Sic Semper Tyrannis

#Raid in Pakistan - Radio Interview

 

I was on the Pat Campbell radio show this AM to talk about the bin Laden op.  pl

http://podcast.1170kfaq.com/PCInterviews/tabid/1838/Default.aspx

#The Breach Was Never Closed - TTG

This is the gravesite of General Henry Thomas. He lies but a stone's throw from several members of my wife's family. Thomas was a Virginian who chose to stay with the Union Army. He earned the nickname "The Rock Of Chickamauga" at the battle of Chickamauga Creek in 1863. When he died in 1870, he was buried in his wife's family plot in the Oakwood Cemetery in Troy, New York. I think the plaque erected by the Civil War Society of Berryville, Virginia in front of Thomas' grave captures the raw emotions that still billow from any discussion of the Civil War or The War Between the States... even among the learned and rational ladies and gentlemen of this esteemed forum.

#Air Support: The numbers game - Basilisk

 

In the NATO intervention in Libya, it is easy for the media to lose sight of what is being done, and what is not.

 In the thirty days that ended when the month of April 2011 closed out it is reported that NATO flew a total of 4398 sorties, including 1821 strike sorties.

 It is not clear to me what the terminology means. In my time with NATO “strike” had a very specific meaning that is not intended in the current reporting. In any case, the strike sorties carried out by NATO are a combination of attacks against “strategic” targets—runways, fixed missile installations, and command and control targets, and “tactical” targets intended as the UN resolution directed, to protect civilians by destroying Libyan Government armor and indirect fire weapons.

 There is a constant temptation to equate sorties to iron on target, but in this case a lot of these 4389 sorties have been excellent opportunities for Spanish F-18’s and Norwegian, Danish, Belgian F-16’s to bore holes in the sky. The number also probably includes “air superiority missions,” similarly tooling around looking for the now combat ineffective Libyan Air Force.

 Chalking up a sortie does not mean targets were engaged. So, while 4398 sorties sounds like a substantial number, one should really look at the number in context.

 On 16 November 1944 in preparatory air support to the movement of the Fourth Infantry Division into the Hürtgen Forest 1,389 heavy bombers, 107 medium bombers, and 486 fighter bombers from the Eighth Air Force and the RAF in at least 1982 sorties dropped 9,000 tons of bombs in a single day against seven German villages.

 Granted, the Circular Error Probable (CEP) of a heavy bomber bombardment box may have been a kilometer compared to the roughly one meter CEP for the popular GBU-12 laser-guided 500 pounder that is the most popular air-delivered weapon in the Libyan support missions, but the raw numbers are instructive.

 As the advance into the Hürtgenwald continued, the Ninth Tactical Air Force, weather permitting, provided hundreds of combat sorties per day. It wasn’t enough.

 If anyone still harbors thought of the victorious rebels marching into Tripoli behind a steamroller of airpower, the numbers game should disabuse them of this vision.

 Modern tactical airpower is precise, surgical, and deadly, but the support of the type being provided—numerically small and tailored to limit collateral damage—is not going to provide an offensive advantage for the under-trained and under armed Libyan rebels. They may still win, because if the support missions continue, they are a kind of safety net, but it may take a very long time. The alternative is that an attack against a legitimate command and control target may provide a de facto decapitation, and a swift end.

 That would be luck. Otherwise we surely must be thinking about someone’s boots on the ground if we continue to expect a military solution to the situation.  Basilisk

#Are we there yet?

 
I have been away the last few days, but returned in time to hear of this much celebrated event.  Several journalists and reporters have called this morning to ask my opinion.  They seem disappointed that I am not more enthusiastic and excited over the demise of this great enemy of the US and the West.

I am glad he is dead.  The deciion to kill him rather than bring him back for trial or confinement was the right decision.  Imagine how difficult the legal and political situation would be if you had him in captivity.  Now they had better be able to prove that he really is dead.

I am surprised at the level of press and public hysteria.  It was a well run raiding operation based on what had to be good human intelligence operations and prolonged ground surveillance of the target area.  USSOCOM and JSOC worked well together and the integration of their effort with CIA is impressive stuff.  There have been more difficult raids than this one but this was the "big kahuna" in terms of political impact.

Will this kill off the Islamic zealot groups that keep trying to mount operations against Western and especially American targets?  I think not, but what it will do is contribute to the long term process of attrition that will eventually bring the current cycle of violent Islamic revivalism to a new "place," a "place in which emphasis is likely to be placed on evolutionary change in Islam as a faith system and way of life.

Any notion that some portion of Pakistan's military and security institutions did not know of UBL's long term presence in the suburbs of Islamabad is just silly.  Abbotabad is the home of Pakistan's West Point.  Many retired officers live in the town.  We are to believe that the Pakistan equivalent of the FBI did not take an interest in this big compound with no telecommunications connectivity?  We are supposed to believe that?  I have too much respect for the Pakistanis to believe that.  They knew.  This is part of the phenomenon of "distancing" from the US that we have discussed so thoroughly here at SST.  If we think the Pakistanis are "allies," then we are fools.

President Obama took a long time deciding to launch this operation.  What will he do now?  With Petraeus and Rodriguez leaving Kabul and the July date for the beginning of withdrawal approaching this is a good time to decide to revert to a CT strategy and to accelerate the withdrawal of conventional forces from both Iraq and Afghanistan.  This operation was not the fruit of COIN.  COIN in Afghanistan "buys" us nothing but a temporary presence in a lot of dusty neighborhoods.

The American people want an end to COIN campaigns that bleed us and empty out our pockets.

Like the kid in the back seat, the American people want to know if we are "there" yet.  I think we are.  pl

 

Breaking News: bin Laden Dead

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

According to all the major news networks the President is preparing to make a televised address that Osama bin Laden is dead and that he was killed as a result of US military actions.

Here's a link to the breaking news:

Sources: Osama bin Laden is dead

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College or the US Army.