's my take on this.

By forcing the resignations of the previous high command Erdogan has brought the military under his civilian government. Now he is consolidating that by dealing with those elements in the military who are Israel-friendly (and, almost by definition, also secular, pro-West, anti-his policies).

Look up the % of Turks who are anti-Israel. That would mirror what the rank-and-file in the military feel, and the middle grade officers wouldn't be far behind. The generals can't afford not to fall in line.

The interesting thing to watch will be how far Erdogan is prepared to go in this looming confrontation.

[J]

Brigadier,

I hope that Erodogan shows his Turk metal, and we can all watch Tel Aviv crapping their drawers in the process. It is so sad that one little postage stamp like Israel has caused so much suffering and angst for such a wonderful neighborhood known as the Mideast.

It's really sad to watch. We Americans share a sad common bond with the Turks, both have been the victims of Israeli cold-blooded murder of its citizenry.

[Anna-Marina]

Hedges:
“…the attacks [of 9/11] were rooted in the long night of humiliation and suffering inflicted by Israel on the Palestinians, the imposition of our military bases in the Middle East and in the brutal Arab dictatorships that we funded and supported…”

http://www.truthdig.com/report/page2/nationalism_in_the_aftermath_of_9_11_20110910/

[Green Zone Cafe]

Wouldn't it be great if someone could just draw the borders, dig a trench as a right-of-way between Gaza and the WB, with overpasses for the Israelis, sign the treaty, and pump in some aid for Palestine and Israel.

Fat, dumb and happy would be the desired end state, instead of just dumb.

I think the crazies are calling the shots, though.

[Kunuri]

Not funny, Mr.Green Zone Cafe, ME is not the subdivision of a fast growing major US city, or lines are as clear as they appear on my Google maps. They did at one time, oh, maybe 1918, on a portable field table under the shade of a squad tent, and with the help of a straight ruler made out of Sheffield steel, but look where it got us?

[Kunuri]

Mr. J,
It has been my theory for years running now that Turks have more in common with Americans than any other nation in the world. I put this theory to a well educated German friend recently, who considers himself Turkish actually, after having lived and worked here for 20 years, and he agreed reluctantly, being a reasonable, common sense kind of worldly guy. Ataturk had foreseen this similarity, now as i discover the deeper I dig. He would have never seen Israel as a postage stamp, or would have allowed a single bullet to be fired unless in absolute defense of the homeland. If Ataturk was alive in 1950, Turkish participation in the Korean War would not have been possible. So really, as martial a society as Turkey is, no one is looking for a war, or wipe anybody out. The Turk metal shines best only in defense, as it should.

[J]

Kunuri,

Your country is a beautiful place, filled with wonderful people, excellent food, warm hospitality, and those that know what true friendship is all about.

[Green Zone Cafe]

And your solution is?

[Fred]

Kunuri,

In 1918 there were not 1.5 million immigrants from the former USSR living in what is now Israel, those came in the mid 80's after Israel passed on Jonathon Pollards stolen information to the Soviets. Those immigrants and their descendants are approximately 20% of the current population.

[Kunuri]

Fred, I honesly don't understand the relevance of what Pollard passed on to the Soviets, or how many Israelies were living in what is Israel proper now in 1918. The main thing is, artificial borders drawn as a result of colonial ambitions, and following dictotarial or monarchic regimes which totally discounted the ambitions of populations got us here. Arab spring, at least, moved one of the legs of this losing and painful combination, so what is Israel, US and Turkey to do about it? In my opinion, none are doing well, if you think otherwise, please enlighten me.

[Fred]

Kunnuri,

Russian immigration since 1980 accounts for 20% of the population, they have changed the makeup of Israel's government and thus it's conduct. They completely 'discount the ambitions' of the Palestinian population. The artificial borders of 1918 are now irrelevant; the issue is how the borders will be drawn in 2011. What is the US going to do about it - apparently nothing. What will Turkey do? Apparently what Turkey believes is in her national interest regardless of what the US - or Israel - thinks about it.