IRAN AND THE BOMB - How real is the nuclear threat? by Seymour Hersh

"Despite years of covert operations inside Iran, extensive satellite imagery, and the recruitment of many Iranian intelligence assets, the United States and its allies, including Israel, have been unable to find irrefutable evidence of an ongoing hidden nuclear-weapons program in Iran, according to intelligence and diplomatic officials here and abroad. One American defense consultant told me that as yet there is “no smoking calutron,” although, like many Western government officials, he is convinced that Iran is intent on becoming a nuclear state sometime in the future.  " Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/06/06/110606fa_fact_hersh

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Hersh quotes me quite a lot in this piece.  I would like to make it clear I that am not the "retired military intelligence official." Nor am I the source in any passage that does not name me as such.  I have not read or had saccess to the NIE of 2007 on Iran, nor have I read or had access to the "Memorandum to holders of the Iran NIE" of 2011.  I have had no access to classified US Government information on this subject.  pl 

Comments

[optimax]

The article was slightly confusing about who said what. Thought Mentions was a person. Dropping pronouns is fine, I do it all the time, if the meaning is clear.

[Thomas]

The European Diplomat says that Iran is making a bomb because they are enriching to 20 percent, though open sources say they are enriching to that level for their medical research reactor that will run out soon. Well, can't let facts get in the way of a fantasy of fools.

Second, Ahmadinejad, the Div du jour, would cut a deal in heartbeat for a notch in his legacy belt, but the domestic poltical drama and Ali Khameini prevents it. So if resolving the issue is to be achieved, then Ali Khameini needs to fulfill his responsibility as Supreme Leader and the US should emphasize this point.

[Jake]

Iran..nuclear weapon....maybe ten years. Building a bomb is easy, minimizing it and fitting it to IRBM and or ICBM missile is not. I have not heard of any serious missile threat from Iran that could be used as a nuclear delivery system. Oh yeah, I did I forget to tell ya? Making sure it would go boom is also slightly important. No one likes a fizzle....

While we are looking at Iran how about? How about the 80 nukes Israel has and why Israel is blocking IAEA Inspectors? Transparency Iran? Right.....

[William R. Cumming]

Iran's nuclear complex accellerated its burrowing after 1979!

[Fred]

Thomas,

So Ahmadinejad (or even Ali Khameini) gives up a nuclear program, which they may or may not have, gets the Nobel Peace Prize, starts using the title 'the peacemaker' and makes nuclear armed Israel (and the US) look like fools all at once? Priceless.

[Thomas]

Fred,

My view is their strategic goal is reached by completing the fuel cycle to have breakout capapcity. They would never give that up, but allow extensive IAEA inspections to complete a deal.

And in fairness to Iran, their chief Gulf competitor is an ally of their South East nuclear neighbor.