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12 May 2011

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par4

A good refuge for Qathafi is a hole 6'x6'x3' filled over with dirt.

bth

What the rebels needs is access to MQ's impounded cash.

Matthew

Personally, I think he should make Aliyah. He's allegedly got relatives there. If he can't find them, he can always hang out an SLA rapist/torturer who emigrated from Lebanon around 2000.

Cold War Zoomie

I wonder how he felt when the news broke that we killed OBL.

I wonder.

Hmmm.

William R. Cumming

My memory slips but did the battle start in late February?

The Twisted Genius

WRC,

The beginning of the struggle was February 17. In commemoration, the youth movement is called the Feb 17th Movement. Seems to be a common custom throughout the region.

The Twisted Genius

The Misrata rebels are on a roll. In the beginning of the conflict, I remember reading that Qathafi's forces were having trouble mounting an offensive against the city. There were a lot of desertions in their front line units. That gave the rebels a little breathing space, but just a little. Fighting in a built up area that the rebels were familiar with is also a tremendous plus on the rebels' side. City fighting is a squad level war so the rebels' lack of higher organization was not the kind of disadvantage faced by the rebels in the west fighting a mobile war over open terrain. The rebels' lighter weapons mix is also less of a disadvantage in street fighting. About a month ago some rebels from Bengazi slipped into Misrata to teach the Misrata rebels how to take on Qathafi's armor. Shortly after that, they were knocking out tanks fairly regularly. Perhaps some outside "trainers" slipped in there at the same time.

The rebels in the towns along the mountains to the south of Tripoli also seem to be holding their own. The NATO bombing is obviously helping, although, as Basilisk pointed out, it is not enough to be decisive. I think the targeting of command and control facilities in Tripoli is effective. Qathafi is surely spending most of his time trying to figure out how not to be under the NATO missile strike. NATO's not aiming for him...yeah... right.

In time, Qathafi's forces will disintegrate further and I'm still confident the rebels will prevail. Tripoli will erupt when the time is right.

The Twisted Genius

bth,

You are absolutely right. I think things are moving in that direction. They also have a sugar daddy in the Emir of Qatar.

Colin

Are the rebels finally getting organized?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/qatari-military-advisers-on-the-ground-helping-libyan-rebels-get-into-shape/2011/05/11/AFZsPV1G_story.html

If so it I would think it is still months before they could be an effective offensive force. But is this the turning point where Gadhafi's can at least be held?

arbogast

A less sanguine view that points up the incredible value of the A10's and AC-130's. Don't any NATO countries besides the US have these?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ME12Ak03.html

Who cudda thunk that the French would come up with a superior fighter? They take technology seriously in France... usually much too seriously.

Well, at least the arms dealers will survive.

Thomas

Some results of airstrikes in Misrata:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYU2408XCtU&feature=player_embedded

William R. Cumming

Thanks TTG for the info!

William R. Cumming

So if MQ makes it to May 17th both PL and I were wrong in analyzing his staying power. Perhaps all those underground GERMAN built bunkers.

An arrest warrant from the ICC looking imminent!

Patrick Lang

WRC

Maybe you think this is some kind of game, but I do not. pl

William R. Cumming

No game all deadly serious.

William R. Cumming

MQ now under indictment by the ICC!

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