Review of Arab Situations

 
Libya:  Despite the dilatory policy of the Obama Administration, the Libyan insurgency is prospering.  We said here that this would be the inevitable end.  That may be a shock to those who have a short attention span or attention deficit disorder but it is so.  If the original US policy had been to provide training and light weapons to the insurgents as well as US air support this would have been over months ago.  Unfortunately, our foreign policy is run by people who think the chatter on "Morning Joe" is the equivalent of actual knowledge and experience..

Syria:  As forecast here, the Bashar Assad government is going to "crack," because the Syrian Army is reaching the end of its material and emotional resources.  At the same time the Turkish government and army is making it clear that it/they are displeased with the havoc being wrought upon the Sunni majority of Syria who are, after all, the co-religionists of the Turks.   The surrounding Arab countries have turned their backs on Syria's government.  It is not surprising that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia should do so.  His mother was a Syrian Shammar beduin woman and he has long established and deep ties in Syria.  What is likely to succeed Bashar is anyone's guess.  Americans tend to think that "progress" is inevitable.  We thought theat the "nice young people" would rule Egypt.  That did not happen.  Instead, the nasty old generals are still running the place.  i hear the mobs in some streets in Syria chanting "la ilaha illa 'lah" over and over again.  That means "there is no god but God."  Syria experienced a massive civil war in the early '80s when the Islamists tried to seize control and Hafith al-Assad suppressed them brutally but effectively.  Who are these peple in the streets?

Yemen:  It should be clear by now that Salih is largely an irrelevance.  He will never have the power that he had for so long.  That is not particularly important for the US.  Islamists will not rule in Yemen.  Tribal power with its own mores and versions of Islam will not allow the Islamists to seize power from the traditional tribal leaders.  That is good.  Salih managed to sell the ignorant in Washington the idea that he was a great and noble friend of the US and the West.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  He is and has always been merely an opportunist seeking help in subduing his local rivals for power.  If he "goes," he will be replaced by someone much the same.

Iraq:  A total mess.  Iran has achieved a position of great political strength in Iraq and will inevitably be the dominant foreign influence there.  The Iraqi Shia dominated government fears a serious renewal of Sunni Arab insurgency against its authority.  What has been seen thus far of suicide bombings is merely a "reminder" of the potential for a renewal of the Sunni insurgencies.  These insurgencies would probably have Gulf financial assistance.  The Maliki givernment has made a secret request to the US for a substantial number of trainers, etc. to remain in Iraq after this year but the number is too high for the taste of the White House.  How that will be resolved is anyone's guess.

It will continue to be argued that the US approach to difficulties in these coutries should be uniform (the same).  Ridiculous.  Foreign policy is not an analog to the Boy Scout Oath or a lesson from Sunday School.  One does what one can when one can.  pl

 

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks PL for great post and summary!

[J]

Boy Scout oath, Sunday School lessons? I love it. RFLOL

[J]

Colonel,

I'm just a wee bit concerned regarding the very apparent Israeli lack of concern and disregard regarding their recent murder of Egyptian Police personnel. Unless we the U.S. rein-in hard the Israelis and their unwarranted heavy handedness, the Sinai could very well become the next carnage like what we have seen them do to the inhabitants of the Gaza strip and the West Bank.

Egypt needs to muster up some balls and tell the war mongering Israelis to go stick their arrogant heads in the sand, if they don't stop their latest.

[J]

Phil,

Want to chime in on the latest Israeli heavy handedness? The buggers if not carefully 'constrained' are going to really heat things up real quick to the detriment of U.S..

[jonst]

The Col wrote" "Unfortunately, our foreign policy is run by people who think the chatter on "Morning Joe" is the equivalent of actual knowledge and experience".

I suspect our WORLD is run by those same people. Some 60 y.o. 'hedge fund trader' just paid Elton John, of all people, a million dollars to play at his birthday party out 'in the Hamptons'. Elton John?!

In any event...thank you for the update.

[jonst]

Here is the link....I should have put it in the first post:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/18/birthdays-are-still-big-in-buyout-land/?ref=business

You can't make this stuff up. YOu really can't.

[J]

jonst,

$47 Mill for a chalk drawing of a womans head, now that is wasteful spending. Think of all the cheeseburgers and milkshakes for the poor and those who 'have to' dumpster dive for their every meal, think of the pleasure that $47 Mill worth of cheeseburgers and shakes would have given those who don't have.

Colonel,

Do you recall what happened to those who were of the 'let them eat cake' mindset at the time that Marie Antoinette lost her head? Didn' they loose theirs too?

[Fred]

Jonst & J,

I'm reminded of a story circulated during the '06 race for Governor of Michigan where one candidate's family bougth pizza at $1,400 each. Apparently taking their Yatch on a cruise to Saugatuc where they bought two pizzas and pop for $20 plus $4 tip, it was the yacht that cost $2,800 or so over the three hour cruise (kind of like Giligan's Island).
At least they left a decent tip. Then again $4 is not much as far as 'stimulating the economy' goes. Good thing they only pay 15% on their capital gains, unlike the waitress who got tagged at 28% or so in income taxes off that $4. I wouldn't be too hard on Elton John though, he probably lost plenty investing in stocks that had good ratings from S&P.

[steve]

Jonst--

Makes "The Bonfire of the Vanities" 1980's bond daddy crowd look like pikers.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

To think that Bushies and neo-Cons didn't appreciate great writing and insights like this. Old age, double dip recessions, never ending wars and stupidity at the highest levels makes one wonder if Western Civilization can bounce back.

[toto]

Sir,

All I can say is, I look forward to a similarly concise and insightful summary of the situation in South Asia!

[Norbert M Salamon]

Vietnem Vet:

the answer to your question is no, as long as ALL oil prices on world market are above $ 105.00 as of this morning [bar WTI].

A little more bombing of marginal oil producers [Yemen, Lybia, Syria] and sanctions/economic distrurbance on countries with major hydrocarban resources [Iran, Venezuela, Sudan] will only make matters worse in the short term,and fatal in the long term.

[Martin]

LIBYA well the insurgency is prospering but its deceptive. The NTC is really just the old regime in new clothes. And it should be. They are a continuum of order. My concerns surround the Qatari and Emirati meddling that circumvents and undermines the NTC by funding their Islamist friends. The same who would chant Allahu Akbar in Syria, in Tahrir in Cairo and elsewhere. The real civil war didnt start.

[Green Zone Cafe]

Calling Iraq "a total mess" is a bit much. Baghdad looks better than it did two years ago, and much better than five years ago, when bombings of the scale of last Monday were a daily occurance. The Iraqi government is functioning more and more - roads are repaired, traffic lights installed, parks are watered and mowed. The provincial governments have been the leaders, in my opinion. Construction is picking up. The Baghdad Mall is being built in Mansour. Daily life is more and more normal.

In the next few years, oil production will double or triple, and big gas contracts are coming on line. It won't all be stolen by corruption - large amounts will be put to productive work as revenue and paid as direct or indirect wages to Iraqis.

Iran will be influential, true. Dominant? I'm not so sure. In some ways the Iranians have been even more ham-fisted than even Americans, demanding war reparations and not respecting the border. In the end, there is enough nationalism or just orneriness in Iraqis to keep them free of Iranian rule.

[Patrick Lang]

GZC

Nobody said anything about Iranian "rule." What i said was that Iran will be the dominant foreign influence in the coutry. I stand by that.

I hsve no doubt that given a chance Iraqis will build an impressive infrastructure. My point was that from the point of US interest the situation is a total mess. WE have gained nothing in Iraq, not even oil contracts. pl

[Green Zone Cafe]

You are probably right about Iran, but I am not sure that the Turks won't end up being the dominant influence, or at least a strong second, based on their huge investments and energetic diplomacy. There will also be strong presences by the GCC countries, the Euros, the Russians, the Chinese, and yes, the US, that will balance and dilute the foreign influence of the Iranians.

I agree that we - Americans - gained nothing in Iraq. There are oil contracts with ExxonMobil and Chevron, but that is not "we." There may be some benefit to the American people in the future in lower fuel prices once Iraqi production increases. My sense is that the Iraqis will pump as much as they can as fast as they can, OPEC be damned. Given their history and personal experiences, who could blame them for living for today? Maybe that was the purpose of the war, keep the price of the hydrocarbon economy down for a few more years.

[Ken Hoop]

The Iraq government might be "functioning more and more" in certain respects, and less and less in key others. Such would be the proper interpretation of the increase in violence of the past months. And the still unreconciled branches of that government as related to religious differences, and others.

[Fred]

GZC,

The American people benefit by what? The trillion dollar debt, 20,000+ wounded veterans? Politicians in both parties complicit in starting the war, maintaining the occupation and the continuing fiction of a national security interest in staying? So what if oil goes down, it was under $32/barrel in 2003.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2003-12-31-oil-prices-2003_x.htm

Iranian's are demanding war reparations? From whom, Iraqis? What's needed is reparations from those who betrayed the average American, looted the treasury and undermined the Constitution. The US government should be rebuilding Detroit, Cleveland, Benton Harbor and a 1,000 other places in America that are full of Americans, not fixing roads and building schools in foreign countries on the other side of planet Earth.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Green Zone Cafe:

In regards to the Iranian influence in Iraq: you are whistling past the grave-yard.

Are Americans dominant in Canada?

[Green Zone Cafe]

"Are Americans dominant in Canada?"

I don't think there's any question that the USA is the dominant foreign influence on Canada. Otherwise, why would Canada send its troops to fight and die in a place like Afghanistan? Iraq may behave in a similar way with Iran, or it may not.

"The Iraq government might be 'functioning more and more' in certain respects, and less and less in key others. Such would be the proper interpretation of the increase in violence of the past months. "

Right, if there was a statistically-significant increase in violence in the past months. More Americans were killed in June than any month in a long time, true. That has less to do with Iraq itself than the US presence in it. Otherwise, violence is decreasing year over year. I can tell you that the Iraqi security forces are several times more capable than they were in the past.

[William R. Cumming]

GZC! How long after Americans leave will Iraq have forces capable of force projection? I assume that they learned something of force projection from invasion and defeat and occupation by the
Americans but perhaps am wrong? Will ethnic and religious divides in Iraq be overcome once Americans leave? Remember I come down on the side of civil war in Iraq lasting almost indefinitely. Excuse for Iranian further penetration perhaps!

[Patrick Lang]

WRC

I don't think the Iranians want to own the political maelstrom that is Iraq. They know the place too well for that. what they want is to be the dominant foreign voice there. pl

[William R. Cumming]

PL! Is there an ARABIC word for "revanchism"?

[William R. Cumming]

Correction: "REVANCHISM"

[Patrick Lang]

WRC

Maybe, "al-akth bi tha'r."

As for CIA people I am uncetain as to which of those generational group were better or worse. These daysthey seem to be recruiting from a wide spectrum of recent university grads. One of the CIA people here will sort me out on this. pl