Libya Update

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

The Libyan rebels appear to have not only entered Tripoli, but seem to have brought about the collapse of Qhatafi's government.  It is also being reported that three of his sons, including his two eldest, are in custody and that Qhatafi's location is currently unknown.

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Comments

[Jake]

We will now find out what the French have wrought on us and see if another war of choice was worth the effort.....

[Patrick Lang]

jake

So, how are you going to judge that? pl

[Byron Raum]

It seems to me that there's a serious consequence of the "it didn't need to take so long." The price of oil is higher today because of the Libya troubles. This acts as an additional drag on the economy. Ergo, our feet dragging on Libya made our own lives harder.

[PirateLaddie]

I latched onto the March reposting just above this one. Not yet being caffinated, I thought it was, you know, NEW. Could be, given how the first few sentences track the current background noise.
To date, Obama's played it as well as possible, living as we are under constrained circumstances and the rabid nature of the GOP (just look at AZ John's comments).
Unlike the fall of Saddam, which the Iraqis were not allowed to "own," and the generic disaster in Affie, the Libyan folk know who did the heavy lifting and (hopefully) won't want to micturate away their new situation. Vamos a ver, but kudos to the administration for a weak hand, well played.

[PirateLaddie]

Byron -- sure, I guess so. And if Iraq hadn't been taken off line for the better part of a decade... No, no -- no use crying over spilt milk. Then again, WTI (as good a surrogate for Libyan crude as one can expect in this imperfect world and rigged market), has drifted downward since last Spring and Brent's been pretty much marching in place.
Yeah, too bad we didn't send in troops to settle ol'Daffy's hash -- 'Muricans always love a good fight. Helps the unemployment stats, too.

[Jake]

Colonel,

That judgement will be decided by the Libyans themselves. They are now their own masters. The way I see it? 1.Either the rebellion will implode and a civil war will break out. 2. The Libyans form a Turkish style of Government, or worse, 3. Extremism will the the form of government and those who supported this venture will be wearing an omelet, forget egg, on their faces.

While Qhatafi is not someone I supported and while the world is a better place without him and his type. I also did not support this nation building venture at all.

It needs to end for the United States unless it truly impacts our security and Libya did not.

I agree with you on the CT style of operations rather than using the heavies. The rest of the troops need to come home.

Let the diplomats start doing their jobs, rather than the US Military.

[J]

I have a question -- who will in the end wind up with the physical control of Libya's 144 Tons of Gold?

An item that dove-tails onto this is question -- Venezuela's Chavez recently demanded that all Venezuelan Gold immediately be returned to Venezuela that is currently held by Wall Street and Western Financial wonks (Bank of England, City of London, etc.) who have been using it and other nation's Gold holdings in their possession to over-issue their Gold paper certificates.

Ever since Chavez demanded Venezuela's Gold's immediate return, outfits like JP Morgan, Bank of England, etc. have been apoplectic and in a state of panic over it trying to scrounge together enough 'physical' gold to meet what they are 'supposed' to be holding.

Will the 'Free Men' of Libya gain physical control of its 144 Tons of Gold, or will Western finaglers (a.k.a. Wall Street/Bank of England/City of London) gain control and physical hold of it?

Venezuela's Gold holdings is 366 Tons.

[Jose]

Sir, how long before the tribes begin begin to play "The Game of Thrones?"

[Ken Hoop]

http://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2011/08/22/on-obama-administration-pressures-of-ny-ags-office/

I don't get the thrust of some of the commentors here who seem to believe
Obama is not willingly under Wall Street control himself, that it is only the nasty right wing GOP.

[Patrick Lang]

jose

Why should we care? pl

[Patrick Lang]

jake

This is not a "nation building venture." we broke it but we do not "own it." pl

[Jake]

Colonel,

No matter how we mix words. This is indeed nation building. Whether we started it, the IRI started it or the French did. We played in the sand box so we now own part of it...

[Patrick Lang]

Jake

It is only nation building when you start to create physical and institutional infrastructiure for them. You are an isolationist. pl

[J]

Colonel, Adam, WRC,

Gold just jumped up to $1900 per ounce. Sooo doing the math, -- how many ounces are in Libya's 144 Gold Tons? Will that moola buy a cheeseburger and a malt? Stuff's getting deep, isn't it? At the way things keep going, I'm going to have to get my waders out.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/22/markets-precious-idUSL4E7JM04820110822

[Fred]

Ken

That article just points out the importance of 'States Rights'.

[Medicine Man]

I wish people would apply the "pottery barn" metaphor to foreign policy a little more carefully.

[J]

Colonel,

Are DoD personnel being 're-branded' under CIA auspices in Libya? DoD spokes-wonk said categorically that NO DoD personnel were involved, however it is being reported that CIA ARE involved, and there are some questioning if a little hanky-panky re-branding isn't taking place. CIA couldn't hit the broadside of a barn without DoD Uniformed Personnel guiding their little CIA hands.

[Sidney O. Smith III]

J

Just out of curiosity, are you talkin' about the SAD/SOG crowd?

And, again, just out of curosity, can the SAD/SOG crowd segue back into JSOC and so on?

And can they then go out to Oklahoma and look for you, with Silverman whispering in their ear, "Yeah, that's him. Go after that Oklahoman."

It's a constitutional question, I reckon.

[J]

Sidney,

Constitutional question and the CIA rolled up into one? Don't get me started. Did you see where they have been involved in domestic USA duties helping the NYPD's blind-leading-the-blind unit? I'm talking about their supposed 'intelligence' unit (NYPD and intelligence in the same sentence), anyway it's purported that the CIA has been helping NYPD's Intelligence Unit track U.S. Muslims. If I were a Jersey cop, I'd be mad as hell at the NYPD screw-ups operating on my turf.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2011/08/24/with_cia_help_nypd_moves_covertly_in_muslim_areas/?rss_id=Boston.com+--+Latest+news

Both the CIA and NYPD need their tallywackers slammed on this, the FBI needs to stomp a Mississippi mud-hole in both CIA and NYPD for their screw-up maneuvers that are domestic U.S. Law Enforcement and Intelligence issues (not foreign or NYPD issues). NYPD Intel boys have no business operating outside NYC City Limits -- period.

[Sidney O. Smith III]

J

You made some earlier observations about how local law enforcement over the past few years has changed in appearance, therefore, leaving open the possibility of a change in attitude as well.

I spent a few years as a prosecutor (and enjoyed it) and, at least from what I can tell, all your comments are correct.

And what happens, even in the heart of America, when those in power can interpret the law in a “lenient” manner?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1TOWhU7dik

[Patrick Lang]

SoS

"with Silverman whispering in their ear, "Yeah, that's him."

What's that about? pl

[Sidney O. Smith III]

Trying to make light hearted, yet meaningful point about potential metamorphosis of law enforcement in US, including influence on officers and tactics. J is the one who has made me more aware of possible changes in law enforcement, particularly when he started using the word, “broadsword”.

From what I can glean, this issue was raised during a debate between J and Dr. Silverman on thread about splc. Can’t really say about splc -- they have done some good work in the past, imo. But I did some research and believe that J made some good points on the metamorphosis of law enforcement and these points were never refuted by Dr.Silverman.

Although the ultimate answer remains unclear, I do sense a shift among law enforcement that merits closer attention.

http://onlineathens.com/stories/071811/jac_858627408.shtml

Plus Dr. Silverman never addressed J’s question of what are the “goal posts” for who is a threat and who is not. Since then, I have been wondering the same. Who is creating the criteria and why.

Without goal posts, then is J a threat? Such was the point via hypothetical.

Would Dr. Silverman do such? Of course not.

But I cannot say the same for all, including those aligned with organizations that are keeping a “watch” on certain US citizens, ostensibly to aid law enforcement but perhaps to promote a political view.

Notably, these are the same organizations that, in the past, have done some worthwhile things, including the adl. But I believe in some ways they are now becoming more anachronistic and not answering present demands and needs.

[J]

Sidney, Colonel,

I am particularly in a state of apoplexy regarding how casual that Federal/State/Local law enforcement have been allowing themselves to be 'willing indoctrinated' for mere 'bobbles' by organizations tied to Foreign Governments. It's a gravy train for the Foreign Governments using U.S. organizations to achieve their objective -- penetration. What better way to conduct hostile espionage ops than to have watching their backs 'indoctrinated' host nation law enforcement who are the first ones usually on the scene that are supposed to investigate, instead perform a sweeping clean-up op.

Law Enforcement whether they be Federal/State/Local must, repeat 'must' work in a 'clean' environment free from undue 'influence'.

Had Pollard and the Israeli Embassy in D.C. at the time of Pollard's espionage activities, had they had 'in their pockets' members of the Naval NIS or FBI/State/Local personal who had been bought for mere bobbles, we could very well have never known about the Pollard affair and the damage it did to our National Security.

Junkets, whether they be for political (Congressional a-IPAC paid-for trips to Israel, etc.) or law enforcement (the url that Stanley provided) Foreign junkets, need to be brought to a close, and 'classes' taught to Federal/State/Local Law Enforcement by outsiders (i.e. ADL,SPLC/AEI/Heritage, etc.) needs to be brought a permanent close.

Our nation's National Security, and our nation's very survival is dependent on it.

[J]

Sidney,

I'm tired, I humbly apologize for the 'Stanley' versus Sidney typo on my part. Grovel, grovel. I think I need some sleep. Have a good evening.

[J]

Sidney, Colonel,

One important item that also needs to be closed are all these 'security/terrorism conferences' hosted by outsiders that both Federal Law Enforcement AND Intelligence persona have been attending.

If there is a 'real' need to have such 'conferences', then let them be conducted 'in-house' (i.e. Quantico, etc.), and NOT led/funded/originated/directed by 'outsiders'. If there is a 'need' for the heads of Federal/State/Local Law Enforcement AND Intelligence to schmooze with their Foreign opposites, then let such 'schmoozing' be conducted 'in-house' (i.e. at U.S. Government approved/monitoring swept/guarded facilities), and not at fancy hotels and their lounges and bars.

Colonel,

I'm forwarding to you under separate wrapper, a case in point in this regard, I think once you see the names on it, you'll understand what I'm referring to, regarding the level of 'Foreign penetration' that is taking place.