#Arab Spring - a Tour

 
WRC asked a while back for a review of the various revolutions, alarums and excursions:

- Yemen. "As I said" (AIS), Salih has been searching for some time for an exit strategy that provides a home for him and his and that does not leave revolutionaries in charge, revolutionaries who might demand his return for trial.  His most promising route out lies in something like the deal that the GCC is pushing.  The Saudis do not want to see Egyptian style revolution spread to the peninsula.  They would be displeased to see that since it might prove contagious.  Saud Arabia has a large expatriate Yemeni population.  He might be tempted to fight it out, pugnacious as he is, but the times are not right and he will not want to lose a potential hime in SA.  South Yemen may well try to secede from the larger body and resume its status as an independent state.  North and South Yemen are quite different culturally.  In that event AQAP (Awlaki) will try to build a redoubt area somewhere like the Hadramaut with an eye to eventually taking over South Yemen.  I doubt if he could.  There are too many Communists, Socialists, secular nationalists and Baathists in the place for that to be an easy thing to do.

- Saud Arabia/Bahrain. AIS, the US need for political stability and a stable flow of oil and gas ensure that the US will accomodate Saudi Arabia by not supporting any sort of movements for diminution in Sunni monarchical rule in the Gulf States (SA, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman).  Bottom line, whatever the Saudis want to do, they will do.  They are not a colonial dependency of the US and are quite self confident in their handling of their relationship with the US.  You could see that in Saud al-Faisal's interview with Tom Borkaw.  Their motto - "Who's afraid of the big bad Trump, the big bad Trump,"  etc.  If I lived in one of the Gulf States I would be very quiet just now.

- Egypt.  AIS, the Egyptian generals now in charge are playing "hardball" with the opposition.  They were disturbed but unfrightened by the 3 million person demonstration in Tahrir Square last week. (TAH-REER, syllable break between the aspirated "H" and the "R."  Not TACH-REER.  Not TAHHHREER. Work on it.)  The generals correctly see that the MB/Salafi political combination is dangerous to them and their money in the long run, not in this next election but... eventually.  To ward off that menace they are playing the, what? "Revolutionaries" on the left and center against the MB/Salafi crowd.  The business men who were at the heart of the old NDP setup, are the business partners of the generals.  Many of them are Copts. Are the generals going to let the businessmen and Mubarak be put on trial?  We will see.  It would be so much easier to hold show trials of a few selected and not so rich people.

-Libya.  AIS, The dilly-dallying by the Obama administration is moving the situation toward a de facto partition of the country in spite of Obama having committed the US to a policy of regime change in Libya.  Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is NEVER politically profitable.  Obama foolishly made policy without the cojones to press the issue forward to victory over Qathafi.  Not much would have been needed, CAS, the no fly zone, a few trainers and advisers, but the opportunity is nearly gone now.  Qathafi's survival will make Obama look like the amateur that he is. AIS, the autocrats will all be strengthened in their resolve by this.  Salih will go, but that is the result of Saudi willingness to "shop" him so long as another Zeidi tribesman replaces him, not one of his "henchmen" as some news cretin has said, but just another Zeidi tribesman.  Work on it.

- Israel, AIS, Israel's policy is to support the autocrats everywhere because they have only one "issue," themselves.  They do the same thing all over the world, supporting foreign leaders on this one issue basis.

- Syria.  AIS, Bashar (not Basheer) Assad is a closet liberal (ME context) but he rules Syria as a consensus choice.  His close family and the Alawi and Sunni Baathist nomenklatura sense that any step backward in control will lead to a collapse.  They are being encouraged in this by the Saudis.  Outcome?  If Qathafi survives so will the Alawi/Baathis regime.

-Jordan.  AIS, the young king would like to move towards a truly constitutional monarchy.  The Saudis have strongly advised him not to do that.

What's left?  pl

 

Comments

[Adam L. Silverman]

Mr. Cumming: T. Boone Pickens has actually been buying up water rights and supplies all over the world for years. Water is going to be a huge commodity just like all the other things we've commodified.

[clifford kiracofe]

Egypt:

"In the past week, however, Salafi clerics have begun urging their followers to vote for the Brotherhood, conceding that their rivals are light-years ahead of them in political organizing, coalition-building and media outreach.

Analysts say the Salafis realize they're in over their heads as politicians, so their best bet is to send their legions to the Brotherhood so as not to split the Islamist vote."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/04/12/112053/egypts-hard-line-islamists-speak.html#ixzz1JOmxEg1k

[clifford kiracofe]

Fred,

It seems that in the neo-Medieval world order presently under construction, private monopolies are "good" and public monopolies are "bad".

Also, sovereign states are "bad" but large cities are "good" and are to be supported over and against the "bad" sovereign states.

The "Austrian School" of economics is the darling in the very cosmopolitan privatization world. Any wonder that the Q's family in Libya is close to the Rothschilds, early patrons of the "Austrian School"? And just how did Libya get into its own privatization binge a few years ago?

The "American System" concept of Henry Clay etal. in 19th century America is unheard of in the present day US. At some point in the future, it may dawn on a few Americans that they and their hopelessly debtor nation have been subtly but effectively re-colonized. Meanwhile the dumbed down American masses/drones-robots will adulate Oprah, Beck, and Rush.

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks TTG! I do know the FRENCH tend to take more interest when the nation-state they aid is largely FRENCH speaking.

[William R. Cumming]

Professor Kiracofe! Agree with your comment to FRED. And yes the "elites" in AMERICA have never quite understood the principle that democracy (our Republic) require a highly educated interested public. ONCE NPR and NPT are gone and probably BBC people will wonder how and why the "vast wasteland" identified by a 1950's FCC chairman got that way and stayed that way. Few signs of intelligent life in the MSM!

[Dan Gackle]

This is an excellent summary. Somewhat relatedly, I lament that the flow of radio interviews has ceased. Col. Lang's commentary on the unfolding events in MENA were hands-down the best analysis out there: vastly well-informed and all the better for being so succinct. It is scandalous that the public is being deprived of his voice, unless of course Col. Lang has simply chosen to make different use of his time. At least we can continue to follow (gratefully) the discourse on this website.

[Charles I]

What's left?

Armageddon and Paradise.

[Charles I]

Gee, Pat you used to make us work for our diversion.

The French have been a bit fab for the obvious colonial and immigration reasons noted by TTG et al that the US lacks. No interest, no policy

It is pathetic that the A10's and Spectres have been withdrawn. I heard radio news that the Brits, the French et al don't have the capacity for ground attack/support that seems commensurate to the task at hand.

Is it really that bad that Britain & France and a few other bits can't field the planes needed to win the day? The Brits announced deployment of mare ground attack air to Libya, Nato touted 155 sorties or some such the other day.

Can any one say?

Clifford, sovereign states and public monopolies are the only potential rivals of the global elite and capital outside of natural forces, so naturally they are anathema to our shills and beards.

[Binh]

Excellent overview. One question: if Gaddafi stays in power, will he eventually organize a Lockerbie part II to punish the U.S./U.K./France?

[Patrick Lang]

Binh

IMO that seems likely. pl

[clifford kiracofe]

Charles I,

I read in the London Telegraph the other day that the state of the Brit air force is rather dismal.

I agree with your comment anent cosmopolitan transnational elites. Alexandre Saint-Yves d"Alveydre's 19th century book on "Synarchie" gives some insight into certain elites.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_Saint-Yves_d'Alveydre

[Charles I]

Clifford, thanks very much for the reference, hope there's one in Nnglish. if I could read French, I'd be your reading GRU, Le plus Secret Des Services Sovietiques, 1918-1988.

BEEB reports NATO asking for "a few more planes" Where are those F35's when you need 'em?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13074189

Dark Crusade's review of the history of Christian Zionism was illustrative of the fecundity of a an ideology nurtured and spread by a vanguard of true believers with access to political levers, prepared to ally with serendipitous suckers, carpetbaggers and friends of ones enemies over decades, even centuries.

I'd like to be a fly on the wall for the civil war of the various elites, occultists, Zionists, Christian Zionists, Friends of Jesus, bankers, oilmen, mafiosos, despots and pimps that service them all should they establish their perverse City on the Hill. It can't be as simple as a Rapture and a 1000 year snorefest.

[clifford kiracofe]

Charles I,

I am not sure whether or not any of Saint-Yves D'Alveydre's work has been translated into English.

However, he was quite influenced by Joseph de Maistre, de Bonald, and Fabre d'Olivet. The latter was Napoleon's occult advisor and some of his work has been translated such as "Hebrew Tonque Restored."

The occultist Rene Guenon speaks of Saint-Yves.

The Martinists and other esoteric sects were influenced by Saint-Yves. One notes the penetration of various continental lodges by the Martinists etal., particularly French, during the early 20th century.

The political result of all this is a form of esoteric fascism, IMO. The Rosecrucian circle of Goering, the occultism of Hess and his link to the Golden Dawn, and so on...

[William R. Cumming]

Professor Kiracofe! Are there books in English on the topics raised in your last comment?

[Charles I]

Thanks Clifford. I've come across de Maistre and d'Oliviet and the Napoleon angle. Just now I've been re-interested in Napoleon's time in Egypt, as I'd only approached it from the military-politico-historical record rather than for the occult angle.

I'm hoping one day there will be some work done on Reagan's use of astrology for governance and politics.

[William R. Cumming]

Actually Ronnie listened to Nancy who listened to her Astrologer.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

WRC,

There are books in English relating to Nazi esotericism. The (male)swastika itself was an esoteric "Aryan" symbol for them. Ravenscroft's Spear of Destiny is one example of this type research.

Charles I,

Yes, I suppose one would look at Napoleon's lodge affiliations and the three esoteric initiations he reportedly had in Egypt...the Fabre d'Olivet angle is what to consider to begin, although relating to something a bit different.

[omen]

cspan hosted this speaker, he gave a review of past revolutions. noted due to global awakening (thanks in part to aljazeera and other media), trend is away from autocratic regimes (e.g. iranian revolution) but toward democratic models.

discussed tunisia, egypt and libya.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/299097-1

book he's written on the subject:

http://www.cqpress.com/product/Encyclopedia-Pol-Revolutions.html