#Qathafi's victory will mean more repression.

 
"The protesters carried Iraqi flag and banners, with some chanting "Baghdad is a free country, America get out!" and "No for Occupation, No for America."

One banner read "No, no America," while another said, " Yes, yes for Quran."

American troops are scheduled to depart from Iraq at year's end under a bilateral agreement between the Iraqi government and the United States."  CNN

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The conspiracy mongers are having a field day ascribing to the US and NATO wonderfully bizarre deviousness in the thwarting of the "Arab Spring" revolts and alarums.  "The US was only lukewarm to the Egyptian revolutionaries."  "The US wanted Mubarak to leave in something other than the manner of his actual going."  "The US has tacitly approved Saudi and Bahreini repression of the Shia revolutionaries in those places." 

A lot of people want to believe in the purposfulness of the American government in its policy towards such events.  Normally, those who want to believe this are people who have no experience in government and who have not suffered through endless factional internal conflicts over policy in a system (ours) that is designed to delay and impede the implementation of clear policy objectives and in which barriers to decision are everywhere.  Some of this naivete is the product of that lack of direct experience.  Some is the result of too much exposure to pulp fiction and flashy movies that have nothing to do with reality.  Some is just left-over hostility to government brought on by the success of the neocons and the Bushies in fabricating and creating the war hysteria that took us into Iraq in 2003.

Similar internal propaganda "successes" are normally impossible.  The public law, the bureaucracy, the skepticism of the press and foot dragging by the public typically block effective action in foreign adventures.  In 2002/2003 most people (not me) who had a deep knowledge of Washington did not believe that the conspiratorial efforts of the neocon dominated administration would succeed in actually beinging the United States to invade a country uninvolved in 9/11. 

They were wrong in that case but many of the same people have now said that the familiar combination of bureaucracy, faction, press and law will prevail against an "adventure" in Libya.  In this instance they are correct.  The old pattern holds in this case, but unfortunately the power of that pattern of forces largely dooms the possibility of deep political change in the Islamic World.

As I have previously written, the "freedom agenda" of the Bush and Obama administrations was a powerful enducement for those in the Islamic World who want to see change in the direction of western style constitutional government and elections or just change to re-align countries in the game of nations often in the direction of greater Iranian power in the balance of forces.

Massive change seemed a possibility in aftermath of the Cairo revolt.  Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Bahrein and even Saudi Arabia all seemed to be on the verge of something big, REALLY BIG. 

Then, the revolt in Libya began, a revolt in which the rebels were clearly outgunned and out spent, and even out organized by those who favor the status quo throughout the region.

The usual factional warfare predictably broke out in Washington, a warfare in which it seemed for a time that the US would offer the modicum of assistance in training, advice and air support that might bring down the tyrant Qathafi.  In the end the forces in the US Government and abroad that support "stability" above all else have triumphed.  Defeat and destruction appear to be the fate of the Libyan rebels.  James Clapper's forecast of their eventual defeat is becoming reality.  His forecast was just that, a forecast of future events based on probablities in the event of unchanged circumstance.  It was not advocacy.

Qathafi's impending victory is being watched closely by all the tyrants and by the Egyptian officer corps.  Their personal interests lie in the direction of the status quo.

Qathafi's victory will bring on a wave of oppression and street war that will dwarf anything yet seen.  In the Gulf Iran stands ready to support the diminution of the power of Sunni governments.  Casualties in that coming wave of revolt will be high, but the killing power available will favor the givernments.  pl

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/09/iraq.demonstrations/

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

A wonderful post with which I wholeheartedly agree. Just as the "Revolutions" of 1848 were not largely successful most regimes including the political parties in the US cannot be reformed from within. But the stage is set for larger catastrophes to follow. This century will apparently be even more explosive than the last.

[LeaNder]

this is by far the most powerful comment for some time, if you allow me that label? And I hope that the people that have the power to influence matters read it, give up their narcissistic strife (endless factional internal conflicts over policy) and face the scenario you paint.

[steve]

"A lot of people want to believe in the purposfulness of the American government in its policy towards such events."

Yes.

When the government acts in ways that seem contradictory/inept/confused/leaderless, etc., etc., I suppose it's to be expected that people refuse to accept that reality.

That refusal, together with the unexamined assumption that government is somehow "all powerful", gives rise to those beliefs that there must be something more at play than the apparent ineptness.

Hence, conspiracy theories.

However, like was said, a rose is a rose.

[Ken Hoop]

If the US government is comprised of the inchoate competing factions the Col describes, only one more reason it had no business conducting an interventionist Middle East policy unlikely to help the region, Libyan intervention being no exception.

Nevertheless, I'm not sure it can be argued a decline in clerical or any other
nationalism in Iran would automatically help the Palestinian fight for the inevitable, justified one state solution against Zionism. A prime concern.

[walter]

Is there no moral code for our government to follow? Can we not agree on some simple, clear guidelines? The American people feel confused by our foreign and domestic policies...they seem to be directed by the hidden, narrow interests of those in power rather than an immutable Higher Purpose.

What are American values? Where are they written? Do we know what they are?

The Constitution. The Bible. Why are we so disunited as a people? Help pls.

[walrus]

Col. Lang,

I explicitly said before that I deliberately ignored Hanlons razor: "Never attribute to conspiracy what can be explained by stupidity".

Sadly, you are most probably absolutely correct. The big investors in the status quo have prevailed.

You are right about the Egyptian Officer Corps as events today in Tahrir Square apparently foreshadow.

"10:10am

EGYPT Several hundred protesters stayed in Cairo's Tahrir Square overnight and have barricaded the square with a burnt-out army vehicle, barbed wire and beams.

"The people demand the toppling of the Field Marshal," they chanted, referring to military chief Hussein Tantawi who was handed power after former president Hosni Mubarak was ousted"

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/middle-east/live-blog-middle-east-protests-april-10

[TamBram]

Col.,
You have mentioned increased Chinese influence in Saudi Arabia is likely. Do you think this might involve basing rights? I wouldn't mind having some friendly Chinese troops around if I were the Saudis, but maybe too provocative to the "man on the street"?

[michael brenner]

There are alternative explanations that do not fit comfortably into the conspiracy or factional deadlocks categories. It has to do with judgment, perspective and a sense of what counts - plus a modicum of responsibility.

The line of analysis insightfully presented by the Colonel was not self-evidently beyond the ability of Mr. Obama, Ms Clinton or Mr Gates to comprehend. What they lacked was the four qualities noted above.

If they had reached the conclusions outlined by the Colonel, I frankly cannot see why there would insurmountable difficulties
in acting upon it. There is no comparison with Iraq; we are not even talking about boots on the ground. The operation got off to good start with the French and British, there were no signs of mutiny in the military, Gates was not about to resign, and no riots in the streets. The fretters on the talk shows would fret anyway but the topping of Gaddafi could well have been over before the usual 'experts' even finished the circuit.

One further condition (a fifth) that should be added to the above notation of qualities worthy of a President and his people. That is a mature freedom fom mania and obsession, e.g. the dread of phanton ben-Ladens behind every Facebook and Twitter message.

In the end, it comes down to the man at the top - it always does. Americans in 2008 were awaiting a Messiah; an empty taxi arrived and Barack Obama stepped out.

[Joe Lima]

The fact that the neocon conspiracy to invade Iraq succeeded where the advocates of more decisive action on behalf of the Libyan revolt have apparently failed, is dismal to contemplate.

Are our institutions and processes of foreign policy formation so dysfunctional now that we are condemned to oscillate between vigorous pursuit of stupid & unrealistic goals and half-hearted pursuit of noble & achievable ones? And if so, is that a new pattern, historically speaking, and what, if anything, can be done to reverse it?

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

An excellent summary of what is really happening. The only thing I would add is: watch carefully what Turkey does.

Turkey appears to have assumed, by default, the role of leadership of the Muslim world. While working to keep this community free of foreign domination (and foreign interference, open and covert), it is also trying to move it in the direction of modernization. That means it will try to support moves towards increasing freedom and democratization, but without openly breaking with the current oligarchic regimes in Muslim countries.

I believe it will try to achieve a resolution in Libya that will prevent Qaddafi from having the free hand that will lead to the bloodbath that you fear, and will leave open the potential for future progress. Of course, there is no assurance that it will succeed in this endeavour (or in its general policy in the Muslim world).

But it bears watching.

[Patrick Lang]

MBrenner

Ah, no, we should take charge. Suggest a method.

My bretheren, SOS and Highlander know how helpless we are.

You still, nobly, think there is something other than servitude to the corruption of our instututions. God bless. pl

[Twit]

"Servitude to the corruption of our institutions."

Col Lang, what a beautifully concise way to describe America's plight. Rightists think we are still free, when we are demonstrably not. Leftists think we are slave to the institutions of the state or the market, when in reality it is the corruption of those institutions that has opened the door to nihilism and tyranny.

[jr786]

Boobus Americanus cannot be allowed to connect freedom fighting with shouts of All-hu Akbar. What would he think when the Israelis invade Lebanon and/or Gaza again? The skillful portryal of the Egyptian intifada as perfectly secular and peaceful saisfies the narrative woven for the public: Muslims fighting as Muslims are always bad. Arabs fighting (as opposed to 'protesting') for anything while wearing kaffiya are terrorists.

[The Twisted Genius]

Our union is torn asunder. I don't know when it started, but it became very apparent to me shortly after the Obama inauguration when the Republican party goal of making the Obama administration fail in everything it attempted was openly acknowledged and deemed acceptable by half the electorate. Our present predicament reminds me of the old Russian story of the poor peasant who prayed, "Lord, my neighbor has a goat and I do not. Please kill my neighbor's goat." When the Republicans next hold the oval office, the Democrats will make the same prayer. Unless something cataclysmic happens, we are royally screwed and cannot be expected to demonstrate moral leadership in world affairs.

Come together for a grand purpose? How naive and quaint.

Beyond our borders autocrats not only acknowledge that ruthless application of violent force to retain power is not only effective, but not subject to any meaningful sanction. I don't, however, think this will last forever.

[The Twisted Genius]

In the seven years or so prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, I got the distinct impression that CENTCOM desperately wanted to have a much larger footprint in their AOR and to have major forces permanently under its command. The enduring bases of Iraq and the occupying forces were to be CENTCOM's dream come true. In spite of our imminent departure, I think there is still a large element in CENTCOM and the in the Pentagon that desperately clings to this dream and are pushing as hard as possible to remain in Iraq...not so much as a matter of defense strategy, but as a matter of bureaucratic enlargement. Of course this is not a proven fact, but it sure looks that way to me.

[William R. Cumming]

Agree with General Ali that the Turks hold the key to the very near term in both Libya and elsewhere in the Islamic world. Yes Iran please look over your shoulder and ask yourself "who are these guys"? They are the ones that most successfully and most recently washed East and West even to the gates of Vienna. All seem to have such short short memories these days.