Giraldi on the possibility of a hot summer.

 
http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2011/06/08/target-iran/

Interesting.  pl

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

I can of course think of other possibilities for making the summer of 2011 a long hot one. And in fact did so recently on one of my blogs.
This would result in much more than an Israeli/Iranian duel.
Relying only on personal knowledge of some of the efforts since 1979 of both Israel and Iran and their weaponary there is not a high likelyhood of success by the Israelis alone or even with US support of Israeli attacks and follow on by the US.
Speaking of nuclear issues the Japanese are seriously thinking of totally abandoning nuclear power by shutting down permanently all reactors (54 were in operation on March 11th) as soon as next April. Only the USA in its drive to proliferate nuclear power by selling reactors (which largely unknown as late as the 50's can lead to weapons development)has continued to protest that it is NOT the largest driver on Nuclear Proliferation (power and weapons) in the World. The last President to seriously oppose proliferation was Dwight David Eisenhower. And just a note many on Wall Street will not invest in heavily regulated industries which is one reason why nuclear power will not further expand in the USA. This has nothing to do with climate change and going green. Again for better or worse WALL STREET continues to make national policy and the banks control of a largely inept Federal Reserve continues to threaten the US performance in the 21st Century. Where is our leadership?

[BillWade]

So, we bomb the crap out of them, then what?

[arbogast]

Obama was elected on lies.

He lied to get elected.

That's your leadership.

And, again, he led the way with the hit on bin Laden. That drama gives Israel carte blanche to do whatever it likes anywhere in the world.

And how many Sunni dictatorships would be grinning with pleasure on the sidelines?

[Fred]

Section 205 of Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen bill is nice, where's she getting the money to do all this stuff? Isn't this how we funded guys like Ahmed Chalibi for all those years?

[Roy G]

Good post, PG is right on it, as usual. Juan Cole has a good post up today as well, noting ex-Mossad chief Meier Dagan's extreme opposition to attacking Iran, even as the Ofer Brothers get sanctioned by the US for illegally trading with Iran!

Dagan, Ofer and the Growing Israeli Credibility Gap
http://www.juancole.com/

It is grotesque the way Congress is licking the boots of Bibi and their Zionist paymasters. The Bachmann bill is truly crazy. It seems the 'special relationship' will be one where Israel continues to get US money to give out free healthcare to all its citizens, and fund the continued expansion of the settlements, even as the US goes further into the red, and with Congress refuses to aid our own people.

The Congressional pandering is truly bizarre: “whereas archeological evidence exists confirming Israel’s existence as a nation over 3,000 years ago in the area in which it currently exists, despite assertions of its opponents." Who knew? Oh, right, God did. Uh huh.

[Thomas]

What if there is a change of command in the Republic of Iran before the factional farce is able to fulfill their war wetdream?

Every day is going to count in this unique year of 2011 and the Doomsday for Dummkopfe is still several weeks away.

[bill roche]

I seem to have Turkey on my mind tonight (and it is no where near Tnksgvng). My comment is directed to Pat Lang. What seems to be missing in the discussion of a nuclear armed Iran is the vulnerability of Turkey in that event. Do the Persians pose a direct threat to the Turks? Is it a religious rivalry (Sunni vs Sh'ite) or a revival of ancient regional hegemony. Can the Turks count on NATO? As always, where does that leave America? Your thoughts.
Billy Roche

[graywolf]

OK, all you guys get to pitch Israel over the side.
What then?
Over and over, you all bemoan Israeli influence on US policy.
Ideally, what should US policy be?
Aid to Syria?
Unlimited visas for Hezbollah?
Who - among the vast array of ME America-haters - would you cozy up to?
Obsession with Israeli influence inside the beltway may be a legitimate gripe; it's not a policy.

[Sam Will]

Thomas,

You nailed it on the HEAD.
The only way out possible is a Coup D'etat in IRAN soonest, and I think that this is the real PLAN since 2009...and I think that this is in the Works!
I will add that the situation in Syria is RIFE for a Violent House Coup D'etat, most likely it will be lead by the assassin Asef Shawkat, because he has ALL the right baggage... He is a Alawite, he is married to Bashar's sister and is in good favors with her mother, an influential countess in her own right, together with the Makhloufs, who hold the money strings...Asef Shawkat is the main liaison with American Intelligence and will be supported by CIA/MOSSAD. So, we are living an interesting period indeed, in MENA and beyond. :)

[Patrick Lang]

bill R.

Israeli assertions aside Iran is not nuclear armed, not even close. Israel is nuclear armed as is Pakistan. Let's keep our eye on the ball. pl

[Neil Richardson]

Graywolf:

"OK, all you guys get to pitch Israel over the side.
What then?
Over and over, you all bemoan Israeli influence on US policy.
Ideally, what should US policy be?"

When an "ally" decides to drive off a cliff, it's best to take your belongings and get out of the car.

"Aid to Syria?
Unlimited visas for Hezbollah?"
A straw man is the first sign of an intellectually bankrupt position.

"Who - among the vast array of ME America-haters - would you cozy up to?"

Is it that difficult to understand what a realist foreign policy is? You "cozy up" to whomever serves your national interest at a given point in time. Which part of Palmerston's quotation did you miss? In case you haven't found out there was a different foreign policy in the Middle East during the Eisenhower administration.

"Obsession with Israeli influence inside the beltway may be a legitimate gripe; it's not a policy."

It is a *policy* if the USG decides to reduce financial, material and intelligence support to Israel who seem very happy to "cozy up" to our other "ally" the People's Republic of China.

[shanks]

/quote

OK, all you guys get to pitch Israel over the side.
...
Aid to Syria?
Unlimited visas for Hezbollah?
/end quote

Nice try. to add to Neil's reply, if it helps US policy, so be it.

IF I were American(which I'm not), you would be useful only till you were useful. After that....

Tibetans learnt that, the Vietnamese learnt that, the English learnt that(WW2 bills came due), Egypt(or rather Mubarak learnt that reluctantly) and a whole host of countries in between which learnt it the hard way. If you can get something out of the relationship, great, else you might as well bend over for the rogering.

Ponder this for a minute; the USA can win over 1.5 billion Muslims in the blink of an eye if it EVER abandons Israel; even if it kills millions of muslims for the next 100 years. Israel? A multi-generational chance of genocide awaits it from the 1.5 billion. Such is its life and alliance. Instead of trying for peace, it keep kicking the shins of people around, it's going to be inevitably trampled.

[Fred]

Greywolf,

It is time for congress to 'cozy up' to the American people, all of them, which is who they are supposed to represent.

[Roy G]

Unlimited visas for Hezbollah?

This is just one of many cartoonish politically illiterate statements you've made about the ME. Hizb are Lebanese, that's their home, and they really have no interest in coming to the US. If you knew your ME history, you would realize that Hizb is a resistance movement, that started in response to their country being invaded by Israel. Their hatred of the US govt. is in direct proportion to US support of Israel's territorial aggression, and US meddling within Lebanon.

While you may think the US has a right to drop a military base anywhere it feels like, I strongly suspect the shoe would be on the other foot if, say, Turkey dropped a base down in Georgia, all to help the people of Georgia, of course.

Otoh, it's funny you mention 'unlimited visas' because I've heard of recent backroom dealings between Israel and the US, to fast track Israeli immigration requests, once their revanchist position becomes sufficiently untenable.

[Thomas]

Graywolf,

Repetitive howls come across as a whine.

What should be done? How about a Concert of the Middle East? Unfortunately it looks like we will have an apocalypse instead.

Though, the Lord God could always have the Ram's horn sounded, call out "Enough", and deal with all of us face to face. Until then, some of us will try for the Concert.

[Charles I]

The moving goal posts and salami tactics have worked on the Palestinian problem, and the U.S. congress has sat still for or sold it not sure which, as "no partner for peace process therefore partner must be destroyed for peace".

Why change on Iran?

[confusedponderer]

Greywolf,
"Unlimited visas for Hezbollah?"

The US has sided with weirder folk in the past. Even pretty recent past.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Mujahedin_of_Iran

[Anna-Marina]

Sorry, graywolf, but you sound like "Stockholm -syndromed" wife of a habitual abuser.
Giraldi writes, first of all, about global militarization conducted by the US' MIC. These very expensive actions, and the enthusiastic prompting of Israeli mad racists in ME, are deadly for all of us.
The ME is inhabited by the natives. The US and the majority of Israelites are the poorly behaving “guests.”
According to Newtonian law of mechanics, “to every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction.”

[elkern]

China would be the only winner of a war between Israel/US and Iran.

US wouldn't lose the military struggle, but - like Britain through WWI & II - we'd accelerate our financial decline dramatically (see "US Invasion of Iraq"). Britain at least was able to maintain some diplomatic power, by handing over the world throne to a power with a (sorta) common language, culture, & political structure. I don't picture the Chinese paying any attention to an imaginary American Churchill in 2020; nor are we likely to see all the teenage girls of Beijing screaming for some American version of the Beatles in 2030.

Tough times ahead. It's easy to picture the US inadvertently choosing to go out in a blaze of "glory" rather than consciously attempting a soft landing into a reasonable future as one power among many.

[William R. Cumming]

Of interest of course is mounting tensions and efforts at control by Government of China spurred by Arab Spring and actual internal events in China.

Just as MENA followed closely here do readers of this blog have favorite English language blogs on China?

Any evidence SST contributed to events so far in the Arab Spring?

What do the Israelis make of SST?

J street?

AIPEC?